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Tuesday, September 10, 2013

A Stake In The Bearish Heart

The SWeptember rally continues, right through the P pivot point and up to the R1 pivot. We will probably pause here, is not pull back slightly, but now it is apparent he target for this month is going to be R2, which may be a little tough to get to, but there is time, and looking at MACD, it looks like we have lots of room to move up. Volume was actually very good today. Looks like the bears are going to have to wait for October.

Crude oil bulls may be a little bloodied, bu not out yet. This may be finding support at the P pivot point, but even with weak support there, the 50dma is right below it. 112 is the up side arget here, and I still think we will see it there before the end f the month.

Gold has been pulling back, but it is also finding support at the P pivot point/50dma convergence, and that is likely to hold. This still has an intact up trend, and is likely to keep it for at least this month.

Also in an up trend is the yield on the 10 year Treasury. The inverse link between this and stocks seems tohave broke, but I think that is temporary: the move up here has slowed, and a slowly rising yield will do far less damage than a rapidly rising yield.

The Dollar index has also pulled back the the P pivot point, and may bounce (UUP was up marginally today). Notice the rapid drop in had in the last couple of days, which coincides with a rapid rally in the stock market. Here, too, rapid moves seem to have much bigger effects than slow moves.

Any thought of a bearish September seems to have been buried today. The move up in the last few days has been impressive, and volume is very favorable to the bulls. There aren't any signs of selling into strength that i have seen, and it appears the big money boys are pretty confident right now, so that is the direction I have to lean.

I will have the new highs update shortly.

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