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Thursday, October 24, 2013

Closing In On The Top

Yesterday we had 3 possibilities for what the market was going to do if it was going to stop moving up: a pause, a pullback, or a correction. So far it looks like a pause, as we bounced back up form yesterday's drop. For the time being, we coujld be stuck in this pattern for a while, but a catalyst could send the market in either direction. However, the probability for a chart pattern like this is a continuation of the up move, and it is likely we will head for R2 before the end of this month, which is coming soon. The market does seem to be losing up side momentum here, but that could also be working off some minor overbought condition, and could easily lead to another rally. For now, it looks likely we will spend a few days in a sort of handle here, waiting for a catalyst for a breakout.

The Nasdaq 100 has already passed the R2 pivot, so it really doesn't have a target here: calculating one  as I did here is a pure guess, and probably a waste of time. We are likely to hold support at the R2 pivot for a while, but a break down through it would be the first signal we would get of an impending drop.

The Russell 2000 is farther above R1 than the SPX, but still uner R2, and a breakout here would give us early warning of a move up.This has lost less momentum than the others, so if the market is destined to rally, we should see it here first.

The percentage of stock above the 50dma on the NYSE has hit a peak almost exactly where it is supposed to, and if this follows history, should start dropping from here. The market can, and usually does, contimue to move up after this peaks, but on narrowing leadership and for only about a month at best. It is possible, however, that this has not peaked and may move higher. If so, then the "countdown" resets. This has not really behaved as it historically does all year, so I am reluctant to make a call based on this.

The same indicator on the Nasdaq, while it has been a little more "normal: this year, also looks like it might have peaked, but at a lower level than normal. I am not confident at all that this has hit the top; in fact I think it is more likely we will get to a higher level, about mid to high 70s, before a peak, that means we have plenty more upside to go, but again, I do not have much confidence in these right now.

If we have not hit a top, we are probably pretty close to it. Whether it is a long, medium, or short term top is unknown, but one thing I do know is that a pretty hefty correction is overdue, so we are probably going to get one soon.

I will have the new highs update shortly.

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