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Tuesday, March 26, 2013

Within Spitting Distance

Never mind the weakening internals, and nevermind the rather pathetic volume today, the market is less than 2 points from an all time high, which is the only thing that matters on CNBC. I keep beating the dead horse of a correction, and this roughly week long sideways move might be it: If so, we can expect another breakout, with a new target about 1590, followed by a hellacious correction, starting, as usual, about May 1st. Pay me now, or pay me later.

Crude oil is now making the biggest, fastest up move of the last 6 months, and if this is leading the market, as it has been lately, hen we can expect a move up in the market well. This may be the most serious rn at 100 we have had in a long time, but it may also be too much, too soon.

I thought we would get a short term trade in gold if we got past the resistance a 1620. It didn't, and is dropping after a failure to get through it, so there is no trade here for a while. I'm looking for a bounce right about here; if it doesn't come, this is done for a while.

The most predictable chart in the market finally stopped being predictable, stopping it's "5day up, 5 days down" pattern. This is now starting to look like a top, but I wouldn;t go there until it breaks the 200dema, which at this point it just might do. Someday there will be repercussions, but for now nobody seems to care.

The dollar index is displaying the wide, loose trading that the SPX is, and in this case, a trend change will likely provide the juice for a move up in the market, volume or no volume. A trend change here, however, may just be a pullback to he 50dema, followed by another move up. Tha is about when the big money boys will pull the rug out from under the market.

The Powers That Be (TPTB) are trying mightily to keep the market from correcting before it gets to a new high, and so far they are succeeding. The market, however, is bigger than even them, and will correct, one way or the other. The longer they put it off, the worse it will be, Off course, that could very well be their intention, but that is the paranoia in me coming out. Sometimes, however, it pays to be paranoid.

I will have the new highs update shortly.

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