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Friday, August 30, 2013

Friday Weekly Charts

Well, that was fun. If you were watching the market intraday, we had the Secretary of State making a statement on Syria today, and it was fun watching the market react to every word, down, then up, hen down again, moving like a penny stock. In the end,m we finished down, just above where we were expecting it to, the Sq pivot point. August is over now, so we get a new set of pivots next week. The rally attempt we started on Wednesday is intact, and starting Tuesday, we will start looking for a follow through day, and with today;s volume being pretty easy to beat, we might get one.

On the weekly chart, this correction looks pretty mild and short; in fact, so short that it is probably not over. The last one we had lasted 6 weeks, and we are 4 weeks into this one, so I would guess we have at least a week or two for this one, assuming it doesn't turn into a more vicious. I'm not going to assume that.

On the Nasdaq  it has been quite mild; in fact, so mild I would not call it a correction if this wasn't taken in context with the rest of the market.

The Dow, on the other hand, is in a very severe correction. A lagging Dow is normally bullish, but this is bad enough to have me concerned we might be getting into trouble here.

The transports may be getting into trouble with rising oil, but so far, it hasn't really shown it. It has stopped leading, but the pullbacks have been relatively mild.

The Russell 2000 is also showing relative strength: it does get creamed pretty hard on the way down, but overall is holding up very well. I wouldn't really sweat a major calamity until this starts threatening the 10 week line, and we are a few weeks away from that.

August is over; it did show some chinks in the armor of this bull market, but considering it is normally a low volume month, it probably isn't a big deal. We should start getting volume next week, and by this time next week we should have a much better picture of where this market is going.

I will have the new highs update shortly.

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