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Sunday, June 16, 2013

Earnings Growth Charts

 I have a total of 3 stocks from the earnings list reporting last week, and I have 3 more graphs that did not get posted earlier this quarter. Nearly all of the graphs have been posted this quarter. On the graphs, in the top panel the red line is quarterly EPS growth rate, black is quarterly revenue growth rate. In the middle, the red line is quarterly EPS, the green line is quarterly revenue, the black is price, and blue price relative to SPX.None of these reported the end of a fiscal year, so I did not include annual EPS. At the bottom the black bars are volume.

AEPI reported this week, and brought in some pretty bad numbers after a very strong run.This had a pretty spectacular collapse and is done for a while, but last quarter it reversed shortly after an earnings collapse, so I wouldn't count it totally out.

ASPS reported earlier this quarter, and this graph is as of that date, so I don;t know what it has done since. It is not a heavily covered stock and getting information on it is difficult, but it does appear to be slowing dramatically in EPS and even worse in revenue. This pullback is probably too deep to be considered a real base.

JVA reported this week, a quarter of no growth. Both EPS and revenue are pretty inconsistent: there are flashes of very high growth, followed by long periods of no growth, and price reflects that. This one may become a real growth stock in the future, but for now it just is not there.

NEU reported earlier this quarter, and the graph has is current as of that date. The data appears to be messed up (likely a typo in a date), but this has not gone anywhere since reporting. the rise in price is not as dramatic as it looks here on a linear chart, but this is in a pretty steady 5 year up trend, which may be in the process of stopping to form a base. I am going to go through the charts during some slack time and get these cleaned up.

SMP is technically on the earnings list yet, but will be on the next update. This has had a very steady, if unspectacular, rise in EPS and revenue over the past 5 years, but price has recently made a very big move. I'm not sure I like this one long term, but in the short term, it appears the market really likes it.

After a few years of pretty spectacular growth, ULTA has now posted 6 consecutive quarters of decelerating growth, Price appears to be in a classic dome shaped topping pattern, so we might be seeing this decline in EPS in the next few quarters. The trouble with IBD type growth stocks is when growth slows even a slight bit, they can really get punished. 

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