We had another nice reversal of a drop at the open, and this time went a little farther than yesterday. 1292 is now within reach, and it loks like we should get there. Stochastics are still moving up, albeit getting into overbought territory (the trouble with stochastics is they can stay there for months). MACD and MACD histogram are also rising, so the market nhas bnow developed some upward momentum. We haven't seen a big rush of volume in the market yet, but we are getting just about average volume. Notice how low ATR is dropping: we could be getting close to the market making a decently big move, and right now it looks like the probability is up.
The Nasdaq 100 did a nice job of playing catch up today, and did break out past the November high, now with the October high to contend with. This is also building up bullish momentum, which it was in real need of.
The Russell 200 did the opposite, with a very weak opening and severe laggard staatus the rest of the day. It did manage a nice gain after reversing the open, but has virtually no momentum here. If the market is to rally from here, it may be doing it without the Russell.
The percentage of stocks above the 50dma on the NYSE is comfortably into bull territory and is close to moving over 75, an area where it usually reverses quickly. We are probably about a week away from that, and a reversal does not necessarily mean a market correction, it could be merely some sideways action.
The Nasdaq, on the other hand, is just barely into bullish ground. I have never seen the two with this much of a divergence, and it is a little troubling. this does have more room to move up than the NYSE, but as close as the NYSE is to it's reversal zone, this could very well drop like a rock even with a mild pullback on the NYSE. Out performance by the NYSE, especially to this degree, would normally signal market weakness coming, and I see no reason to believe this time is different.
Despite a bullish move to start the new year, the market is still in worrisome shape and I saw nothing today to lead me to believe it is improving.
I will have the new highs update shortly.
0 comments:
Post a Comment