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Saturday, March 31, 2012

Leader Charts

 Despite what looked like a good week in the market, the leadership list was up overall only about half a percent. On the plus side, there were more gainers than decliners and only one decliner over 5%. CBOU was the biggest gainer, having reversed a pullback to the 50dma last Friday (the blue candles represent last Friday's candle). This is a text book example of a secondary buy point, where you would either add to a position you bought at the initial breakout in January, or initiate a position if you missed the first chance. I was asleep at the switch and did neither.

CSTR was the second biggest gainer. This is carving out a trading range since gapping up big in February,  It has established what looks like a mid point at 63.79, which would imply a target somewhere near 71. I would not be surprised to see it get there, and at this point pullbacks are buyable.
 Energy and basic materials stocks are lagging the market pretty badly, and the leadership list is no exception. ATW was the biggest decliner, has broken the 50dma and is just barely above the 200dma. Having said all that, this looks like it is holding up fairly well, and if energy stocks start moving up again, this will likely be one of the leaders. For now this is a don't touch, but it is a definite watch.

CF was the second biggest decliner, and is one of the agriculture related stock that is holding up best. The volume pattern here stinks, and CMF has been negative for about a month. It is sitting on the 50dma, nor,mally a pretty good buy point, but the sector as a whole is very weak now, so this will have a hard time fighting that. Thisw is another don't touch but keep an eye on.

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