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Sunday, March 18, 2012

Earnings Growth Charts

i have 4 stocks from the earnings list reporting last week, and graphed those 4. In the top panel the red line is quarterly growth rate, black is quarterly revenue growth rate. In the middle the black line is price, the red line is quarterly EPS, the green line is quarterly revenue, and the blue line is price relative to SPX. If the stock is reporting the end of a fiscal year, the large red bars are annual EPS. At the bottom the black bars are volume.

Last time I graphed EBIX, it had price data before September 2011 missing. Yaho finance now has it going back to 1998, but there still is a chunk from 2011 missing, and that period about coincides with the time frame that an analyst accused the company of fraud. Why that data is missing I have no idea, and apparently the fraud allegations never went anywhere. This is back near the old highs, but earnings has been in a slowing trend. If that trend continues this will likely be range bound; if it starts accelerating look for this to break out and become a leader again.

EVOL sold a part of the company which accounts for the big spike in earnings and big drop in revenue. This went through a high growth phase about 3 years ago and hasn't done much since, and it will be a few quarters before we know where this is going. Price has held up fairly well, so the market may be anticipating higher growth in the future, but right now it doesn't look like it is going anywhere.

HOGS started a collapse, at the time inexplicable, that hass brought it back down to the 2009 lows. We have a big drop in earnings, although revenue is still, for now, high. The market is apparently anticipating lower numbers in the future, or it doesn't trust the numbers as they are now. This one has a pretty good chance of missing the next cut.

MED is also undergoing a big slowdown in earnings growth, going slightly negative this year. The correction it is in now seems a little deep for a small drop in earnings, but growth has been going negative for a couple of years. The numbers here are probably not bad enough to get it bumped off the list, but this is also under a cloud of fraud allegations, and the press releases really don't pass the smell test. If it does stay on, it will be due to a lack of candidates to replace it.

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