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Saturday, November 16, 2013

Leader Charts

It was yet another big week on the leadership list, up 3.7% overall, with lots of big gainers and 2 very small decliners. With this kind of action, being bearish can be hazardous to your health. NOAH was the biggest gainer. Last Friday (blue arrow) it was in the midst of a drop that was stopped by the 20dema, and it bounced back up for a big gain, topping it off with a breakout yesterday. The last two breakouts in this almost immediately pulled back to the 50dma; I will wait ti see if this one does as well. If not, it looks like another one that is going to leave the station without me.

HCI was the second biggest gainer. This one pulled all the way back to the 50dma, hit it on the nos, and bounced back up, and broke out again. The pivot points are not really obvious here, and I would not take what I have here as gospel, but either way this is looking extended here. Price relative is quite strong here. CMF is negative, but that is skewed by the high volume day this had in early October, I will be watching for pullbacks here.

TIVO was the biggest decliner, and it wasn't much of a decline. This is in a shallow pullback after making  a breakout move last month, and looks like it is going to head for the 50dma, which would be the ideal entry point, if you were inclined to get into this, which I am not, as it is not a long term leader; price relative is way below where is was 6 months ago. It might or might not be a good short term trade, but long term, this does not have the track record.

SBGI was the second biggest decliner. his is another on that bounced off the 50dma, but this is still range bound. This could be a large cup with high handle base, although if it is, the handle is severely flawed. The price relative line is not really cooperating here, it is following price pretty closely. You would prefer to see this kind of chart when the market is weak; in a strong market this should be moving up. Something can change here and it can make a move, but right now the odds are against it.

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