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Monday, November 11, 2013

Happy Veterans Day

 It was a sort of holiday and all, but the volume today was incredibly low, and price wise, we went absolutley nowhere today. We are now back up to ultimate resistance at 1775, and appear ready for another shot at a breakout. The correction that started last Thursday seems to have died a very premature death, but the market has not yet ended the danger of another drop. Overall it is still weakening, and we cojuld be setting up for another drop here. The trouble is the bears just don;t seem to be able to follow through, and they have several levels of support below to get through.

he Nasdaq has had a much weaker bounce, and looks much more likely to be heading down. This is now in a medium term down trrend in price relative, and that does not look like it is going to reverse anytime soon. The market can rally with the Nasdaq lagging, but it will probably be a narrowly focused rally, leaving a few sectors behind. That is normally something you see as a market is topping.

The Dow industrials are now breaking out to new highs, and price relative has maintained an up trend for about a month, bullish for the Dow but bearish for the rest of the market. If this continues much longer, the market should roll over pretty soon.

Out of the frying pand and into the fire: the Russell 2000 has entered a correction, got a bounce off the 50dma, and got back about half the loss. That could be it as far as downside, but the problem here is price relative: it is bouncing very weakly here, and if it starts dropping again, bombs away.

The market bounced back quickly after the carnage from Thursday, but it does not appear that the damage done has been repaired. We are probably in for some more down side, and sooner rather than later.

Happy Veterans Day, from a veteran.

I will have the new highs update shortly.


Anonymous said...

Thanks for your service to the country and for posting this blog daily.

It's very insightful and appreciated...

David said...

Thanks, it's fun (most of the time) too.

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