Friday Weekly Charts

Here are the new pivot points for January: We are 3 trading days into the month, and have already passed R1, and are very close to R2. Either we are not going to follow the pivot poin ts this month (possible), or we are bit going to be going much higher this month (more likely). With the very high percentage of stocks above the 50dma we saw yesterday, combined with the proximity of the R2 pivot, we may not have much more left in this current move. However, it is also quite possible that any corrective move will be small, and could easily be contained by R1. So, from a historical perepective, the most likely scenario is a move up to (more likely, just above) R2, then a reversal and a correcion, probably down to R1. Whether that all takes up the rest of this month or not, I don't know, but for now, that is the forecast for the next two weeks.

Stockcharts does not have new pivot points on their weekly charts. I don't know if that mens they won't calculate them until next week or not is unknown. I calculated them based on the calender year (those are roughly S1, P, and R1 on the chart). but won't know until they put up the new pivots whether they are correct. That might not be until next Friday. One thing is apparent on this chart: if they are correct, it is very likely my Elliot wave count is going to be blown out of the water, which means back to the drawing board. I would hate to have to go back and re-read Prechter.

I didn't calculate pivot points for any other index, so I have chart support and resistance on these. One thing apparent on the  Nasdaq is that, even accounting for holiday volume, it looks a little low for such a big move.

The Dow is just about as likely as the others tio get to a new high, although momentum indicators are a bit weak.

The Transports are making a move here, and may be starting to take the lead. That, in the past, has lead to a bull move in the market. There is one more level of resistance to get through, at this rate it should go through it fairly easily.

The Russell 2000, which had been lagging so badly that it had not hit a new high in over a year, is now there, and is in fact at an all time high. Momentume is very strong here, and this should be able to pull the rest of the market with it. Whether is does or not is another matter: this can just as easily outperform in a bear market as a bull market.

I am disappointed we don't have pivot points for 2013 yet. We should have them next Friday, and that will ell us a lot about what we can expect this year. So far, it is not turning out the way I thought it would.

I will have the new highs update shorly.