We have seen how the simple 50dma has been resistance, and now the exponential average, which had been support, may now be becoming resistance. We are in the process of establishing a short term down trend line which the market is testing, and so far has been thrown back. 1358 looks to be the now established support level, 1392 the breakout point, and until one is broken, we really don;t know what is going to happen next.
Crude oil continues to hold up pretty well, actually rising slightly in the last 5 days. This usually has pretty well established pivot points at roughly even intervals, and right now it is 100 and 110, with 105 in the middle. It has spent nearly a month in the lower half of that range, and we may get another test of 100 before this starts moving up again, but I think the eventuality is that is will go up.
Gold has been quite a bit waeker, but is showing some signs that it might be bottoming. One problem is an inability to get above the 50dema, which is descending; another problem is lack of support at the 200dema. However, MACD is improving, as is RSI, so this may be ready, finally, to start building the right side of a base.
The yield on the ten year Treasury continues a rather unbelievable drop, which barely shows signs of slowing down. If this is any indication, we may be in for a pretty severe correction.
The U.S. Dollar index was down marginally today (this chart has not updated yet), and really hasn;t been going anywhere. The market is no linger tracking the dollar (or the Euro, for that matter) tick for tick as it did from 2009-2011, but if this starts a major move in one direction or the other, the market will start paying attention. The Fed is out of just about everything but hot air in their attempts to move this, but there are plenty of disasters waiting to happen that will move this up.
Today was a decent day for the market, but a terrible day for the growth stock world. Earnings will be coming out in droves (AAPL tonight, for instance),. so conditions can change on a dime.
I am not a financial professional, just a guy that trades my own account.
I am also not a musical professional, just a guy that makes music on the computer. Thus, two blogs, one trading and on musical.
And, no, the picture is not me, it is the late, great John Belushi, one of the inspirations for these blogs.
This blog is focused on technical analysis of stocks and markets, putting heavy emphasis on chart analysis. My trading style is derived primarily from my mentor, William "Yoda" O'Neil, and the focus here is on leading and breakout stocks, but all forms of trading are covered to some extent. Economic and political news that effects the market are also topics here, and the blog may occasionally become a platform for my political and philosophical ranting. I keep several spreadsheets on Google docs which track various aspects of the market and readers are welcome to vies and comment on them.
Google Docs Spreadsheets
There are several spreadsheet that I maintain on Google docs to track various watchlists and trends in the market.
1. The earnings list - a group of small and micro cap, low float stocks that have exhibited recent rapid earnings growth. They are modeled along the lines of William O'Neil's CAN SLIM system, but limited to small cap, highly volatile stocks.
2. The relative strength list - a group of stocks which are near 52 week highs and have shown an increase in average daily volume. The list is limited to the top 200 stocks according to my methodology, which will be detailed on one of the pages of the spreadsheet.
It can be accessed here, and is also updates weekly.
3. Relative strength by industry - Uses industry data from Finviz.com to track the percentage of stocks within each industry that are in the top 25% of the 52 week price range, looking for trends.