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Friday, November 22, 2013

Friday Weekly Charts

We are in almost the same position we were last week: facing the R1 pivot point. he difference this time is that, for one, time is runnign out on the month, and it may be that this is going to mark the high of the month. The otehr difference is we are coming off a recent pullback, and that may give us the needed momentum to get above R1. In either case, we are also facing a holiday shorted week next week, with the expected low volume, and just about anything could happen. We are in a seasonally strong time of the year, and it is very likely we will, if not rally, at least not crater going into year end. I am about ready to throw in the towel on my correction call, but I will give it another day.

There is absolutely no hint of a correction on the weekly chart, in fact, this almost could not look stronger. This I find interesting given that market internals have weakened, and leading areas have been hit pretty hard this week. We must have some rotation going on, or the indexes are being held up by hot air. Whatever it is, it is not showing up here.

It's not showing up on the Nasdaq composite, either, and that is troubling considering he number of Nasdaq stocks that have been beaten to a pulp lately. Momentume wise, this still has plenty of strength. Volume wise is a little less strong, but we are very unlikely to get much more than this in the next month.

When the Dow industrials take the lead, you start to begin thinking bearishly, but when the market weakens, the Dow will either go sideways or decline at a slower rate than the market. It is doing neither, which tells me the market is not weakening.

The Transports are the only sign of weakness this week, and that is absolutely grasping at straws. This move looks unsustainable: so did the last one earlier this year, and that came out just fine.

Even the Russell 2000, which had been the source of my growing bearishness, seems to have turned the corner. his needs to break out to a new high before I give up all hope of a correction, but it sure looks like it is going to.

The market is, except for the indexes, is starting to act like a market in correction: Something is going o give here soon, but possibly not until after he end of this year, as the bears seem to have lost any momentum they were building up, and are highly unlikely to gain any traction during the holiday season. So, I guess we have to wait until January.

I will have he new highs update shortly.

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