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Friday, June 7, 2013

Friday Weekly Charts

Here are the new pivot points for June. Since the pivot points did not contain price in January, March, or May, but did in February and April, if the pattern continues they will in June (there is, however, absolutely no reason to believe that that pattern is anything more than coincidence).  We have successfully bounced off the 50dma, and the next pivot point is righ at the May high, so that, we can safely assume, is our target for this current move. That may be a good place to start selling.

The weekly chart gives a very similar picture: we are bouncing off the confluence of the 10 week moving average and the R2 pivot point, with a resistance level at the May high. We have pretty good volume on the reversal his week, so this one might have some legs.

The Nasdaq also has bounced off the 10 week average after a very modest drop from he R2 pivot. We should hit some resistance again there, but there is a pretty decent chance this will break out.There is also a chance it won;t, and that might just lead to a collapse back to R1 or beyond.

Even the 10 week average is now above the R2 pivot, so the Dow has plenty of support here and very weak resistance. This also got a surge in volume on the reversal and, tight now, the up trend looks to be in better shape than on any other index.

The Transports have been having bigger pullbacks than the other indexes, but is also making bigger up moves, and is so far above R2, which supposedly is the upper limit if the yearly range, that any resistance it does find can be assumed to be temporary until proven otherwise. So far, that has not happened.

The Russell 2000 is sitting almost exactly on R2, which is more likely support than resistance now.  This has has a very mild pullback, which mean it will likely be leading the up move, which should give it a lot of strength. I have the upper horizontal line as the target for this next move, and I think it is likely to hit it.

The NFP numbers, which generally sucked (although about as expected) were given credit for today's rally, but on the charts, it was pretty clear yesterday that barring a calamity, it would rally today, and did exactly as expected.

I will have the new highs update shortly.

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