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Saturday, September 21, 2013

Leader Charts

 It was another good week on the leadership list, up over 2.5%, which means the list should expand this week. PRLB was the biggest gainer, after bouncing off a prior resistance level last Friday (blue arrow). This has a slow but strong bounce, and on increasing volume, and both price and price relative are at new highs. The 50dma has been strong support for the last 6 months, but it could be a while before this sees it again. Technically this is probably within buy range here, biut i would wait for one of the many dips it seems to get.

EXPR was the second biggest gainer. This had a perfect bounce off the 50dma last week, started moving up, and gapped up on volume on Thursday, breaking out to a new high. Earnings was not the reason for the gap up, so bouncing off the 50dma would have been the ideal buy point has you seen it. This is also probably in buy range here, but big gaps for seemingly no reason make me nervous.

INVN was the biggest decliner, and is by far the most bullish chart of the bunch. This pulled right back to the 50dma and is showing signs of being accumulated: the "dumb money" gapped it down in the morning and the "smart money" bought it up. The timing is a little suspect: I would prefer to see it pull back with the rest of the market, but this has been a very strong stock for the last 6 months, and that is not likely to change anytime soon.
GMCR was the second biggest decliner, although it was not much of a decline. This established the bottom of a trading range when it gapped down on earnings last month, then established the top a few weeks later, and has been in that range since. This is so heavily shorted that any breakout will likely be a huge gap up, so about he only way to trade it is to buy it when it is in range and wait for it to report, but that also means taking some risk: in the recent past, that risk has been pretty low.

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