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Sunday, January 27, 2013

Earnings Growth Charts

The avalanche of reports on the earnings list still has not started, and maybe this quarter I will get liucky and it will stay at a manageable level. I have 6 reporting last week, so I was able to graph all 6. On the graphs, in the top panel the red line is quarterly EPS growth rate, black  is quarterly revenue growth rate. In the middle, the red line is quarterly EPS, green is quarterly revenue, black is price, and blue price relative to SPX. Most of the stocks this quarter are reporting the end of fiscal 2012: in those cases the large red bars are annual EPS. At the bottom the black bars are volume.

AEPI is first up. It is a new addition to the list, and this is the first time I have seen the full chart. It had a big increase in earnings in 2009, then a big drop in 2010, and is now recovering, but price hgas gone well past it's 2009 high. That nay be a sign the market is anticipating continued growth, but it is currently experiencing a short term slowdown, and is on the process of base building, I like this one long term, and may take a small "buy and hold" position.

BMTC is also new on the list, and isn't quite as impressive as I initially thought it was, but is still pretty good, and short term has had some high growth in recent quarters. This is getting close to a 5 year breakout, but doesn't get a lot of volume yet, so the breakout may not be all that spectacular. This is another one that might be a good long term hold.

EZPW has stalled in earnings growth for the last year, and has had quite a drop in price since then. The drop in price may be a bit overdone (unless the market is anticipating a big drop in earnings), so this might actually become a value stock at some point in the future, but for now, it's dead money.

ISRG lapsed into a base after a period of slowing growth late last year, and now looks like it is building the right side. On a quarterly basis this has been slowing, but annual earnings are still growing very consistently. Look for this one to become a leader again in the next few quarters.

SYNA is a bit strange: pretty decent annual EPS growth, but revenue is dropping, and price that really hasn't gone anywhere in the last 5 years. This shows flashes of leadership occasionally, but it rarely lasts longer than a few weeks. If the revenue continues to drop, this one could be in serious trouble.

VLTR  had a big drop in growth last year, got a little better this year, but still below where is was in 2010. Price did not peak until last year, so apparently the market was anticipating better growth this year than we got, and since that peak it has dropped like a rock. This one is in trouble, and had better reverse it's fortunes soon.

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