Once again we have retraced approximately 50% of the most recent drop, on lower volume, so it looks to me like we are going to get a small bounce here, followed by another leg down. The problem is, every time we did that during the last 6 months, it ended up resulting in another rally, and another new high, si I can't blame any bears for not gettting enthusiastic now. The bulls, though, seem even less enthusiastic, as we approach May. We will have to wait and see how this market behaves as it continues to move up, with the real possibility of a retest. The SPX refuses, so far, to break that 50dma, and until it does, you really have to give it the benefit of the doubt, I am still long, but much more cautiously than I was in February.
This time the dip buyers did not come out in force, aminly becuase they are probably smart enough to know that no bull market lasts forever, and this one is getting very long in the tooth. The fact that we are so long in rolling over tells me that we may have a bigger correction han normal this spring, but that is really beyond what I do here: I know we are in one, I just don;t know how long it lasts or how far down it goes.
I will have the new highs update shortly.