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Friday, April 19, 2013

Friday Weekly Charts

With 2 weeks left in the month, you can see by the monthly pivot the likely range we will be in fro those two weeks. As we are now bouncing off the middle pivot point, P, we are likely to get a bounce for a day or two, and also likely to retest it before the end of the month. I would say it is relatively safe to say we won't end the month lower than S1 or higher than R1. What happens after the end of the month is another story.

 Looking at the pivots on the weekly chart, you might conclude that we have topped for the year and will enter a bear market. That is clearly a stretch at this point, but no more of a stretch than saying the bull market is not over and we have higher to go, something someone well known said today. Anyone making predictions about the future direction of the market is basically talking out of the wrong end.

This is geting interesting. Gold has crashed, taking out one pivot point and almost a second one in the span of two weeks. Noticve where this week closed: right above S2. Calling a botom here might be certifiably insane, but pivot point wise, might be quite profitable. While gold is not really my favorite trading vehicle, I will be watching this, it could be quite interesting.

One thing that isn't interesting,a t least as a trading vehicle, is crude oil. It moves slowly (except when it is crashing), but pivot point wise, it has far more down side than up side potential here,

The Russell 2000 is now below R1, which should again be resistance. While this never made it to R2, it seems far more likely to drop here than go up. Rhe trouble is, it is a potentially long drop.

Today was probably another bounce in a now down trendng market, but I will play this one by the book and watch for a follow though day, which I believe will come as soon as Tuesday, unless we undercut yesterday's low. I doubt that we will get one, and will be looking to go short, but well aware that Bernanke is still out there, watching the market in between games of Pong.

I will have the new highs update shortly.

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