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Tuesday, June 18, 2013

The Suspense Builds

It looked like my computer might behave long enough for me to ge some annotated charts today, but it didn't, so I have the unannotated charts with pivot points again, which may actually be a better idea anyway, because support and resistance levels look a little clearer without the lines drawn in. One resistance level at 1633 was cleared yesterday, and another at 1649 cleared today, sp we may well have smooth sailing here, that is, unless we get a tectonic shift from the FOMC tomorrow. I hate being held hostage by Bernanke and crew, but there is nothing I can do about that. If the market rallies before the decision, I may be taking a lot of profits off the table as I have no idea what to expect, and have no confidence that i know what the market's reaction will be anyway. I expect the HFT boys will be going ballistic if the FOMC isn't very careful in the terminology they use. Anyway, it looks like 1685 is a pretty reasonable target here.

Crude oil has finally broken through that very tough resistance at 97 and looks like a cinch for 100. Are we about to repeat the commodities bubble of 2008?

Gold sure doesn't think so. I looks like 1320 is in it's sights again. Although gold really hasn't produced anby good trading opportunities, 1320 could be the bottom we are looking for. The problem right now is there doesn't seem to be much upside potential from there.

The yield on the 10 year Treasury was threatening to get out of control, but has moderated it's rise. According to both MACD and RSI, this is loosing momentum, so we may have seen the high in this for a while. That could change drastically after tomorrow, though.

The Dollar index is near opposite, losing downward momentum and appearing to bottom here. So far this has not really affected the stock market, which had been following the yen more closely, but now seems to be more fixated on interest rates. Who knows, maybe tomorrow it will start being obsessed with crude oil, or even the price of kitty litter.

It is going to be hard to front run the FOMC because I have no idea what to expect from them, and even less of an idea of how the market will react. An early rally will be a good time to lock in some profits if you are fully loaded up here, and I certainly would not be buying ahead of the decision, unless, of course, you are with Goldman Sachs and you already had the decision leaked to you.

I will have the new highs update shortly.

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