Friday New Highs

There were 13 new highs today, here is the list.

These are all the industries with stocks making new highs:

Name	Stocks	NH	Percent
Electric Utilities	51	4	7.84
Diagnostic Substances	21	1	4.76
Diversified Utilities	29	1	3.45
REIT - Diversified	32	1	3.13
Gas Utilities	33	1	3.03
Drug Manufacturers - Major	36	1	2.78
Oil & Gas Pipelines	36	1	2.78
Processed & Packaged Goods	40	1	2.5
Drug Manufacturers - Other	52	1	1.92
Property & Casualty Insurance	85	1	1.18

These are the high volume advancers and decliners from the relative strength list:

Ticker	Relative Volume	Change		Ticker	Relative Volume	Change
FBNK	6.3	0.98%		THR	4.38	-6.18%
VRUS	2.08	6.56%		AVGO	1.95	-1.21%
ROST	1.81	0.38%		AEE	1.66	-1.65%
CMS	1.53	0.00%		PCLN	1.66	-5.97%
				DMND	1.64	-2.55%
				RL	1.64	-7.22%
				STMP	1.6	-3.90%

I will have a complete earnings summary this weekend.

Friday Weekly Charts

 What a better way to end the week, month, and quarter than a major whimper. The market just never got any footing today, but then again, it did not break support. Looking at the standard pivot points (which will change on Monday), it is remarkable how well price was contained in between the pivot and S1. That gives you an indication of what the computers are using for buy and sell signals. the descending 50dma is also clearly a resistance level, when we can manage to get that high. 1100 is life or death support here, and it is probably pretty likely we will see a test next week.

I didn't see any poit in trying to get some projections from the weekly chart, since we have been stuck in this range for months now. The chart looks very much like it did suing the 2010 correction, when it looked like we were about to break down before Bernanke pulled the QE2 rabbit out of his hat. It looks like the market might be waiting for him to do something like that again. With the Fed out of ammunition, it might be a long wait.

The Nasdaq was the stronger of the indexes, so it had farther to fall, and that is just what it did, and it still has plenty of room to go befoore hitting support. As long as this is lagging I can't even get a whiff of bullishness.
 

The Dow industrials had a positive week, and as i have been hammering for months, the Dow leading is bearish.

The Dow transports, on the other hand, are not only perilously close to support, they are als close to the 2010 support. there isn;t much below that.

The Russell 2000 is dnagerously close as well, and has nearly given back every penny of it's QE2 gains. And to think Bernanke was dumb enough to point t the Russell 2000 as a sign of the success of QE2. Hey, what goes around comes around.

The market is in about the same position it was in the summer of 2010, when it looked like it was about to collapse. It went the other way, and may have set up an even bigger cataclysm to come.

I will have the new highs update shortly.

ITC

ITC is a utility stock, one of the last bastions of strength in the market. This has a typical pattern I have been seeing in a lot of utilities: while price was dropping back in August, the price relative line started rising, meaning this was dropping a lot less than the rest of the market. Pice bounced back very quickly and went on to make new highs, and while today isn't rally a breakout (it did briefly hit a new high), it sure looks like a lot of money was piling in here. The problem is, eventually the market will get these, too, and there is no way to tell when.

VRUS

According to O'Neil, 75% of all stock will follow the general market trend during bear markets. VRUS is apparently one of the 25% that isn't, but how long that continues is anyone's guess.

This Week's Industry Performance

Here are the top 20 industries in percentage of stocks advancing this week. It has been a strange week, in that there have been a lot of advancing stocks, mostly weak ones, in the face of a weak market. I will re run this tomorrow with the new relative strength data, but for now it is looking like diversified utilities and general entertainment are a couple of groups to be looking at.

Market Leader Performance

Ticker	Performance (Week)	Relative Volume	Change
HITK	1.82%	0.91	4.46%
DECK	1.55%	1.08	-0.14%
MA	-0.78%	1.09	-2.26%
ULTA	-1.14%	1.09	-3.21%
HANS	-1.26%	0.41	0.93%
CROX	-2.55%	0.75	-4.50%
AAPL	-2.80%	1	-0.99%
DLLR	-3.19%	0.6	-0.14%
CMG	-3.93%	0.88	-2.00%
LULU	-4.28%	1.03	-2.72%
RGR	-6.50%	0.53	-0.48%
PSMT	-7.44%	0.5	0.27%

Here is the performance for the leadership list for the last 5 days, not including today, along with today's relative volume and change.

Price Relative Scans

I have 14 stocks showing up as 50 day breakouts (finviz screen here). I have 33 showing up as 20 day breakouts (here), but some of these popped up yesterday as well, so it appears I am either reading the 20 day data wrong or have the spreadsheet formula incorrect. I am pretty confident the 50 day breakouts are correct.

Today's Pivot Points

Floor		Woodie's		Camarilla		Demark
R3	1213.48	R2	1195.09	R4	1180.17	High	1186.11
R2	1194.67	R1	1178.37	R3	1170.28	Low	1150.17
R1	1177.54	P	1159.15	R2	1166.99
P	1158.73	S1	1142.43	R1	1163.69
S1	1141.6	S2	1123.21	S1	1157.11
S2	1122.79			S2	1153.81
S3	1105.66			S3	1150.52
				S4	1140.63

Friday Morning Update

It looks like 1140 is going to be the key level today, and we came right down to test is frst thing this morning. If that holds and serves as a launching pad for a move up, that would be a very encouraging development (although not quite enough to turn me bullish). I;m ignoring the news today as the on again-off again bailout of Greece is getting very annoying. the leading sector is XLP, with XLF and XLB the laggards. The Nasdaq has quit lagging for now and is about even, but the Russell 2000 has a slight lead. Oil is down, gold up, treasury yields down.

I have all of 3 new highs so far, no breakouts, and nothing reporting today. It looks like I an go back to sleep.

Thursday New Highs

There were 8 new highs today, here is the list.

These are all the industries with stocks making new highs:

Name	Stocks	Nh	Percent
Auto Parts Stores	5	1	20
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing	29	1	3.45
Oil & Gas Pipelines	36	1	2.78
Processed & Packaged Goods	40	1	2.5
Drug Manufacturers - Other	52	1	1.92
Medical Instruments & Supplies	72	1	1.39
Property & Casualty Insurance	85	1	1.18
Business Services	102	1	0.98

These are the high volume advancers and decliners from the relative strength list:

Advancers				Decliners
Ticker	Relative Volume	Change		Ticker	Relative Volume	Change
DMND	2.74	2.16%		RGR	2.24	-6.92%
AVGO	1.86	0.48%		PCLN	1.84	-4.03%
BBBY	1.61	0.99%		LQDT	1.77	-3.01%
				DFS	1.66	-1.17%
				HLF	1.62	-3.04%
				AMZN	1.55	-3.16%
				PCYC	1.54	-1.98%
				GMCR	1.54	-7.21%
				ACTG	1.53	-1.29%
				SBUX	1.5	-3.20%

I have nothing scheduled to report the rest of this week.

Market Weakness On Parade

 Ok, I know we gaped up this morning,and I know we got a little rally into the close to get us positive, but I looked at my screens today and was just amazed at the bearish action I was seeing. From the collapses in the market leaders, or the lacks of new highs, and the lack of leading inustries,  it was just really hard to get enthusiastic about anything I saw. About the only positive thing I can say is that we are in the supports zone, but i can; say how long that will continue to be support. I suspect not very much longer. 

What was really bearish was that the strongest parts of the market were getting slammed. the Nasdaq 100, in particular, took a terrible beating today, but it did bounce off support at it's most recent low. the Nasdaq has now been lagging for a few days, so it is developing a trend here, and that isn't good.

 If there was good news today, it was the that the Russell 2000 held up quite well, but it was in a position where it had to. I see nothing on this chart that leads me to believe this won't start leading the next leg down within a few days.

The recovery in the percentage of stocks above the 50dma on the Nasdaq appears to be over for now, and it looks like it is trending down again. We will have to see what happens here if the market starts moving down again; if it stays above about 10 or so, that could be an indication of internal strengthening in the market.

The same indicator in the NYSE, which is quite a bit weaker than the Nasdaq, although the Nasdaq may be playing catch up here.

The market is flashing bearish signals all over the place. In fact, they are getting so numerous I am starting to smell a potential bear trap coming up. If we break support here and start another leg down, everyone from the Fed to CNBC is going to kick out the stops in trying to sucker the buyers back. It might work, for a day or two, but everything i;m seeing says we are in trouble here.

I will have the new highs update shortly.

Today's Leading Industry

These are the industries with 75% or more of their tocks advancing today.

These are all the industries with stocks making new highs.

Diversified utilities is currently one of, if not the, strongest industry in the market, and this is what it looks like. This gives you a real good idea just what shape the market is in right now.

Market Leadership

Ticker	50-Day Simple Moving Average	52-Week High	Relative Strength Index (14)	Change	Change from Open	Gap	Relative Volume
RGR	-7.35%	-26.97%	38.91	-7.40%	-8.47%	1.17%	1.8
LULU	-7.66%	-19.94%	40.15	-3.08%	-5.23%	2.27%	1.17
PSMT	1.66%	-16.33%	42.55	-4.31%	-6.13%	1.93%	1.13
CROX	-7.78%	-22.08%	41.69	-3.80%	-6.61%	3.00%	1.08
CMG	-0.81%	-10.27%	45.81	-2.48%	-3.91%	1.49%	1.01
DECK	4.29%	-9.61%	49.12	-3.88%	-5.65%	1.88%	1
AAPL	2.02%	-6.97%	49.63	-0.91%	-2.14%	1.26%	0.93
ULTA	7.10%	-11.58%	50.22	-2.83%	-4.71%	1.98%	0.81
DLLR	3.02%	-11.53%	47.33	-0.27%	-1.70%	1.45%	0.56
MA	0.96%	-9.64%	48.55	-0.84%	-2.77%	1.99%	0.53
HITK	13.58%	-5.99%	60.27	0.00%	-1.43%	1.45%	0.37
HANS	7.19%	-6.06%	55.62	-0.43%	-2.18%	1.79%	0.36

Holy cow, talk about non confirmation. The leaders are definitely not confirming today's up move in the market, and what is wore is that many of them gapped up this morning and have had very nasty reversals. RGR is now breaking dwon anf looks like it is done; LULU has already broken down and is continuing that move today. PSMT is also fropping big but has so far held the 50dma. Forunately for all of them volume is relatively light.

Here is a link to the charts.

Price Relative Scans

I have 14 50 day price relative breakouts (finviz screen here) and 33 20 day breakouts (here). On the second spreadsheet I have BWLD with a 20 day breakout.

Today's Pivot Points

Floor		Woodie's		Camarilla		Pivots
R3	1208.02	R2	1193.62	R4	1169.93	High	1167.89
R2	1196.37	R1	1168.22	R3	1160.5	Low	1133.58
R1	1173.71	P	1159.31	R2	1157.35
P	1162.06	S1	1133.91	R1	1154.21
S1	1139.4	S2	1125	S1	1147.91
S2	1127.75			S2	1144.77
S3	1105.09			S3	1141.62
				S4	1132.19

Thursday Morning Update

Yesterday's drop stopped right at 1150, which is now looking like an intraday support level, nd we bounced up this morning, right into resistance at 1175. it seems the range we are in is becoming narrow, which probably means a big move is coming. XLF s leading big this morning, which may mean this more than short covering, but I haven't seen the news this morning, so I haven't hear the bailout of the day. Lagging are XLY and XLB. The Nasdaq is lagging pretty badly, the Russell 2000 is about even. Oil is up, gold down, treasury yields mixed with the 10 year up and the 30 year down.

I have 8 new highs so far and I don't see any breakouts. I have nothing reporting today either.

Wednesday New Highs

There were 12 new highs today, here is the list.

Here are all the industries with stocks making new highs:

Name	Stocks	NH	Percent
Electric Utilities	51	2	3.92
Processed & Packaged Goods	40	2	5
Biotechnology	165	1	0.61
Home Health Care	10	1	10
Internet Software & Services	28	1	3.57
Medical Appliances & Equipment	82	1	1.22
Multimedia & Graphics Software	25	1	4
Oil & Gas Pipelines	36	1	2.78
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing	29	1	3.45
Specialty Retail, Other	35	1	2.86

These are the high volume advancers and decliners from the relative strength list:

Advancers				Decliners
Ticker	Relative Volume	Change		Ticker	Relative Volume	Change
LQDT	3.46	11.38%		AVGO	4.25	-4.29%
BMRN	2.8	3.15%		DMND	3.75	-2.32%
AMZN	2.46	2.45%		HSNI	2.44	-1.59%
STMP	1.98	0.05%		OPTR	2.22	-7.12%

I have nothing scheduled to report after the close.

A Text Book Bear Market

 One thing I have learned since discovering the Elder impulse charts a few months ago: do not trust sell signals in bull markets. Converely, I would have to say that you can't trust buy signals in bear markets, and today was a good illustration of that. We did flash the green bar yesterday, but without follow through you would have to have been out of your mind to buy. Sure enough, we got more selling today, although volume was pretty low. Everyone is waiting to see what will happen when we dip below 1140. One ominous sign: even the simple 200dma, the slowest to change trends, is now declining. 

I was waiting for another test of the 50dma on the SPX, which never came, but had i been payin g attention to the Nasdaq, I would have seen the failure there, I actually expected this to get well above, and perhaps even test the 200, but it did not happen. this had a developing uptrend line which is now broken: we got briefl back above it yesterday, but dropped back below it today. That is not a good sign.

I don;t look at the NYSE composite chart very often, but when I looked at it today it was quite frightening. This is definitely in a bear market (the others are somewhat debatable), and is now in a position where it does not have a lot of support. What is worse is that this has vicious resistance at the 20dema.

XLU i still the leading sector by RSI, and is actually in a new, higher trading range than it was in August. While I would not call this bullish, it is holding up incredibly well. The problem is, if this bear market continues (and the probabilities are it will), they will come and get these, too.

XLE is the weakest sector by RSI, but it has close competition from XLB. XLF and XLI have risen from the bottom by default, still very weak but not as weak as this. This is what a bear market looks like.

What we are seeing is near textbook bear market action, and now the 200dma is starting to drop. The 4th quarter of 2011 is about to begin, and it may be a long quarter.

I will have the new highs update shortly.

LQDT

LQDT popped on an upgrade today, but this is actually a follow on move after a previous breakout. Despite what looks like a pretty strong chart, the price relative line, other than a couple of big moves up, really has not been rising. If the pivot points I have here are correct (very debatable) then this hit it's projected target today, meaning it is a low probability to go higher. CMF, however, has been very positive for the last 6 months, and this has been undergoing some accumulation. I wouldn't be a buyer here, but a stock that has been moving up in the face of a bear market certainly should be investigated.

Today's Leading Industry

Here are the industries with 35% or more of their stoks advancing today.

 These are the industries with stocks making new highs.

 We have already reached the point where the number of new highs is of no help tous in trying to find industry strnegth. Catalog and mail order houses is another of the weak groups that seem to be holding up well during this correection, but that culd be deceptive, as it doesn't have much room below it. This is a 14 stock group, most of which has been blasted recently, but their are a few holding up very well (AMZN being the most notable).

Market Leadership

Ticker	50-Day Simple Moving Average	52-Week High	Relative Strength Index (14)	Change	Change from Open	Gap	Relative Volume
DECK	9.66%	-5.04%	56.98	-0.04%	0.28%	-0.32%	0.92
RGR	4.06%	-18.32%	48.44	-4.08%	-4.35%	0.29%	0.9
CROX	-1.21%	-16.48%	47.7	-2.48%	-2.83%	0.36%	0.89
AAPL	4.00%	-5.26%	54.46	0.34%	0.04%	0.30%	0.86
LULU	-2.19%	-14.89%	45.79	-1.75%	-2.49%	0.75%	0.79
DLLR	6.23%	-8.80%	51.56	-1.56%	-1.82%	0.26%	0.78
CMG	3.09%	-6.66%	53.13	0.96%	0.38%	0.58%	0.77
HANS	10.35%	-3.48%	60.71	1.08%	0.49%	0.59%	0.62
PSMT	8.33%	-11.02%	50.41	-0.21%	-0.49%	0.28%	0.57
HITK	15.59%	-4.49%	62.93	-1.49%	-1.09%	-0.41%	0.52
ULTA	13.18%	-6.61%	57.74	-1.30%	-1.55%	0.26%	0.5
MA	3.92%	-7.09%	52.88	-0.54%	-0.53%	-0.01%	0.5

Like the general market, the leadership is doing a whole lot of nothing today. So far none are getting decent volume, none are making really significant moves, and none are at new highs.

Here is a link to the charts.

Quarterly Earnings List Revision

Here are the changes to the earnings list for next quarter:

Removed - SKT, ESLT, FSYS, KIRK, POWL, and TNDM

SKT now has a float larger than 50 million. The rest all have 5 consecutive quarters of negative growth.

Added - AHGP, CLH, CTCT, HITK, NUVA, and SUSS

There weren't a lot of good candidates this quarter. HITK was removed because it was on the list of Chinee reverse mergers, but it still has good numbers and I have not seen any negative news on it.

The spreadsheet will be updated this weekend.

Price Relative Scans

I have 19 50 day breakouts in price relative (finviz screen here) and 56 20 day breakouts (here). On the 2nd spreadsheet, I have a 20 day breakout in HITK.