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Friday, March 2, 2012

Friday Weekly Charts

 After nearly ignoring the pivot points in January, the market followed them to near perfectiom in February, topping for the month right on R2, the going marginally higher as soon as March started. If it stays true to forma this months, I would expect na range between P, which is 1352, and R2, at 1417, with a less probable chance of going as low as S1 at 1326. One thing is clear: we are due for a correction. Another thing is also clear: we have been due for one for some time. So being due is no assurance we will have one. 

 On the weekly chart we are right on resistance from 2011, have a declining MACD histogram, declining volume, but weekly stocphastics are still rising, so I would not be betting on an epic collapse.

Take all the potential negative on the SPX and throw them out: the Nasdaq is making a mockery of them. Until this show some signs of weakness, I don't think we will see anythong more than a mild pullback.
 The Dow industrials are now into new high ground for the last 3 years. Since we are now 3 years from the 2009 bottom, we are getting a perfect look at what a bull market looks like. If you are a practitioner of Elliot Wave, you would probably conclude that we are in a wave 5 and are very likely to go higher.
 The Transports are now officially not playing along. They have already lapsed into a mini correction after ;agging badly on the way up.You would expect this with oil going up.

Oil going up may not be a good excuse for the new found weakness in the Russell 2000. This had a really bad week this week, and appears that is is entering a correction now., If so, expect the rest of the market to follow.

The new highs update will be a little late tonight.

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