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Tuesday, October 1, 2013

The Sky Is Not Falling

The beginning of the monh come on Tuesday, and I can;t put the lines where the new ivot points are, but they are visible on the chart. There is no mystery where the P pivot point is: it is right where the market took off from today. Carefully watching the leading stocks in the market, it was obvious this pullback was not picking up steam, and a bounce came right where it was expected to. Volume, however, was not very impressive, and unless it picks up, this rally might not be long lived. 

 Crude otl had been in a mild pullback, but is now threatening to become a full fledged correcion, in time if not in price. The 200dema is the obvious target here, and that is quite a bit higher than the last time it was there. Long term, this may be in an up trend, but for the immediate time horizon, it's not likely to go anywhere.

With a new month, gold gets a new set of pivot points, and promptly collapsed to find that new support. What started as a promising up rend in July now appears to be over in he short term, but in the long term is still intact, if on life support. 

 The yield on the 10 year Treasury looks a little like the crude oil chart, and the recent drop looks nearly the same: a mild pullback that is picking up steam. It does have a support level just below at R1, and also has a rising MACD histogram, so this may be bottoming out, but I would not count on that yet. It is no at all inconcievable that we will have another trip to the 200dema.

The Dollar index chart has not been updated yet, so we don't have the new pivot points for this month, and I'm not really interested enough to calculate them myself. Suffice it ti say that this is losing strength while the market is gaining strength. Same as it ever was.

Another is a long list of Obama induced crises has come and gone, and the market, whcih looked like it was a little spooked yesterday, ignored the news today. The "the world is going to end if I don't get my way" style of management is not working anymore. I never thought I would see the day when the President of Russia has more credibility than the President of the United States, but it appears we are there.

I will have the new highs update shortly.

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