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Monday, November 25, 2013

Stopped...Right Where It Was Supposed To Stop

The moment of truth has arrived, and sure enough, the market got stopped cold right at the R1 pivot point. However, it didn't do it right away, and in fact looked like it was poised to break out in the afternoon, only to reverse and close negative. volume was heavier than at least I expected, as we are in a holiday week. I did not see any news triggering the reversal, but there probably was something going on, because the drop came right out of the blue. For now, my correction call, on life support, is still alive, and I do suspect we have topped for the month of November.

The Nasdaq has more room to move up before it hits the R1 pivot, and may do so, as we are seeing a potential reversal in price relative. Conceivably we could see the Nasdaq rise while the SPX drops, but not for long.
The Dow industrials continue to slightly out perform the SPX, which is theoretically bearish, although it has not been reflected here yet.  It does appear to be slowing down here, but so far that is a one day trend, so it's way too early to make a call here.

The Russell 2000 put in a strong performance today, and has been for about 3 days now, but that is not enough to reverse the medium term down trend in price relative. This also looks like it is going to roll over soon, and might get to the R1 pivot, which would be a perfect prlce to be stopped.  However, I would nt count on it getting that high.

The market may have found the top for this month, which is almost over anyway. We have a holiday week this week, and volume is expected to be quite low, but today, it was about average, so it could be we will not get to watch the computers try to front run each other for the next few days, something I was looking forward to. Instead, it looks like I will have to work at it.

I wlll have the new highs update shortly.


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