Monday New Highs

There were 63 new highs today, here is the list.

These are the top 10 industries in percentage of stocks making new highs:

Name	Stocks	NH	Percent
REIT - Healthcare Facilities	11	3	27.27
Appliances	6	1	16.67
Home Furnishing Stores	6	1	16.67
Oil & Gas Pipelines	36	6	16.67
Gaming Activities	7	1	14.29
Recreational Vehicles	7	1	14.29
Major Airlines	8	1	12.5
Small Tools & Accessories	8	1	12.5
Drug Stores	9	1	11.11
Textile - Apparel Clothing	29	3	10.34

These are the high volume advancers and decliners on the relative strength list:

Advancers				Decliners
Ticker	Relative Volume	Change		Ticker	Relative Volume	Change
SWI	2.51	1.51%		STMP	2.65	-0.52%
PII	1.69	1.00%		LNG	2.43	-3.94%

After the close I have reports from SM, not trading after hours; CAVM, down 9%; and CVI, not trading. I am still working on finding earnings dates for all the stocks that I had scheduled for this morning but did not report.

Europe Is Saved - Wait, No It Isn't

 I did not even try to follow the debt situation in Europe, as it is just about impossible to get any really accurate information, and the situation changes way too fast. I expected last week's deal to fall apart over the weekend , and apparently it did, as the market really took a dive. Volume was low (the volume here might be revised higher, which will be enough for a distribution day, but volume was low on mot of the stocks I was watching as well), so this may be a one day drop, but it does appear that the market has found another resistance level as we get into the last area of price congestion. 

 The Nasdaq hit that same area of price congestion, and had the same response. Volume was low here as well. CMF is quite high both here and on the SPX, so it is unlikely that the big money boys are pushing the panic button yet.
 

Both the Nasdaq and Dow industrials have been essentailly flat in price relative for about a month, a situation that can best be described as neutral, which is strnge considering that thi last mnth was the 12th best month in market history (I only saw a headline, I did not read the story, but apparently October was the 12th best month in history). Either the Nasdaq/Dow indicator no longer works, or this rally is about to fail.

If the Russell 2000 is a reliable indicator (normally it is, but this time might "be different"), then it will fail. This came right up the the 200dma, almost to the penny, and was thrown right back, and what's worse, the prie relative line is lower than it was back in August, when price was quite a bit lower. At least in the short term, it looks like we are in for some weakness.

What looked like a decent pullback turned into a rout going into the close, and it still may turn out to be a small pullback, but mney flew into treasuries today, the 30 year yield dropping 4.5% and the 10 year over 5%. That usually does not happen in pullbacks, but, this time might be different. Yeah, right.

I will have the new highs update shortly.

PIR

PIR tried a breakout today from what looks like a double bottom base, but it's not valid since the second leg down did not undercut the first. This has a troubling anomaly: a strong price relative line between August and September, but weak since then. I don't know if that will hamper it from going higher, but it certainly won't help it. 

HUM

HUM was the breakout of the day, and this one does appear to be a valid double bottom base, the breakout point being the blue line just above the middle pivot point. The price relative line took a pretty good dive this month, but has come back very strongly. The only complaint I have here is that it closed way off the day's high.

HLF

HLF hit a new high by 5 cents, and got higher volume than yesterday, so technically you can call this a breakout failure. that is, unless you go by the O;Neil system: this appears to qualify as a double bottom base, making the breakout point the high of the middle of the "W". That being the case, the breakout came yesterday, and looking at the gain it made, that makes sense. Here is another one that outperformed the market in August and September, underperformed in October, and is now outperforming again.

Today's Leading Industry

Here are the industries with 50% or more of their stocks advancing today.

Here are the industries with  10% or more of their stocks making new highs.

We may get an opportunity here to see where the strength is currently in the market. Home furnishing stores is among the leaders bith in stocks advancing and in making new highs, but not in relative strength. One of the problems here is that it is a small group, only 6 stocks, so it will make large percentage moves, meaning only one stock moving into the rellative strength range will put this among the leaders. there are 2 strong stocks here, PIR and BBBY, with 4 relatively weak ones. The weak ones, however, appear to have bottomed and are now moving up. There may be some opportunities in this group.

Market Leadership

Ticker	50-Day Simple Moving Average	52-Week High	Change	Shares Float	Insider Ownership	Insider Transactions	Institutional Ownership	Institutional Transactions	Float Short	Relative Volume
QCOR	37.41%	-2.66%	-1.03%	58.08	0.52%	-68.21%	94.31%	0.42%	10.31%	1.26
CMG	7.99%	-2.47%	-0.93%	30.77	1.69%	-1.86%	82.50%	-0.12%	9.89%	1.26
SPRD	30.31%	-0.08%	0.35%	46.99	5.40%		38.48%	-5.97%	5.50%	1.13
CRI	19.99%	-3.87%	-3.15%	57.61	2.21%			1.99%	9.48%	1.08
DECK	21.93%	-0.59%	-0.35%	37.33	3.81%	-9.27%	99.09%	0.32%	12.05%	0.96
LULU	8.01%	-10.48%	-0.36%	99.87	0.14%	-9.72%		1.01%	14.37%	0.91
CLB	5.85%	-7.74%	-3.33%	45.9	2.28%	-0.91%		-7.61%	9.49%	0.7
ULTA	5.89%	-7.71%	1.13%	47.03	2.55%	-3.69%	76.60%	-0.72%	4.16%	0.67
AAPL	3.94%	-4.69%	0.43%	923.43	0.02%	-9.71%	70.37%	0.38%	1.30%	0.62
BWLD	9.37%	-4.24%	1.48%	18.07	1.43%	-13.23%	81.27%	-0.40%	13.47%	0.62
HITK	13.11%	-4.27%	-1.87%	9.44	0.27%	40.90%	66.38%	3.67%	16.50%	0.49
PSMT	14.30%	-1.97%	1.33%	18.55	10.30%	-32.46%	55.60%	1.59%	7.98%	0.36

Here is the first look at this week's market leadership. None are so far getting more that 1.5 times averge volume, with the leaders being QCOR and CMG, both down, and SPRD, which is up marginally. None have especially high percentages of the float short, so I am not anticipating any short squeezes. I have none of these scheduled to report this week.

Here is a link to the charts.

This Week's Economic Reports

Here are the economic reports scheduled for this week.

Here are the treasury auctions scheduled this week.

Price Relative Scans

I have 8 100 day breakouts in price relative (Finviz screen here), 16 50 day breakouts (here), and 21 20 day breakouts (here). I have DECK as a 20 day breakout on the second spreadsheet.

Today's Pivot Points

Floor		Woodie's		Camarilla		Demark
R3	1299.18	R2	1293.64	R4	1290.63	High	1291.12
R2	1293.13	R1	1290.13	R3	1287.86	Low	1281.05
R1	1289.11	P	1283.57	R2	1286.94
P	1283.06	S1	1280.06	R1	1286.01
S1	1279.04	S2	1273.5	S1	1284.17
S2	1272.99			S2	1283.24
S3	1268.97			S3	1282.32
				S4	1279.55

These are the daily pivots from Friday.

Floor		Woodie's		Camarilla		Demark
R3	1383.08	R2	1342.58	R4	1324.47	High	1324.68
R2	1337.87	R1	1320.89	R3	1304.78	Low	1253.08
R1	1311.48	P	1270.98	R2	1298.22
P	1266.27	S1	1249.29	R1	1291.65
S1	1239.88	S2	1199.38	S1	1278.53
S2	1194.67			S2	1271.96
S3	1168.28			S3	1265.4
				S4	1245.71

Thee are the weekly pivots from last week.

Monday Morning Update

Live by the bailout, die by the bailout. This weekend I saw a few headlines that basically said the "sure thing" Euro bailout wasn't so sure after all, and I expected a drop this morning, but so far it has been pretty subdued. 1257 is our first major support level, which we so far haven't come close to, and 1274 should be the first resistance level for any bounce. Leading sectors this morning are XLU, XLP, and XLV. Lagging are XLB, XLE, and XLF. The Nasdaq is about even this morning, the Russell 2000 is lagging badly. Oil and gold are down, treasury yields down big and dropping.

I have 12 new highs so far, with breakouts in HUM, HRBN, and DPM. Out of all the stocks that I had scheduled to report this morning, I have a grand total of one actually reporting: CKSW, which is up 1.8%. I have SM and CAVM confirmed now to report after the close. I will try to get more confirmations before the close.

Earnings Schedule This Week

Out of the frying pan, into the fire. Here is what I have so far for this week's earnings schedule. i expect revisions this week, and will post them as I can. If all the stocks I have scheduled for tomorrow actually report, it is going to be a long day.

Earnings Growth Charts

We had a bunch of stocks from the earnings list reporting this week, far to many for me to get graphed and posted today, so I picked the 6 I thought would be most of interest and will try to get some of the others posted later in the quarter when reports slow down. The charts still have some minor problems, but fixing them will take too much time right now, so that will also have to wait for things to slow down. In the top panel, the red line is quarterly EPS growth rate, black is quarterly revenue growth rate. In the middle the red line is quarterly EPS, black price, green quarterly revenue, and blue price relative to SPX. I have one stock reprting the end of a fiscal year, so the large red bars on it are annual EPS. At the bottom the black bars are volume.

CAP is first up. It is a recent addition to the list and reported accelerating earnings growth. It has pulled back with the rest of the market, but the pullback has been very big. This did have a decline in EPS and revenue growth last quarter, but not enough to justify the collapse in price. I don't know if this quarter will be enough to reverse the trend, but overall the trend in EPS and revenue is still up, so this will be a real good one to keep an eye on.

DECK also reported accelerating growth. this is one I have been keeping close track of since it is a current market leader. One thing that sticks out here is the increase in volatility both in EPS and price in recent quarters. This one could be a candidate for the next NFLX type collapse.

HWKN recently took a pretty big hit on EPS right after a pretty big drop in revenue, and price responded accordingly. It posted accelerating growth this quarter, but that was only because it was coming off a negative quarter. I might start building the right side of a base, but unless EPS growth picks up, it is not going to go anywhere.

ISSI reported triple digit growth this quarter. This has been in a very long base and could be starting the right side now. This has pretty inconsistent earnings, but the lng term trend is up.

TYL has been in a pretty monstrous uptrend for 5 years. Growth is slowing down a bit, but still high, and price is now accelerating to the upside. I had been watching this for quite some time waiting for an entry point, and when I wasn't watching I got one and missed it.

 f

VLTR also reported accelerating growth. looking at the top panel sure looks like the growth rate cycles, and we are no cming off the trough of the cycle. If that pattern holds, this should start movving up again and will likely break out, probably after next quarter's report,

Occupy Wall Street Scorecard

Here are the latest developments in the Occupy Wall Street (and everywhere else) drama -

October 25th - Oakland Police crack down on the Occupy Oakland protest, using tear gas and rubber bullets. Several injuries were reported, including former Marine and Iraq war veteran Scott Olson, critically injured when struck in the head by a tear gas cannister fired at close range. A police officer can be seen on video tossing a flash grenade at protesters coming to Olson's assistance. The mayor, who initially called the police action "justified", quickly changed her mind when the videos surfaced, and the Oakland Chief of Police resigned. Occupy Oakland has resumed their occupation.The reponse from the Obama administration has been deafening.

Also October 25th - Occupy Atlanta was forcibly evicted from their camps, with no violence reported but several arrests made, Occupy Atlanta has now moved to the Federally owned Martin Luther King, Jr, national historic site, out of the jurisdiction of the Atlanta police.

October 28th - New York police and Fire Deptartment official siezed gasoline powered electrical generators, citing them as a fire hazard, just in time for the cold weather to hit. No violence or arrests were reported.

Also October 28th - The Tennessee Highway Patrol begin a crackdown of Occupy Nashville, making dozens of arrests. Later that day a judge orders them freed, saying the police had no grounds for making the arrests.

And again, October 28th - San Diego Police wearing riot gear come into the Occupy San Diego camp at 2:30 am, tearing down tents and arresting 51 protesters. More tents and protesters were back in front of the Civic Center early Friday morning.

We appear to be entering the phase where the Powers That Be are getting nervous. When they start using force, that means they are approaching panic. Ultimately, the use of force will be the final nail in the coffin, as Mubarak and Ghaddafi could tell you.

New Leadership Scan

Ticker	Price as a % of 52 Wk H-L Range	EPS growth past 5 years	Return on Equity	50-Day Simple Moving Average	200-Day Simple Moving Average	20 day v/ms	X
DECK	100	0.38	0.24	0.23	0.32	36.75	0.09
LULU	86.04	1.41	0.39	0.09	0.2	32.77	0.11
BWLD	86.02	0.33	0.17	0.08	0.12	32.66	0.04
CMG	99.18	0.32	0.23	0.09	0.2	32.09	0.11
AAPL	85.8	0.65	0.42	0.04	0.13	25.09	0.09
SPRD	100	0.52	0.57	0.32	0.38	22.77	0.06
QCOR	100	0.42	0.36	0.41	0.85	20.44	0.44
ULTA	87.44	0.79	0.23	0.05	0.23	20	0.18
HITK	100	0.32	0.29	0.17	0.36	18.96	0.19
PSMT	97.96	0.51	0.18	0.14	0.54	16.81	0.4
CRI	100	0.27	0.19	0.25	0.31	15.21	0.06
CLB	89.6	0.4	0.21	0.1	0.12	14.37	0.02

This week I had 12 stocks make the leadership scan without relaxing any standards. CLB is new this week, but it has been on the list before. Noticeably absent is HANS., which just missed by 2% on the first category.

Earnings Summary

I had 20 stocks from the earnings list reporting this week, but one of them, RNOW, is being acquired and will no longer be tracked:

Reporting a quarter of accelerating earnings growth - VLTR, ISSI, TYL, LL, CAP, HWKN, DECK, AHGP

Reporting a quarter of decelerating growth - ARB, AXTI, CTCT

Reporting a quarter of negative growth - ININ, VECO, DDIC, CPLA, ALGT, IVC, NANO, NUVA

In addition, ISSI reported triple digit growth.

All spreadsheets are now updated and uploaded.

Relative Strength By Industry

Here are the top 30 industries in percentage of stocks in the relative strength range this week. All categories have the top 10 industries highlighted except for the last column, the percentage of stocks advancing for the week, which had about 40 groups with 100% of their stocks advancing, so i did not see any point in highlighting them. Last week the leading groups had all lost ground for the week, a very strange ourance, but that has reversed this week: most of the leaders are also leading in one week change. One group to take a look at is oil and gas pipelines, formerly the strongest group in the market that took a severs bashing during the last correction. It appears to be rapidly gaining strength.

Relative Strength Scans

Here are the results of this week's relative strength scan. There are about 780 stocks in the top 25% of their 52 week price ranges, a big increase from last week. From left to right, the first three columns are the stocks from last week retained this week, the next 2 are the new stocks this week, and the last 2 are the stocks dropping off this week's list.

The spreadsheet will be uploaded later today.

Retained			New		Off
AAPL	JWN	SNDK	ATW	PCLN	ACC	MLNX
ADS	LAD	SPRD	BIRT	PNRA	AKRX	MTZ
ANF	LIZ	STMP	BKE	RFMD	AMZN	NNN
ARIA	M	SWI	CFX	RIC	BJRI	NUS
ATVI	MAKO	SYNA	CLD	SAH	CMS	ORIT
BWLD	MITK	TPX	CVV	SHW	CPHD	OXM
CBST	MRGE	TSO	DDS	STX	CRI	PCYC
CMG	MRX	UA	DEI	TEL	DLR	PNM
CMTL	NI	ULTA	DKS	TIBX	EDR	REGN
COG	NUAN	VRUS	DTLK	TIF	EL	RHT
CVI	OPK	WMB	EXK	TIVO	ESS	RNOW
DECK	PII	WPRT	FIO	TNH	GLNG	SAFM
DK	PIR		FRAN	TTWO	HFC	SKT
DPZ	PSMT		GME	VMW	HLF	TRLG
DSW	PVH		GPOR	WTW	HSNI	TSN
ERTS	QCOR		HLX	WYN	HXL	WMGI
FBNK	REXX		JBL		INTC
GCO	RL		KLAC		KSS
GTLS	RRC		KOG		LO
HANS	SCSS		LNG		LQDT
HITK	SFD		LULU		LTD
HOS	SGEN		NR		MAT
HOTT	SIMO		ONXX		MDCO
JAZZ	SM		OPTR		MG

Leader Charts

We had another big week on the leadership list, with all but one making gains on the week, including 5 gaining over 10%. Having said that, it should also be noted that, by and large, the leaders are still under performing the market and bullish base patterns are few and fare in between. QCOR was the biggest gainer, and staged a big breakout on earnings. This is one of the few bullish charts among the bunch, and it is in the process of establishing a new trading range. So fat it has held the gains made on the breakout, so no one is in a hurry to take profits here. If it trades sideways for another week or two, it may be preparing for another move up. That gap will probably be eventually filled but that could be a long ways off.
 

 RNOW was the second biggest gainer, but that was an acquisition. CRI was the third biggest gainer, also breaking out big on earnings. This formed a short up and handle pattern, and last Friday (the blue arrows represent last Friday's candle) was in a perfect entry point had this not been scheduled to report the next week. It is also holding on to the gains it made in the breakout, so this one may also form the bullish flag pattern.The price relative line is not that impressive, but comparing it to the other stocks on the list, it is probably the bet looking one.

 

ULTA was the only stock to register a decline this week, and it was less than 1%. It is also in a cup and hadle pattern, but this one really looks awful. The price relative line has been declining for almost two months, and other than a bump early this month (after a near collapse), has not participated in the overall market rally. The handle has that big gash in it, which is pretty typical of what I have been seeing lately, but that hasn't stopped other stocks from breaking out, but this looks like it is unlikely to do anything until the next earnings date.

CMG was the stick with the smallest gain, so it qualifies as the second biggest "decliner". The price relative line did drop, so compared to the overall market this did decline. This reported last Friday, made a pretty big move up, but failed to break out, and is now consolidating right under resistance. On the positive side it has not dropped from there, and if we have another "rip your face off" rally in the market, this could break out, but I doubt it will outperform the market. Eventually it should begin leading again, but right now it seems the market is a little tentative about this one.

Friday New Highs

There were 131 new highs today, here is the list.

These are the top 10 industries in percentage of stocks making new highs:

Name	Stocks	RS	Percent
Cigarettes	7	2	28.57
Gaming Activities	7	2	28.57
Auto Parts Stores	5	1	20
Auto Parts Wholesale	5	1	20
Lumber, Wood Production	5	1	20
Meat Products	10	2	20
REIT - Healthcare Facilities	11	2	18.18
Sporting Activities	6	1	16.67
Air Services, Other	7	1	14.29
Beverages - Wineries & Distillers	7	1	14.29
Recreational Vehicles	7	1	14.29

These are the high volume advancers from the relative strength list. There were no high volume decliners:

Advancers
Ticker	Relative Volume	Change
STMP	6.46	26.32%
DECK	2.35	10.81%
SWI	2.33	1.90%
HOS	1.61	2.84%
HLF	1.57	3.95%
NI	1.52	0.54%

I will have a (hopefully) complete earnings summary this weekend.

Friday Weekly Charts

Coming off one of the biggest gaines of the year, and being a friday, today was expected to be a quiet day, and for once it was, with not much happening. I did not annotate the chart so the standard pivot points would be more visible.  As you can see, we blew right threw the R2 level yesterday, and since there is no R3 calculated, we have virtually no resistance. The bad news, though, is the month is just about over, and we get new pivots on Tuesday. the other reason i didn;t annotate the chart is because I have no idea where we will see the next resistance, which may be a news event more than a technical event. 

Last week's weekly chart had "buy" written all over it, and it came through this week. It is now above the 40 week average, which puts it, if not in a bull market, at least at the end of a bear. Stochastics and MACD both have lots of room to move up, so there isn;t anything to stop the advance until it gets to 1370.

Crude oil has yet to break the 40 week, and may have some resistance there, but did get above an important pivot point at 90. The next level to watch is going to be about 105. With another FOMC decision, and the possibility of QE3, this is highly likely to test it, and if we do get QE3, break it.

 The correction in gold also appears to be over, but this is a long way from making a new high, and will need a big boost from the Fed to get there. This has not seriously challenged the 40 week line in almost 3 years, so the lesson here is, whenever it gets anywhere near it, buy.

The yield on the 10 year treasury, which has been interfered with unmercifully, is not going along with the recovery story. While it did get a pretty good bounce in the last month, this charts shows that, in comparison to the last 3 years, it was pretty weak. this is still barely above levels it was at during the panic of 2008.

The US dollar, on the other hand, did not move up much in the latest recession scare, and is now dropping like a rock again. This is good for stock prices (and prices of just about everything else priced in dollars), and if you don;t eat or use energy, you are in really good shape.

It appears the market is expecting something big from the Fed next week, and unlike last time, I don;t expect Bernanke to disappoint them. We are now close enough to next years election that juicing the markets now will have an effect, and Bernanke probably sees very little chance of keeping his job if a Republican becomes President. However, I really question just how much another round of QE can keep the markets going. But then again, I don't have a Ph.D.

I will have the new highs update shortly.