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Tuesday, October 29, 2013

A Fool's Errand


It's hard to believe, but we are already down to the last two days of October, and it's about time to try to guess where the market will be at month end (as if that was important). Normally, it is the pivot points which serve as a guide, and this month, they have worked nearly flawlessly. The rapid run-ip in the market in October seemed inexplicable, until you take a look at where the pivots points are. s recently as a week ago, I thought i would be improbable that the SPX would hit the R2 pivot point before the end of the month; now, it seems a foregone conclusion, and we could even exceed it. For what it is worth (which is not much), the probably target for month end is 1778.


Crude oil has had an almost equally inexplicable drop hi month, but again, the pivot points gave us some clues as to how far we would go. We came very close to hitting the S2 pivot last week, bounced up, and are now failing at the S1 pivot, which should lead us back to S2. Probable target for month end: 95.


Gold is a little off target here, having exceeded the P pivot after a nearly perfect bounce off S1, It looks like it is going to pull back into P, so he probable month end target here is right where it is now, 1344.


The yield on the 10 year Treasury  seems to have hit it's target and refuses to budge. I will probably stay right where it is, at least for the next two days.


The Dollar index is trying to get a bounce off the S1 pivot (UUP was up today, so this was likely as well). If the pivot point is a guide, the bounce will fail and it will come back toward  I'm not sure I would bet on that happening.

Historically, pivot points have been pretty good at predicting not only support and resistance levels, but also where the market will end up when the month is over. Why it is important where the market close at the end of the month than, say, a week later, is beyond me, but for some reason, I like to try to predict where the market is going. It may be a fool's game to try to make predictions, but probably suicide to make trading decisions based on it.

I will have the new highs update shortly.

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