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Friday, October 18, 2013

Friday Weekly Charts


Our journey to the R2 pivot point accelerated today, and we got some volume, so we are looking more likely to get there by month end than we did yesterday. For now, the only resistance we will be likely to have is the mid point between pivot points, which is about 1750, and I wouldn't count on that throwing up much resistance. About the only thing that could stop this rally is a bunch of gawd-awful earnings reports, but they are already excpected to be bad, so they will have t be really bad to get any effect.


The weekly chart draws about the same picture, just on a larger scale, with a year end target of about 1820ish. Unless there is a sudden and rapid collapse in November or December, it is quite likely we will get there.


The Nasdaq appears to have already hit the target I have for it, and is likely to blow right past it. The SPX looks like an index that may be ready to top, but the Nasdaq does not.


Neither does the Russell 2000, which should easily hit, and very likely surpass, the target here of about 1150. With this and the Nasdaq hitting on all cylinders, this market shouldn't see any major problems for weeks, if not months, to come.


It has been a while since I looked at a weekly chart of crude oil. This has pulled back, in orderly fashion, to support at 100, and may get a bounce back up here. Momentum indicators say it has a little farther down side to go, but the 40 week moving average and the psychologically important level of 100 may stop that momentum right here. Why oil service and exploration stocks are doing so well right now is a mystery; the market may be anticipating a reversal in crude here, or it may just be a flash in the pan.

Gold has been totally unable to gain any traction, and the gold stocks are in much worse shape than the bullion. This bounced up after breaking a support level last week; this will be a critical area, as this is trying to establish an up trend and staying above the prior low is going to be critical. Either way, I have no desire to mess with this: too much risk, nit much reward in the short term. In the long term, gold may be all we have left after Obama gets through with us.

The market is currently about as strong as at any time I have seen since I started watching the markets back in 2006. Either we are in for a very long bull run, or we are close to a top; my guess is the latter, but that is irrelevant to my trading strategies. I trade what is, not what I think will be.

I will have the new highs update shortly.

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