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Monday, November 19, 2012

The Bounce Arrives


 Today was a logical day for a big bounce for several reasons: it was overdue, an important pivot point was under duress, and it is Thanksgiving week, traditionally a rally time. So, today really wasn't much of a surprise, and the rally was pretty broad based (I had almost 80% of the stocks in the market advancing today). So. it looks like we are relatively safe for the rest of this month, at least crash wise, but this is day 2 off the low, so in O'Neil's book, we are still waiting for the buy signal, which will come, at the earliest, on Wednesday (not likely, seeing that is the day before the holiday).


 After breaking support level after support level, the Nasdaq finally found one, and it was the last one before the last ditch support at the June low. This made a mighty big move, and the price realtive line turned up, but one day does not make a trend.

 Look at the move on the price relative on the Dow, A break down in price relative: if that continues, this rally should have some legs.

The Russell 2000 also turned up in price relative, but not enough to really be thrilled about. This also bounced at a perfectly logical level, and should have relatively clear sailing until it gets to the 200dma, whihc will probably be by the end of this week.

We got the bounce we should have gotten, and at the time we should have gotten it, and to top that off, at perfectly logical levels for it to bounce. I will be shocked if this results in a follow through day and we go into another up trend: this, so far, looks to me like an opportunity to get some shorts for another, eventual leg down.

I will have the new highs update shortly.

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