Wednesday New Highs

There were 141 new highs today, here is the list.

These are the top 10 industries in percentage of stocks making new highs:

Name	Stocks	NH	Percent
Tobacco Products, Other	2	1	50
Cigarettes	7	3	42.86
Water Utilities	11	3	27.27
Home Improvement Stores	4	1	25
Industrial Equipment Wholesale	12	3	25
Small Tools & Accessories	8	2	25
Specialty Eateries	4	1	25
Meat Products	9	2	22.22
Diversified Utilities	29	6	20.69
Auto Parts Wholesale	5	1	20
Cement	5	1	20
Cleaning Products	5	1	20

These are the high volume advancers and decliners from the relative strength list:

Ticker	Relative Volume	Change		Ticker	Relative Volume	Change
DXPE	4.87	3.88%		HAIN	2.17	-0.16%
HSTM	4.74	4.39%		ROST	1.7	-0.35%
GNC	4.6	0.15%
PCYC	3.9	6.21%
DLR	3.79	0.57%
KSU	3.74	1.36%
TDG	3.66	4.16%
RDEN	3.07	10.53%
ACGL	2.58	2.39%
PRIM	2.49	1.94%
ULTA	2.48	1.84%
BTH	2.29	5.09%
AKRX	2.26	3.86%
SAFM	2.2	0.86%
INHX	2.18	6.57%
UVV	2.12	2.07%
PZZA	2.11	0.32%
MANH	2.09	3.56%
VRSK	1.98	5.14%
ABMD	1.92	6.22%
TSN	1.92	2.34%
TRLG	1.91	4.98%
EXR	1.9	4.60%
PNM	1.84	4.54%
TASR	1.81	3.26%
KEX	1.81	2.59%
BBW	1.81	1.65%
SCSS	1.76	2.77%
CONN	1.6	3.39%
TAXI	1.6	1.73%
FICO	1.59	6.59%
IDIX	1.56	2.29%
DLTR	1.55	2.22%
ARG	1.54	5.69%
SONO	1.53	2.88%
MDF	1.5	4.02%

I have nothing scheduled to report after the close.

Band Aid On A Brain Tumor

We are a day early, but we got what would be considered a follow through day today.On the elder impulse chart, whcih does not wait the requisite 4 days, we got a definite by signal today, and we have now confirmed the reversal off the triangle break down that I had given up on (thank God I was traveling Friday morning, had I been online I probably would have dumped everything and gone to cash).According to what Bulkowski says about the pattern, the target price here is roughly 1350, and considering we are now going into December, that is quite realistic.

Oh, the reason for today's humongous move? Dollar swaps with European banks (please don;t ask me to explain that). In essence, we are supplying liquidity to Europe, which actually has a solvency, not liquidity, problem (thus putting a band aid on a brain tumor). The result? Get ready for inflation. Lots of it. What that has to do with the Nasdaq I don;t know, but the Nasdaq is, despite the big gap today, in trouble. Prie relative broke down today, which is not normal for a rally and could lead us to a rally failure, at least in my experience. There is a first time for everything, and this may be the first Nasdaq-lagging rally in known history, but I doubt it. 
 

At least the Russell 2000 went gangbusters today. I have been watching this for a break down in price relative, but now I am watching for a break out. If this leads, it may be enough to overcome the Nasdaq weakness.

Ticker	Relative Strength Index (14)
XLP	63.58
XLI	60.77
XLV	60.1
XLE	59.88
XLU	59.38
XLB	58.56
XLY	57.82
XLK	55.48
XLF	54.6

Here are the sectors ranked by RSI. The only surpise I see is that I expected XLE to rank higher.

XLP is a lot stronger than I expected it to be. It is currently underperforming the market, which it should during rip your face off rallies, but is still incredibly strong. I broke out past a 6 month level of resistance today, and is probably in the process of forming a new trading range.

Bernanke is going to have to trash the dollar to save the banks, there doesn't seem to be any alternative (other than the right one, which is haul them away in handcuffs). They jumped bug today, as they will do any time the word "bailout" hits the news wires, but take away today's move (which can easily be erased at any time) and this is not only under performing the market, it is getting near oblivion levels. Unfortunately Hank Paulson is no longer Treasury Secretary, so I'm not getting any hot tips here.

Wednesday is the only day I can;t watch the IBD market wrap video, and I really want to see what they say about today. I don;t remember is O'Neil explains in his book why we have to wait until day 4, but his rules are based on a humongous amount of research, so I don't argue with him,

I will have the new highs update shortly.

RDEN

Again the theme today is relative strength. RDEN had a breakout in price relative a few days ago, despite the fact that price was dropping. It actually undercut the 50dma by a bit, but promptly got back over it and made a move up, followed by today's breakout. Here is a really good example of a stock which is showing strength during market weakness, then taking off when the market turns.

ATRO

ATRO had a brekout in price relative last week, then promptly took a dive right to the 50dma. It gor a pretty good snap back, followed by a gap up today on huge volume. I should have been watching this one, but i wasn't.

Today's Leading Industry

I have over 40 industries with 100% of their stocks advancing today, so that is no help. Here are the industries with 10% or more of their stocks making new highs.

General entertainment is a 12 stock group that is high in relative strength this week, but long term is not very strong. Looking at the charts of the group, there are only a couple that have really decent strength (FUN abd SIX). This is a very diverse group and we probably will not see them move as a group.

Market Leadership

Ticker	50-Day Simple Moving Average	52-Week High	Relative Strength Index (14)	Change	Change from Open	Gap	Relative Volume
GPOR	3.52%	-19.40%	48.45	3.96%	0.66%	3.28%	5.12
BWLD	4.07%	-7.31%	56.56	0.72%	-1.99%	2.77%	1.47
DECK	5.19%	-8.33%	58.91	3.78%	-0.04%	3.82%	1.19
QCOR	26.62%	1.51%	67.77	5.46%	3.13%	2.26%	1.17
HITK	21.82%	0.57%	75.06	0.81%	-1.66%	2.52%	1.14
ULTA	0.63%	-8.90%	52.66	0.85%	-3.02%	3.99%	1.11
HLF	0.29%	-11.03%	52.88	4.28%	0.59%	3.67%	1.08
CMG	0.03%	-7.91%	53.29	2.38%	0.07%	2.31%	0.9
SPRD	3.57%	-19.31%	47.63	3.55%	-0.37%	3.94%	0.69
PSMT	-3.62%	-14.71%	50.87	3.96%	0.69%	3.25%	0.42
SYNA	8.02%	-8.61%	53.62	2.93%	0.13%	2.80%	0.32

GPOR is continuing it's high volume bouncing around, thank to a secondary offering. BWLD got a nice gap up on volume bit has reversed it and is selling off. DECK and QCOR are both making good moves with decent volume.  New highs, QCOR, HITK

Here is a link to the charts.

Early Industry Leaders

Name	Stocks	NH	Pct
Tobacco Products, Other	2	1	50
Cigarettes	7	3	42.86
Water Utilities	11	3	27.27
Home Improvement Stores	4	1	25
Industrial Equipment Wholesale	12	3	25
Specialty Eateries	4	1	25
Meat Products	9	2	22.22
Auto Parts Wholesale	5	1	20
Cleaning Products	5	1	20
Oil & Gas Pipelines	36	6	16.67
Drugs - Generic	13	2	15.38
Gaming Activities	7	1	14.29
Beverages - Wineries & Distillers	8	1	12.5
General Entertainment	8	1	12.5
Small Tools & Accessories	8	1	12.5
Sporting Goods Stores	8	1	12.5
Department Stores	9	1	11.11
Synthetics	9	1	11.11
Sporting Goods	10	1	10

Here are the early industry leaders in percentage of stocks making new highs.

Price Relative Scans

I have 6 100 day breakouts in price relative (Finviz screen here), 4 50 day breakouts (here), and 21 20 day breakouts (here). There are no breakouts on the second spreadsheet.

Today's Pivot Points

Floor		Woodie's		Camarilla		Demark
R3	1213.84	R2	1208.33	R4	1201.72	High	1199.43
R2	1208.76	R1	1201.13	R3	1198.45	Low	1187.56
R1	1201.97	P	1196.46	R2	1197.37
P	1196.89	S1	1189.26	R1	1196.28
S1	1190.1	S2	1184.59	S1	1194.1
S2	1185.02			S2	1193.01
S3	1178.23			S3	1191.93
				S4	1188.66

Wednesday Morning Update

Yesterday after the close Standard and Poors downgraded a boatload of banks, sending the futures careening lower and making today look like a potential bloodbath. So what happened? Another liquidity injection by the world's central banks, in another coordinated attempt to treat the symptoms rather than the disease. That, of course, sent us flying up at the open, well into the resistance zone above 1215, all the way up to 1235, where, if not resistance, we are getting at least a pause. XLE and XLB are leading this morning, XLP and XLU lagging. The Nasdaq is about even, the Russell 2000 has a slight lead. Oil and gold are up, treasury yields up big again.

I have 96 new highs, with breakouts in SPSC, ABMD, HALO, and DXPE. I have CONN from the relative strength list scheduled to report this morning, but they have not and I cannot find a confirmed date for them.

Tuesday New Highs

There were 46 new highs today, here is the list.

These are the top 10 industries in percentage of stocks making new highs:

Name	Stocks	NH	Percent
Cigarettes	7	3	42.86
Home Improvement Stores	4	1	25
Specialty Eateries	4	1	25
Drugs - Generic	13	2	15.38
Gaming Activities	7	1	14.29
Beverages - Wineries & Distillers	8	1	12.5
General Entertainment	8	1	12.5
Health Care Plans	17	2	11.76
Farm Products	18	2	11.11
Oil & Gas Pipelines	36	4	11.11

These are the high volume advancers and decliners from the relative strength list:

Advancers				Decliners
Ticker	Relative Volume	Change		Ticker	Relative Volume	Change
INHX	5.28	20.18%		HSTM	4.3	-1.64%
PZZA	3.45	0.45%
HITK	2.32	3.24%
IDIX	2.28	4.65%
AKRX	1.89	2.88%
DXPE	1.64	2.14%
RDEN	1.64	0.53%
EXR	1.6	0.44%
KSU	1.58	1.54%
HAIN	1.57	0.65%
CYAN	1.55	6.25%
KOG	1.5	3.64%

There is nothing scheduled to report after the close.

The Nasdaq's Terrible Tuesday

 We got another positive day today, but there were some problems: for one, the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 both had bad days, substantially under performing. the other was a nasty 5 point drop going into the lose, which not only cut into today's gain but also may be a bad omen for tomorrow. As it is, we are below the 50dema 9a lot closer to the simple average), and should not see significant resistance below 1215-1220. MACD histogram has reversed and is heading up, and normally will head up at least until it goes positive. that should be a coupe of days at least, and by then we should see how much resistance we are going to be getting.

Ever since hitting bottom in 2009, crude oil has lagged the market pretty badly, but since October 4 has outperformed it dramatically. Why that is I don;t know, but the tensions in the Middle East are probably behind this. Whatever the cause, oil has held up well in the two pauses it has had since the October rally began. For whatever reason, pivot points on the WTI chart seem to be evenly spaced at 5 point intervals, something I notice n the big rise in 2008, and it failed to work only during the subsequent crash.

Gold continues to care out a trading range, and may be forming a symmetrical triangle pattern of it's own.  Gold normally spends months in trading ranges before breakouts, but when it does break out it makes a pretty hefty move up. I think we are still several months from seeing that. 

The yield ont he 10 year treasury is formaing a strange looking pattern here. It looks sort of like a flag pattern, but in ths case I'm not sure if it's bullish or bearish. 
 

Last week I showed how poorly the UUP chart tracked the dollar index, and that continues this week. the dollar chart looks more bullish than this one, but bit are near recent highs (the dollar index much closer) and both look poised to drop. With another round of QE coming (I read that another Fed-head dropped another rumor today), it will.

Today we got some follow through (not to be confuse with an IBD follow through, which can't happen until Thursday, and although it was a little disappointing, especially with the Nasdaq lagging so badly, but I won't be worrying until we get into the resistance zone above 1215.I am still holding positions that dd not get stopped out on the way down, and looking to add some new ones if we continue up. I don;t expect an october style "rip your face off" rally, but the trend for the rest of the year will likely be up. After that, you are on your own.

I will have the new highs update shortly.

RAI

RAI is right now the strongest of the cigarette stocks, and had a breakout today, on relatively low volume. The price relative line had a breakout last, but dipped back below the breakout point.  This is not really leading stock material, but in the current market environment is is becoming a leader by default.

MO

MO was the other new high in the group, but it missed a breakout thanks to low relative volume. I will be watching the price relative line here, which is currently a little weak, to see if it starts moving up:when it does, price will likely follow. Another plus here is the low level of the ATR. This is a Dow stock, o it won't move very fast, which in this market is probably a plus.

Today's Leading Industry

 Here are the industres with 65% or more of their stocks advancing today.

 Here are the industries with 10% or more of their stocks making new highs.

If cigarettes had just a few more stocks in it, I would be more impressed with the numbers it puts up. At 7 stocks, it does tend to make large percentage moves. However, the consistency of the numbers is what makes this group stand out, and it is pretty clearly the leading industry in the market, although none of the individual stocks in the group are leading stocks. There are tow breakouts in this group today, which I will be looking at after the close.

Market Leadership

Ticker	50-Day Simple Moving Average	52-Week High	52-Week Low	Relative Strength Index (14)	Change	Change from Open	Gap	Relative Volume
GPOR	0.57%	-21.74%	63.25%	43.81	-6.02%	-0.77%	-5.30%	2.31
HITK	20.16%	1.20%	121.20%	70.91	2.25%	1.80%	0.45%	1.4
SPRD	1.56%	-21.01%	177.22%	44.36	-1.70%	-1.33%	-0.37%	1.36
BWLD	4.43%	-6.96%	52.48%	55.91	-0.17%	-0.34%	0.17%	1.11
DECK	1.84%	-11.29%	48.19%	53.13	0.70%	-0.64%	1.35%	1.09
ULTA	0.38%	-9.01%	115.15%	51.82	0.61%	1.23%	-0.61%	0.87
HLF	-3.27%	-14.10%	75.83%	44.3	0.56%	0.24%	0.31%	0.86
CMG	-2.64%	-10.24%	46.91%	46.16	0.89%	0.74%	0.15%	0.47
QCOR	20.77%	-4.00%	251.40%	60.99	-1.43%	-1.86%	0.44%	0.45
PSMT	-7.09%	-17.56%	109.15%	43.46	-1.41%	-0.26%	-1.15%	0.35
SYNA	5.38%	-11.25%	41.15%	47.76	-1.08%	-1.27%	0.19%	0.24

GPOR announced a secondary offering, which is the reason for it's high volume and gap down, and it is now sitting almost exactly on the 50dma. Other than that there is not much going on here. HITK is continuing it's strength, is the only new high, and is the only leader actaully leading. SPRD is continuing it's weakness. BWLD has a pretty decent chart pattern but is still well off the high.

Here is a link to the charts.