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Saturday, June 30, 2012

New Leadership Scan


Ticker Price as a % of 52 Wk H-L Range EPS growth past 5 years Return on Equity 50-Day Simple Moving Average 200-Day Simple Moving Average 20 day v/ms X
CRUS 95.64 0.33 0.19 0.11 0.42 39.91 0.31
CSTR 100 0.4 0.31 0.1 0.27 31.5 0.17
QCOR 99.53 0.25 0.6 0.21 0.36 28.11 0.15
ULTA 91.15 0.33 0.25 0.03 0.17 23.65 0.14
CF 91.93 1.05 0.35 0.1 0.16 21.57 0.06
DLTR 88.79 0.27 0.34 0.04 0.21 20.75 0.17
DG 97.72 0.38 0.19 0.12 0.26 17.09 0.14
BERK 89.93 0.51 0.48 0.12 0.23 16.23 0.11
SCLN 92.19 0.99 0.27 0.1 0.36 15.08 0.26
SAM 100 0.31 0.38 0.12 0.22 13.74 0.1
BRLI 100 0.25 0.2 0.19 0.35 13.23 0.16
CYBX 99.62 0.45 0.2 0.12 0.29 12.98 0.17
CA 91.17 0.54 0.17 0.05 0.15 12.38 0.1
FLS 88.63 0.31 0.19 0.06 0.11 12.21 0.05
EBAY 91 0.26 0.19 0.04 0.21 11.95 0.17

Here are the results of the new leadership scan, 15 stocks with the new volume standard. It appears we may be havong a shift in leadership, as very few of the former leaders are here now, although that can change quickly. I will be tracking these daily next week.

Earnings Summary

I have 2 stocks from the earnings list reporting this week: AVAV reported a quarter of accelerating earnings growth, and SNX reported a quarter of decelerating growth.


All spreadsheets are uploaded. I will be doing the quarterly earnings update tomorrow, and the spreadsheet will be updated by next weekend.

Relative Strength By Industry

Here are the top 30 industries in percentage of stocks in the relative strength range this week. I will be trying to focus on those with 4 or more categories, and place more emphasis on the groups that are moving up.

Relative Strength Scans

Here are the results of this week's relative strength scan. There are 1269 stocks in the top 25% of their 52 week price ranges, a big increase over last week. From left to right, the first 3 columns are the stocks from last week retained this week, the next 2 are the new stocks this week, and the last 2 are the sstocks dropping off this week's list.

The spreadsheet will be uploaded later today.
Retained

New
Off
AEO GNC RYL AGP SLXP AAPL SHW
AFFY GPS SKX AWRE STZ ABCO SNTA
AGNC LCC SPF BIRT SUNH ABMD SSYS
AIG LEN SPPI BWLD THLD AKRX TRIP
AIV LF SWHC CAKE VAC AMLN TWO
ALGN LGF SWKS CAMP XPO AOL UAL
ALLT LIVE TFM CBL Z BMRN VRTX
AMRN LL TOL CF
BWS
AMTG LNKD TREX CKEC
CLDX
ARIA LPX TROW CYH
CMG
ARNA MAS UA DLTR
CONN
AUXL MDC ULTA ELLI
COO
BRK.B MDVN USG FDO
CYTR
CNQR MGT VHC GEVA
DAL
CRUS MLNX VVUS GLUU
DG
CSTR MTGE WNR HCII
DK
CYS MTH WWWW HOS
DTG
DDD N ZUMZ HOTT
FL
DDS NEON
LNCR
HBAN
DF ONXX
MNST
IOC
DHI PATK
NCT
MHO
DKS PCYC
OREX
MOV
EAT PHM
PIR
OSIR
EQIX QCOR
RGLD
PKT
FIRE RNF
RPRX
PPC

Leader Charts


 We had been having a bad week on the leadership list up until yesterday, and even with that it overall it was marginally up, with more gainers than decliners, but a few big decliners and only one gaining over 5%. SAM was the biggest gainer. Last Friday (the blue arrow) it had just pulled back to near the prior breakout point, which was probably the last decent entry point we will get for a while. I have a target projection here of about 129, which I suspect it will hit, but it will probably take some time. During the last base, starting in early May, the price relative line was rising. This is again becoming one of the strongest stocks in the market.
 
 CSTR was the second biggest gainer. This is now at the top of the right side of a base, and may pause here for a week or two to form a handle. This also has a pretty strong price relative line. The base looks a little deep here, but didn't even come close to the 200dma, which is just off this chart. I can't find a report date for this, but last quarter is reported in April, so I would guess sometime in July. I would probably be best to wait for earnings before getting into this one.
 
 CMG was the biggest decliner. This dropped without warning, and as far as I can tell, for no reason, breaking the 50dma and nearly testing the 200dma  in 2 days. It hasn't been this close to the 200dma in 6 months, and this may be a good speculative entry, with a very small position. It is quite possible that some bad news is coming in the future, but if it doesn't, this could come back up pretty quickly.

SWI was the second biggest decliner. This has, despite high volatility, stayed above the lower pivot point, but it is now having trouble getting back above the 5odma. It is also declining in price relative, which could be serious trouble. CMF has stayed high, but that is probably because of that high volume day from a couple of weeks ago. I would be very cautious with this one.

Friday, June 29, 2012

Friday New Highs

There were 327 new highs today, here is the list.


These are the top 10 industries in percentage of stocks making new highs:

Name Stocks NH Pct
REIT - Healthcare Facilities 11 9 81.82
Cleaning Products 5 3 60
Air Services, Other 7 4 57.14
Residential Construction 17 8 47.06
Confectioners 5 2 40
Home Improvement Stores 5 2 40
Diversified Utilities 24 9 37.5
REIT - Diversified 38 13 34.21
Beverages - Brewers 9 3 33.33
Cement 6 2 33.33
REIT - Industrial 15 5 33.33


These are the high volume advancers and decliners from the relative strength list:

Advancers


Decliners

Ticker Relative Volume Change
Ticker Relative Volume Change
SWHC 6.14 20.54%
CYTR 1.52 -5.76%
SNTA 5.44 13.49%
LIVE 3.19 -7.00%
BWS 1.63 9.41%
OSIR 2.06 -7.03%
FL 1.57 5.92%



SPF 1.97 5.45%



MHO 1.71 5.22%



UA 2.62 4.39%



GNC 1.63 4.06%



COO 1.81 3.14%



SPPI 1.7 1.63%



CMG 1.7 0.80%





I will have a complete earnings summary and the quarterly earnings list revision this weekend, and the price relative scan on Sunday.

Friday Weekly Charts

There are a few observations that occur to me when looking at today's chart: for one, my observation last Friday that we were not going higher for the rest of the month, due to pivot point resistance, was off by one day. Today's break of that resistance occurred on high volume, which means we are probably due for a pretty good bull move here. Today also constitutes a follow through day; unlike the last one, there is no question about this one, meaning failure is less likely. The last move down, as it stands now, was the fake out move that I was expecting: unfortunately it still succeeded in shaking me out. And finally, when the big money starts moving, as it did just before the close yesterday, pay attention. As we found out this morning, they knew something the rest of us did not.

Today's move put us in the upper half of the weekly chart range, broke back above the 10 week average, and stopped the momentum indicators from faltering, restoring a strong upward momentum. We are due for a bull move here, quite possibly as high as this year's high or higher.This may be the wave 5 I expected back in April but did not get.
 The Nasdaq is sill lagging and is still in the lower half of the range, but has about the same momentum going up.It still has to get through the 10 week average, but if the rest of the market continues moving up, that will not be a problem.
The Dow industrials appear to have slightly less upward momentum, which is bullish, as the market becomes less defensive.  It appears from here that it will be pretty trivial to get back to the 2012 high.


 The Dow transports are a little problematical: the 2012 high was lower than the 2011 high, putting them in what could be considered a bear market, and also putting stronger resistance above where it is now. However, it is moving up, and is now showing some pretty decent strength. 


The Russell 2000 is even a bigger problem: it has the same situation as the transports, but has more of a tendency to lead the market. If this has another failure to get to a new high, then that would confirm that we have been in essentially what is a bear market since April of 2011: get to a new high, and it's a whole new ball game.

We are back in rally mode, as once again intervention saved the day. We may be in for one hell of a rally in July.

I will have the new highs update shortly.

MRLN

MRLN is even more thinly traded than the breakout I looked at yesterday, but i did notice the recent breakout in price relative, coming about a week before the breakout in price.This is not a bad pattern for a stocks than barely gets 100k shares traded on a good day, and it clearly broke through a key resistance point today. This is slowly increasing in volume, and might be getting some accumulation, so it might pay to look into this one a little further.

This Week's Industry Performance

Here are the top 30 industries in percentage of stocks advancing in the last 5 trading days, not including today. We see a lot of the leading industries here this week. I will be re running this tomorrow with the new relative strength data.

Market Leader Performance


Ticker Performance (Week) Relative Volume Change
SCLN 5.57% 0.64 3.28%
SAM 4.47% 1.18 2.48%
BRLI 2.98% 0.66 1.00%
CSTR 2.83% 1.35 2.27%
DG 2.58% 0.86 0.43%
QCOR 2.31% 0.82 3.38%
CYBX 1.37% 0.57 2.67%
CRUS -0.21% 1.14 4.85%
EBAY -2.51% 1.02 2.77%
SWI -4.40% 1.38 2.92%
ULTA -5.01% 1.74 0.86%
CMG -8.07% 2.41 -0.17%
Here is the performance for the leaders for the last 5 days, not including today, with today's volume and change. It doesn't look like we will have substantial changes after today.

Market Watch Update


Here is the Market Watch Game update. I really had a bad week, but most of the bad was yesterday. I set stops on all my positions, and 4 of the 5 got hit, leaving me with pretty substantial losses. Overall I am down only 2%, but have very little left to take advantage of today's rally.

Ticker Price Shares Buy Date Position Sell Price Sell Date Gain Percent
ULTA 93.3 50 06/11/12 4665 90.4 06/28/12 -145 -3.11%
SWI 44.72 100 06/11/12 4472 43.39
-133 -2.97%
MNST 75.3 50 06/11/12 3765 67.62 06/28/12 -384 -10.20%
SAM 109.11 40 06/11/12 4364.4 116.1 06/28/12 279.6 6.41%
SAM 110.62 40 06/15/12 4424.8 116.1 06/28/12 219.2 4.95%
EBAY 42.11 100 06/18/12 4211 40.25 06/28/12 -186 -4.42%
ULTA 95.73 50 06/18/12 4786.5 90.4 06/28/12 -266.5 -5.57%
MNST 78.62 60 06/18/12 4717.2 67.62 06/28/12 -660 -13.99%
EBAY 43.26 100 06/20/12 4326 40.25 06/28/12 -301 -6.96%
SWI 48.33 100 06/20/12 4833 43.39
-494 -10.22%
SWHC 8.13 500 06/20/12 4065 7.85
-140 -3.44%

Here are the trades I have made since starting the new account. SAM was pretty good, but I did give back quite a bit before selling. I stayed in MNST way too long, and probably got out of ULTA too early.  SWI barely missed getting stopped out, and is not gaining that much today. I added SWHC this morning, probably too early, and got it near the top, so I'm already underwater on that. I am going to stick with the O'Neil strategy as much as I can, but will be more careful about protecting profits (when I get some).

Early Industry Leaders


Name Stocks NH Pct
REIT - Healthcare Facilities 11 9 81.82
Residential Construction 17 8 47.06
Cleaning Products 5 2 40
Home Improvement Stores 5 2 40
Beverages - Brewers 9 3 33.33
Diversified Utilities 24 8 33.33
REIT - Diversified 38 12 31.58
Air Services, Other 7 2 28.57
Beverages - Wineries & Distillers 7 2 28.57
Cigarettes 7 2 28.57
Publishing - Books 7 2 28.57
REIT - Industrial 15 4 26.67
Mortgage Investment 20 5 25
REIT - Residential 26 6 23.08
Beverages - Soft Drinks 19 4 21.05
Aerospace/Defense - Major Diversified 5 1 20
Confectioners 5 1 20
Diversified Computer Systems 5 1 20
Drug Related Products 10 2 20
Drugs Wholesale 5 1 20
Discount, Variety Stores 11 2 18.18
Water Utilities 11 2 18.18
Drug Manufacturers - Major 35 6 17.14
Cement 6 1 16.67
Electric Utilities 54 9 16.67
Lumber, Wood Production 6 1 16.67
Hospitals 13 2 15.38
Research Services 13 2 15.38
Telecom Services - Domestic 20 3 15

Here are the early industry leaders in percentage of stocks making new highs.

Today's Pivot Points


Floor
Woodie's
Camarilla
Demark
R3 1354.17 R2 1343.95 R4 1339.07 High 1330.28
R2 1342.85 R1 1338.16 R3 1334.05 Low 1312.05
R1 1335.94 P 1325.72 R2 1332.38

P 1324.62 S1 1319.93 R1 1330.71

S1 1317.71 S2 1307.49 S1 1327.37

S2 1306.39

S2 1325.7

S3 1299.48

S3 1324.03





S4 1319.01

Friday Morning Update

Last night I smelled a rat with the last minute ramp job in the market this morning, and expected a surprise announcement from somebody big this morning. Well, we got on, from Europe: a European version of the TARP. Naturally that sent the market screaming higher this morning. Now we have to see how long it can hold (we got a similar rally with our TARP in 2008, followed not to long afterwards with an epic crash).It appears a short squeeze may be in progress: XLI, XLF, and XLE are leading, with XLU and XLY lagging. The Nasdaq and Russell 200 are both leading slightly. Oil, gold, and treasury yields are all up.

I have 215 new highs so far, with breakouts in STZ, EMMS, KVHI, BUD, and BLDR. I have one report from SWHC, which is up 15.5%.

Thursday, June 28, 2012

Price Relative Scans

Here is the price relative scan for Thursday: no 200 or 100 day breakouts, 2 50 day breakouts (Finviz screen here), and 10 20 day breakouts (here).
Ticker 20 day 10 day 5 day
DVA 11 7 3
TWTC 11 3 3
KBALB 10 6 2
CMCSA 10 3 1
DF 9 5 1
MBWM 9 5 2
DEST 7 6 2
WWWW 7 6 2
NLNK 7 5 3
CCI 7 1 0
MWIV 7 5 4
GV 7 2 0
LPSN 7 1 0
POOL 7 7 4
SIX 7 4 4
INOD 6 6 1
OCN 6 4 0
WYN 6 2 0
CNQR 6 3 1
ADS 6 6 3
OMER 6 1 1
TPGI 6 2 2
AEPI 6 5 5
Here is the same scan I did last night: these are the new highs that are not breakouts but have strong 200 day trends in price relative. This time I sorted them by the number of times they hit this list in the last 20 days: I am thinking of calculating a "score" like the price relative score and sorting them by that.

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