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Tuesday, September 3, 2013

Follow Through Rejection

This morning was looking like a follow through day in the making, and with higher volume, we could have had one if it hadn't been for the fact that,well, the early gains didn't last long. I was hoping to get a clue about where the market was leaning coming into September, but it is still inconclusive after today. We do have a new set of pivot points, and it appears that, until a point is broken, the range for this month will be 1603 on the down side, 1656 on the up side. i have a feeling we will be seeing both levels att one time or another during the month.

The new range for crude oil is 102-112. Which way it goes first is unknown, but it will very likely touch both points before the end of the month.

 gold now has a range of 1367-1461. It actually came pretty close to the down side today, so it is more likely to move up than down from here, and may spend the rest of this month moving higher.

The range on the 10 year Treasury has a very compressed range, between 27.40 and 29.29. If today was any indication, I doubt if that range is going to hold it. Since the trend is up, I would assume the target to be R2, or 31.08. Of note today - a big increase in Treasury yield did not translate into weakness in stocks. The linkage might be breaking.

The Dollar index is not updated, so we do not have the new pivot points, but I think it is safe to say his is headed higher. This, so far, has not affected the stock market nearly as much as it normally does, but that could change quickly.

September has, as usual, begun with a very ambiguous start. We get a strong, high volume start, only to see selling into that strength, and at the end of he day, had gone pretty much nowhere. We will still be waiting for a follow through day tomorrow.

I will have the new highs update shortly.

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