Samurai Trader

Relative Strength By Industry

2012-01-28T11:41:00.000-08:00

Here are the top 30m industries in percentage of stocks in the relative strength range this week. This reinforces what I sawyesterday: the weaker groups are the ones that are moving up fastest now, and smaller groups are making larger percentage moves. I will be paying most attention to thise groups that have 4 or more categories highlighted.

Relative Strength Scans

2012-01-28T11:07:00.000-08:00

Here are the results of this week's relative strength scan. There are about 1150 stocks in the top 25% of their 52 week price ranges, a slight improvement over last week. From left to right, the fisrt 4 columns are the stocks retained from last week's list, the 5th column is the new stocks this week, and the 6th column is the stocks dropping off last week's list.

The spreadsheet will be uploaded later today.

Retained				New	Off
ACAT	GCO	MOH	TNH	AGCO	ASNA
ACHN	GLNG	MTH	TOL	CBST	BVSN
ADS	GPI	NUAN	ULTA	CF	BWA
AFFY	HITK	NVLS	URI	DDR	FSII
AFSI	HOS	OAS	VPHM	EL	MAS
AGP	IDIX	OCR	VVUS	FFIV	MBI
AKRX	JAG	ONXX	WCC	FINL	MELI
APOL	JAZZ	PDLI	WPRT	GCI	MJN
ARIA	JBL	PHM	ZUMZ	JBLU	MNTA
BIRT	JCP	PIR		LYB	NR
BWLD	KLAC	PSMT		PII	PKT
CALL	KOG	PVH		SDT	QCOR
CFX	LEN	PXD		TER	RATE
CLR	LIZ	PXP		TPX	RAX
CMG	LNG	REGN		TXT	RBN
CRI	LSCC	RYL		VLTR	SAH
DCT	LSI	SAFM		WDC	SGMS
DEI	LTD	SCSS		WTW	SNDK
DHI	LULU	SIMO		XLNX	VOC
DKS	LVS	SPPI
EAT	M	STMP
EQIX	MAKO	STX
EXP	MDVN	SWI
FTK	MIND	TIVO

Leader Charts

2012-01-28T07:57:00.000-08:00

Overall the leadership list had a good week, up about 2%, but there weren't nay that made big gains. HITK was the biggest gainer. This got hit hard twice (once on earnings, I don't know the reason for the second one) and has done nothing but go up since. It is now back above the 50dma and price relative is rising again. Last Friday (the blue arrows represent last Friday's candle) this looked like it was in the midst of a dead cat bounce, but as it turned out it was a lot stronger than that. This may be range bound for a while. That bottom pivot point is probably a lot stronger than it looks, and any retests there may be pretty good entry points.

BWLD was the second biggest gainer. This is also range bound but in an up trending channel. Last Friday it was right at the bottom of that channel, and got a bounce up. The bounce up looks a little weak to me, and it is up against a pivot point that seems to be throwing up resistance. The price relative line, in a word, sucks. It will take a catalyst to break out of this mess, and I believe it will be reporting soon.

QCOR was the biggest (of 2) decliners, but at less than 0.5% it wasn't much of a decline. this is also trying to find support after a big drop, and seems to have found it at the bottom of the October gap. The volume pattern is pretty bad here, with increasing volume on the way down. The price relative line isn't any better. This needs some more work.

FFIV was the second biggest decliner, losing a whopping 0.11 a share. This broke out a week ago, gapping up and trying to establish a new trading range. It briefly broke the support at the top of the gap, but quickly got back above it. This may be about as good an entry point as we are going to get.
The price relative line is not particularly strong, but at least it isn''t dropping the way it is on so many of the other leaders. This one got hammered pretty hard during the 2011 bear, but has come back quite strong.

Friday New Highs

2012-01-27T16:34:00.000-08:00

There were 131 new highs today, here is the list.

These are the top 10 industries on percentage of stocks making new highs:

Name	Stocks	NH	Pct
Foreign Utilities	3	2	66.67
Building Materials Wholesale	3	1	33.33
Cleaning Products	5	1	20
REIT - Industrial	15	3	20
REIT - Healthcare Facilities	11	2	18.18
Home Furnishing Stores	6	1	16.67
Home Furnishings & Fixtures	18	3	16.67
Recreational Vehicles	6	1	16.67
Regional Airlines	12	2	16.67
Surety & Title Insurance	6	1	16.67
Water Utilities	12	2	16.67

These are the high volume advancers and decliners from the relative strength list:

Advancers			Decliners
Ticker	Relative Volume	Change	Ticker	Relative Volume	Change
LNG	2.08	11.79%	IDIX	1.95	-0.14%
ACAT	2.38	7.24%	WPRT	1.98	-0.23%
STX	1.82	4.90%	RYL	2.15	-0.97%
KLAC	2.32	4.12%	MIND	1.91	-1.19%
CFX	1.8	3.80%	LSI	1.55	-1.40%
LSCC	3.41	3.16%	KOG	1.61	-2.27%
JAZZ	2.38	3.14%	OAS	1.51	-3.21%
DHI	1.51	1.91%	BVSN	4.58	-3.68%
JCP	4.18	1.72%
QCOR	1.91	1.36%
RBN	1.5	1.10%
EQIX	1.86	1.03%
SNDK	1.7	0.67%
MOH	1.8	0.00%

I will have a complete earnings summary this weekend, and will post the price relative scan on Sunday.

Friday Weekly Charts

2012-01-27T16:16:00.000-08:00

The market is now in the midst of what can best be described as a bullish pullback, with a possibility of pulling back to about 1290, depending on how long it lasts. Volume shrunk ont he way down, and we did come well of the day's low, so it does appear we are still in good stead fpr a resumption of the up trend. You can see that the pivot points didn't have much effect this month: we got up above R2 before finally stalling. I still have ti investigate why the pivot points changed mid month, as they are calculated on the data from the previous calender month and supposedly do not change.

We continue to march slowly up on the weekly chart. Here the momentum indicators are still rising, and approaching last year's high is not out of the question. We betteer get better volume than we are getting now, however.

The Nasdaq is getting nominally better volume, and is starting to assert leadership again. This should be runnig into hellacious resistance right about now, but so far seems unfazed.

It may seem paradoxical, but when the Dow is relatively weak, that is usually a bullish indication, and right now it's relative strength over the past few months seems to be about over. This could be hitting a new high next week.

The transports are not only making a pretty good move, they are also getting volume.

The Russell 2000, which had been so weak for the better part of a year, is now kicking it into gear and is rising pretty fast. It still has a long way to go, but if it continues leading, it will go far. Unfortunately, "far" might not even get it to last year's high. That's how hard this got hit during the correction/bear market.

Despite bad economic numbers (GDP absolutely sucked today), or perhaps because of it, the market continues higher on the hopes of more "liquidity" (read "money printing", or more accurately, "credit printing"). It won't go on forever, but it might long enough to get the "right" people elected this November. But then again, maybe not.

I will have the new highs update shortly.

SYNA

2012-01-27T13:21:00.000-08:00

SYNA has now teo straight quarters where it broke out on earnings, and is very likely to be back on the leadership list next week. One thing to note here is the placement of the pivot points: this one established a high before pulling back, which normally marks the middle of it's new trading rang. It never supposed that high until today, whihc may mean it is still in the same trading range, the top of which I calculate around 40. Although today's breakout was a bit weaker than the last one, I think that target is probably pretty reasonable.

WRLS

2012-01-27T13:17:00.000-08:00

WRLS has what looks like a nice breakout today, with a few warts. On the price relative line, I highlighted a couple of areas where it was dropping while the price was consolidating, something you really don;t want to see in a breakout stock. I calculated a top pivot point of about 8.75. Today's high was 8.73. I have a suspicion this one isn't going to be going a lot higher.

This Week's Industry Performance

2012-01-27T12:00:00.000-08:00

Here are the top 30 industries in percentage of stocks advancing for the last 5 days (not including today). Just as I suspected, most if the stocks moving up this week were from weak groups, the only leading industries here are very small. I will re run this tomorrow with the new relative strength data.

Market Leader Performance

2012-01-27T10:37:00.000-08:00

Ticker	Performance (Week)	Relative Volume	Change
BWLD	3.56%	0.53	0.27%
HITK	2.91%	0.33	0.26%
CMG	2.16%	0.39	-0.18%
CF	1.68%	0.79	2.67%
FFIV	0.68%	1.43	-0.58%
MELI	0.17%	0.26	1.02%
NVLS	0.11%	0.81	1.71%
ULTA	-0.90%	0.49	0.22%
QCOR	-4.03%	2.24	3.11%
AGP	-4.98%	0.55	3.32%

Here is the performance for the leaders for the last 5 days, not including today, along with today's relative volume and change.

BVSN

2012-01-27T08:46:00.000-08:00

I was right about a 50% retracement in BVSN, but quite wrong about the timing. Now I am looking to go long here.

Early Industry Leaders

2012-01-27T07:59:00.001-08:00

Name	Stocks	NH	Pct
Foreign Utilities	3	1	33.33
Recreational Vehicles	6	1	16.67
General Entertainment	8	1	12.5
Machine Tools & Accessories	8	1	12.5
Small Tools & Accessories	8	1	12.5
Department Stores	9	1	11.11
Broadcasting - Radio	11	1	9.09
REIT - Healthcare Facilities	11	1	9.09
Air Delivery & Freight Services	12	1	8.33
Regional Airlines	12	1	8.33
REIT - Retail	37	3	8.11
Insurance Brokers	13	1	7.69
Management Services	26	2	7.69
Specialty Chemicals	56	4	7.14
Rubber & Plastics	15	1	6.67
Health Care Plans	17	1	5.88
Mortgage Investment	17	1	5.88
Residential Construction	17	1	5.88
Home Furnishings & Fixtures	18	1	5.56
Data Storage Devices	19	1	5.26
REIT - Office	19	1	5.26
Auto Parts	39	2	5.13
Paper & Paper Products	20	1	5
Technical & System Software	20	1	5
Trucking	23	1	4.35
Computer Peripherals	24	1	4.17
Shipping	50	2	4
REIT - Residential	26	1	3.85
Rental & Leasing Services	26	1	3.85
Regional - Pacific Banks	55	2	3.64

These are the early industry leaders in percentage of stocks making new highs.

Today's Pivot Points

2012-01-27T07:33:00.001-08:00

Floor		Woodie's		Camarilla		Demark
R3	1349.94	R2	1340.85	R4	1329.36	High	1335.89
R2	1341.7	R1	1328.37	R3	1323.89	Low	1316.02
R1	1330.07	P	1320.98	R2	1322.07
P	1321.83	S1	1308.5	R1	1320.25
S1	1310.2	S2	1301.11	S1	1316.61
S2	1301.96			S2	1314.79
S3	1290.33			S3	1312.97
				S4	1307.5

Friday Morning Update

2012-01-27T07:27:00.000-08:00

Nothing much has changed since yesterday;s chart. We are a little lower in the trading range, but entering a zone where we should get plenty of support. The market is doing another 10 am plunge, which means another bad economic number (I have UofM consumer sentiment scheduled for 9:55, but don't have the number). I will be looking for a reversal in about an hour or so. The leading sectors this morning are XLB and XLV, the laggards are XLU and XLP. Both the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 are leading. Oil is up, gold down, treasury yields mixed with the 10 year down and the 30 year up.

I have 49 new highs so far, with breakouts in DWCH, SYNA, QLGC, and STX. Here is what I have reporting, last night's on the left, this morning's on the right:

Ticker	Change	Ticker	Change
BVSN	-3.13%	AHGP	0.49%
KLAC	3.28%	DHI	2.90%
LSCC	6.02%
RYL	-0.59%
SYNA	3.81%

Price Relative Scans

2012-01-26T18:44:00.000-08:00

Here is the price relative scan for Thursday: 1 200 day breakout (Finviz screen here), no 100 day breakouts, no 50 day breakouts, and 8 20 day breakouts (here).

Thursday New Highs

2012-01-26T15:44:00.000-08:00

There were 241 new highs today, here is the list.

These are the top 10 industries in percentage of stocks making new highs:

Name	Stocks	NH	Pct
Foreign Utilities	3	2	66.67
Tobacco Products, Other	2	1	50
REIT - Industrial	15	6	40
REIT - Residential	26	9	34.62
Beverages - Wineries & Distillers	7	2	28.57
REIT - Healthcare Facilities	11	3	27.27
Specialty Eateries	4	1	25
Residential Construction	17	4	23.53
Department Stores	9	2	22.22
Auto Parts Stores	5	1	20
Cement	5	1	20
Cleaning Products	5	1	20
Sporting Goods	10	2	20
Technical & System Software	20	4	20

These are the high volume advancers and decliners from the relative strength list:

Advancers			Decliners
Ticker	Relative Volume	Change	Ticker	Relative Volume	Change
JCP	11.9	18.82%	MNTA	8.97	-20.83%
ACAT	7.46	20.03%	SNDK	5.7	-11.37%
LSI	4.37	10.88%	BVSN	5.59	-9.00%
WCC	3.26	6.24%	SIMO	3.51	-9.86%
URI	3.11	8.92%	WPRT	2.74	-0.98%
EQIX	2.93	1.63%	SPPI	2.6	-6.27%
MOH	2.57	3.24%	FTK	2.51	-10.09%
RBN	1.87	0.32%	MTH	2.46	-0.18%
TIVO	1.66	0.85%	NR	2.37	-9.37%
PKT	1.65	8.23%	M	1.81	-2.69%
MJN	1.5	1.94%	RYL	1.77	-2.72%
			LSCC	1.53	-0.60%

I have another busy day after the close. Here are the stocks I have scheduled to report, along with after hours trading: BVSN down 12%, KLAC up 3.6%, LSCC up 0.7%, RYL down 0.6%, and SYNA down 1.3%.

Is the Bull Party Over?

2012-01-26T15:18:00.000-08:00

Today doesn't qualify for distribution, as the drop was small and the volume was just barely lower than yesterday. Having said that, it does concern me that the market, from top to bottom today, had a very substantial drop, and again it was the leading areas of the market taking the brunt of the punishment. Whether today was a delayed reaction to the FOMC or just an overdue pullback is not know, but for now we can safely assume it to be the latter. The market is nowhere near testing any critical support levels, and is much closer to testing resistance, which, all things being equal, it could do at any time now. One thing to note here is that stochastics have shown some weakening, even with today's big move up, but have not pulled the trigger on a move down. MACD histogram has been dropping for a while, but so far all that is indicating is a slowdown in the move up. We could pull back a percent or two here anytime, but a major correction is so far not in the cards.

The Nasdaq 100 had a slightly scarier drop today, but is ion about the same technical condition as the SPX. We won't know for a few days whether this was a one day anomaly or the start of a trend.

I don't look at the NYSE composite much unless we are looking for a follow through day (IBD uses this as one of the indices to make that call. Ironically, the NDX is not one of them). This has been lagging even worse than the Russell 2000, and nearly had a failed breakout today, but unlike the other indices it rose substantially off the lows to nearly finish positive, and above yesterday's breakout point.

Also on the NYSE, the percentage of stocks above the 50dma didn't budge today. This has been over 75 for almost two weeks now, and is at a point where it normally reverses. It shows no signs of that yet, although I suspect it will soon. that does not necessarily mean a correctio: the market can mpove sideways for a while and have this drop. In any case, it is badly "overbought", and, at least historically, the odds of it staying this high are very low.

This is the same indicator on the Nasdaq. It is still trying to catch up to the NYSE, and looks like it might. It is only about a week over 70 and still rising. It is concievable that this will still rise while the NYSE starts dropping, but that won't last long. About the most bearish thing I can say now is a pullback is slightly overdue.

The bull party we had yesterday after the FOMC announcement was supposed to carry on today, but we did get a pretty nasty reversal Not nasty enough to be considered a key reversal, ans so far there is no real sign of a trend change. this may just be a pause to reload.

I will have the new highs update shortly.

JCP

2012-01-26T13:50:00.000-08:00

JCP has what looks like a very impressive breakout, but in reality just barely beat out the old high going back to last May, making this a very long cup and hadle pattern. The O'Neil breakout point is the high of the handle, where the middle line is, making this, even though it is barely at a new high, extremely extended. I have this one the relative strength list but did not have it on my earnings schedule. I can't tell if it actually reported or of this is a preliminary report because there are about 200 headlines both for today and yesterday for this stock.

Market Leadership

2012-01-26T10:12:00.000-08:00

Ticker	50-Day Simple Moving Average	52-Week High	Relative Strength Index (14)	Change	Change from Open	Gap	Relative Volume
NVLS	21.22%	-1.97%	73.05	-1.54%	-0.84%	-0.71%	1.69
QCOR	-12.97%	-21.65%	39.44	-0.03%	-0.69%	0.67%	1.47
CF	16.52%	-7.76%	67.67	-2.05%	-1.89%	-0.17%	1.46
CMG	8.91%	-0.40%	73.12	0.07%	-0.20%	0.27%	1.18
BWLD	2.54%	-6.19%	55.25	-0.23%	-0.51%	0.29%	1.1
FFIV	10.28%	-7.38%	65.74	-1.76%	-2.40%	0.66%	0.99
HITK	-0.22%	-13.86%	51.84	0.52%	-0.29%	0.81%	0.96
ULTA	8.58%	-4.01%	62.84	-3.59%	-4.45%	0.90%	0.72
AGP	11.70%	-11.65%	58.61	-2.05%	-2.69%	0.66%	0.59
MELI	5.50%	-5.82%	66.36	1.57%	0.71%	0.85%	0.45

Every one of the leaders except MELI has reversed lower after the open, as has the rest of the market. 3 hit new highs before dropping- NVLS, CMG, and ULTA. QCOR may be scratching out a bottom here, as it is churning on high relative volume.

Here is a link to the charts.

I have to be offline for a couple of hours, I won't be able to get the industry post done, and the after market posts will be later than usual.

Today's Leading Industry

2012-01-26T08:09:00.000-08:00

Name	Stocks	NH	Pct
Foreign Utilities	3	2	66.67
REIT - Industrial	15	5	33.33
REIT - Residential	26	8	30.77
Beverages - Wineries & Distillers	7	2	28.57
REIT - Healthcare Facilities	11	3	27.27
Residential Construction	17	4	23.53
Auto Parts Stores	5	1	20
Cement	5	1	20
Cleaning Products	5	1	20
Sporting Goods	10	2	20
Auto Dealerships	12	2	16.67
Home Furnishing Stores	6	1	16.67
Recreational Vehicles	6	1	16.67
Surety & Title Insurance	6	1	16.67
Oil & Gas Pipelines	37	6	16.22
REIT - Office	19	3	15.79
Industrial Equipment Wholesale	13	2	15.38
Technical & System Software	20	3	15
Air Services, Other	7	1	14.29
Food Wholesale	7	1	14.29
REIT - Hotel/Motel	14	2	14.29
Toys & Games	7	1	14.29
REIT - Diversified	36	5	13.89
REIT - Retail	37	5	13.51
Agricultural Chemicals	15	2	13.33
Trucking	23	3	13.04
General Entertainment	8	1	12.5
Machine Tools & Accessories	8	1	12.5
Major Integrated Oil & Gas	16	2	12.5
Small Tools & Accessories	8	1	12.5

Here are the early industry leaders in percentage of stocks making new highs,

Today's Pivot Points

2012-01-26T08:02:00.001-08:00

Floor		Woodie's		Camarilla		Demark
R3	1354.34	R2	1342.67	R4	1337.42	High	1327.18
R2	1341.32	R1	1336.39	R3	1331.74	Low	1306.53
R1	1333.69	P	1322.02	R2	1329.85
P	1320.67	S1	1315.74	R1	1327.95
S1	1313.04	S2	1301.37	S1	1324.17
S2	1300.02			S2	1322.27
S3	1292.39			S3	1320.38
				S4	1314.7

Thursday Morning Update

2012-01-26T07:50:00.000-08:00

When the daily and intraday charts agree on something, it's time to pay attention. On the daily charts I have been projecting a target of about 1340, and here on the 15 minute chart it looks like tht next pivot point is at 1337. We nearly got there this morning, but just after I got the chart, the market went into a nosedive and is about to give back what it gained. Among the sectors, the leaders are XLP, XLI, and XLB, the laggards are XLF and XLE. The Nasdaq and Russell 2000 are about even, but the Dow is way out front. Oil and gold are up, treasury yields down.

I have 202 new highs so far, with breakouts in ACAT, LSI, PMTC, WCC, and AUY. From last night I have the following reports: ISSI up 1.6%, LSI up 2%, SNDK down 9%, URI up 8.8%. From this morning (not all confirmed to have reported): ACAT up 12.3%, DEST up 3.5%, ESI down 9%, MJN up 5.9%, NEI up 1.5%, WCC up 5.7%.

Price Relative Scans

2012-01-25T15:38:00.000-08:00

Here is the price relative scan for Wednesday: 3 200 day breakouts (Finviz screen here), no 100 day breakouts, no 50 day breakouts, and 4 20 day breakouts (here).

Wednesday New Highs

2012-01-25T14:45:00.000-08:00

There were 198 new highs today, here is the list.

These are the top 10 industries in percentage of stocks making new highs:

Name	Stocks	NH	Pct
Foreign Utilities	3	2	66.67
Personal Computers	2	1	50
REIT - Healthcare Facilities	11	3	27.27
Office Supplies	4	1	25
Processing Systems & Products	4	1	25
Regional Airlines	12	3	25
Sporting Goods Stores	8	2	25
Department Stores	9	2	22.22
REIT - Residential	26	5	19.23

These are the high volume advancers and decliners from the relative strength list:

Advancers			Decliners
Ticker	Relative Volume	Change	Ticker	Relative Volume	Change
CLR	3.12	11.10%	BVSN	10.02	-28.77%
WPRT	2.71	2.23%	JCP	3.22	-0.95%
MOH	2.45	0.49%	CFX	2.74	-1.75%
EAT	2.08	1.99%	VOC	2.32	-0.27%
MTH	1.99	5.27%	LSI	2.03	-0.84%
SCSS	1.79	2.67%	NUAN	1.82	-0.14%
DHI	1.68	1.68%	BIRT	1.58	-0.64%
BWLD	1.61	3.06%	IDIX	1.58	-0.94%
KOG	1.6	4.96%
RBN	1.53	1.81%

I have 4 stocks reporting after the close, along with after hours trading: SNDK down 8.2%, LSI up 6.8%, ISSI up 0.2%, and URI up 6.4%.

FOMC: We Will Raise Rates When Hell Freezes Over

2012-01-25T14:31:00.000-08:00

I missed the FOMC announcement today because I didn't realize Bernanke was practicing for his next career, stand up comedy, with another press conference today. Not that I cared, I didn't think the announcement would have much affect on the market. I was wrong there, this market really likes zero interest for the rest of eternity, and took off like a banshee on the announcement. The mystery January rally is no longer a mystery, as some pretty savvy people were able to guess exactly what the FOMC was going to say, and have been buying in anticipation all month. One thing I was concerned about was the high level of CMF and the fact it was starting to drop. That drop has now stopped dead in it's tracks, and with still no whiff of distribution, it's awfully tough to find anything bearish to say. About all I can say is we are now overbought, which means virtually nothing: the market can frequently be overbought for weeks.

Athough he is not supposed to be, it is pretty clear Bernanke is targeting the markets, and they are responding. The Nasdaq hit yet another short term high in price relative, so it is reasonably safe to say the down trend is as dead as Obama's re-election chances. I suspect the recent strength of the Nasdaq was due to those same savvy people correctly guessing AAPL's numbers this quarter.

My, my, the Russell 2000 continues to move up, and more importantly, the price relative line is moving up as well. The is no BS bullish.

Ticker	Relative Strength Index (14)
XLK	75.81
XLB	75.63
XLY	74.83
XLI	74.77
XLV	73.72
XLF	72.8
XLE	66.5
XLP	64.97
XLU	55.47

Here are the sectors ranked by RSI. It is no surprise that XLK has taken the lead, most of that coming today, and no surprise that XLU is still last. Notice that 6 pf the 9 sectors have an RSI higher than 70, which is considered the threshold to being overbought.

XLK has been strong in the last 20 days (which is the time frame RSI measures), but very weak since the peak in September. This recent strength may be a short term flash in the pan, or we may be seeing some rotation into this sector. Right now my bias is towards the former.

Despite being in last place, XLU made a huge move today, actually having the highest one day gain on a day when "risk" was supposed to be on. If there is rotation going on, it just might be right back into here.

We are now stuck with low (or no) interest rates until late 2014. It is pretty clear that the Fed is not buying into the recovery we are supposedly in, and I suspect they see another recession coming. If you wonder how they low interest rates helps the middle class, it doesn't. It helps the over-leveradged asset rich, who will lose their asses if the dollar strengthens. They are calling the shots, and Bernanke will accomodate them until we have or Iceland moment, when the torches and pitchforks start coming out. Until then, we can party on in the market.

I will have the new highs update.

AAPL

2012-01-25T13:24:00.000-08:00

AAPL was the breakout of the day, and is by far the most over-hyped stock in the market, which is why it gapped so high, and also why it formed the dreaded black candle on the breakout. This is a very late stage breakout, with a low probability of success, and the price relative line is horribly weak. They have a history of sand bagging estimates, then posting unbelievably good numbers (by "unbelievably" I mean I don't believe them), and someday that is going to catch up with them. However, according to my pivot point projections, this still has a way to go before it hits the next taget, but I don't think I will be trying to catch it.

CLR

2012-01-25T13:16:00.000-08:00

CLR was the other sometime leader to break out today, although this technically broke out early this month from a double bottom base. The pivot points are a little confusing here, so I suspect the ones I have here are not correct, but at least the price relative line is fairly strong. This broke out before thee FOMC announcement, giving it a little more "credibility".

Today's Leading Industry

2012-01-25T12:11:00.000-08:00

Here are the industries with 85% or more of their stocks advancing today.

These are the industries with 15% or more of their stocks making new highs.

There are few leading industries on either list, meaning it is the crap leading the charge today. Gold, as expected, is making a big move up on the FOMC annopuncement, and the gold stocks are following along. Gold stocks have, for the last couple of years, woefully underperformed bullion, and are now among the weakest in the market. To paraphrase the Beatles, they have to get better because they can't get much worse, and I think we are seeing that today. How long this lasts I don't know, but if bullion keeps rising, so will these.

Market Leadership

2012-01-25T10:53:00.000-08:00

Ticker	50-Day Simple Moving Average	52-Week High	Relative Strength Index (14)	Change	Change from Open	Gap	Relative Volume
BWLD	3.19%	-5.72%	55.86	3.34%	3.23%	0.11%	1.68
QCOR	-12.32%	-20.86%	40.27	-2.48%	-2.43%	-0.05%	1.23
CF	17.91%	-6.81%	71.57	3.95%	4.04%	-0.08%	1.07
NVLS	23.59%	-0.12%	78.03	0.02%	0.10%	-0.08%	1.02
CMG	8.49%	-0.59%	71.95	0.16%	0.36%	-0.20%	0.81
AGP	14.37%	-9.86%	64.5	-1.84%	-1.33%	-0.52%	0.73
ULTA	11.16%	-0.26%	71.82	0.32%	0.41%	-0.09%	0.64
HITK	0.18%	-13.71%	51.64	1.48%	1.83%	-0.34%	0.54
FFIV	12.17%	-6.06%	69.19	-0.85%	-1.09%	0.24%	0.44
MELI	4.15%	-7.09%	63.83	0.10%	-0.92%	1.03%	0.34

If you missed it (I did), the FOMC announced early today, and are keeping rates where they are until late 2014. Bernanke is apparently going by the Japan playbook, hoping for different results. Ok Remarkably, the resulting rally in the market is not really being reflected in the leaders, BWLD is making a high volume move off the 50dma, but was doing that before the decision. QCOR is also trying to make a turn, but so far no dice. CF is also making a nice move here, on slightly higher than average volume. New highs - NVLS, CMG, and ULTA. AAPL is not on the list this week but will no doubt be on it next week.

Here is a link to the charts.

Breakouts

2012-01-25T08:28:00.000-08:00

My new laptop can fit 6 charts on the screen at a time, so here are the top 6 relative volume breakouts. I believe all are on earnings.

Today's Leading Industry

2012-01-25T08:04:00.001-08:00

Name	Stocks	NH	Pct
Personal Computers	2	1	50
Office Supplies	4	1	25
Sporting Activities	6	1	16.67
Surety & Title Insurance	6	1	16.67
Air Services, Other	7	1	14.29
Electronics Wholesale	15	2	13.33
General Entertainment	8	1	12.5
REIT - Residential	26	3	11.54
Department Stores	9	1	11.11
Home Furnishings & Fixtures	18	2	11.11
Sporting Goods	10	1	10
Telecom Services - Domestic	21	2	9.52
Movie Production, Theaters	11	1	9.09
Regional Airlines	12	1	8.33
Industrial Equipment Wholesale	13	1	7.69
Regional - Midwest Banks	53	4	7.55
Regional - Southwest Banks	28	2	7.14
Personal Services	15	1	6.67
REIT - Industrial	15	1	6.67
Farm & Construction Machinery	16	1	6.25
Major Integrated Oil & Gas	16	1	6.25
Farm Products	17	1	5.88
Residential Construction	17	1	5.88
Oil & Gas Pipelines	37	2	5.41
REIT - Retail	37	2	5.41
Beverages - Soft Drinks	19	1	5.26
Paper & Paper Products	20	1	5
Waste Management	21	1	4.76
Regional - Mid-Atlantic Banks	92	4	4.35
Trucking	23	1	4.35

Here are the early industry leaders in percentage of stocks making new highs.

Today's Pivot Points

2012-01-25T07:44:00.000-08:00

Floor		Woodie's		Camarilla		Demark
R3	1328.29	R2	1322.73	R4	1320.1	High	1320.26
R2	1322.12	R1	1319.6	R3	1317.37	Low	1310.36
R1	1318.39	P	1312.83	R2	1316.47
P	1312.22	S1	1309.7	R1	1315.56
S1	1308.49	S2	1302.93	S1	1313.74
S2	1302.32			S2	1312.84
S3	1298.59			S3	1311.93
				S4	1309.21

Wednesday Morning Update

2012-01-25T07:36:00.000-08:00

Yesterday's break of a support level has turned out to be far less significant than I previously thought, as we are still stuck in a small trading range. The market is doing what it has been doing for a couple of weeks now- dumping in the morning and rallying back in the afternoon. We do have a couple of market moving events. Those of you who don't live in a bunker know that AAPL blew away estimates again last night, breaking out today. The other is the FOMC rate decision, in which Bernanke will tell us what a wonderful job he is doing. Among the sectors, leading today is XLP and XLK, lagging are XLE, XLB, and XLU. The Nasdaq is leading, no surprise with AAPL moving up, but the Russell 2000 is about even. Oil and gold are down, treasury yields about even.

I have 66 new highs so far, with breakouts in SIF, CA, LGF, TAYC, AAPL, TSS, and CLR. I have 3 stocks scheduled to report this morning, but only one has: IGTE, up 3.6%. Apparently ISSI and LSI will be reporting after the close.

Price Relative Scans

2012-01-24T16:15:00.000-08:00

Here is the price relative scan for Tuesday: I have only one breakout, a 20 day (Finviz screen here). I do think it is good to see the number of breakouts dropping, as I expected it to, but to this low a level could mean I am doing something wrong. I will have to wait to see if this trend continues.

Tuesday New Highs

2012-01-24T15:22:00.000-08:00

There were 113 new highs today, here is the list.

These are the top 10 industries in percentage of stocks making new highs:

Name	Stocks	NH	Pct
Cleaning Products	5	2	40
Processing Systems & Products	4	1	25
REIT - Industrial	15	3	20
Discount, Variety Stores	12	2	16.67
Surety & Title Insurance	6	1	16.67
Industrial Equipment Wholesale	13	2	15.38
REIT - Residential	26	4	15.38
Beverages - Wineries & Distillers	7	1	14.29
Gaming Activities	7	1	14.29
General Entertainment	8	1	12.5
Sporting Goods Stores	8	1	12.5

These are the high volume advancers and decliners from the relative strength list:

Advancers			Decliners
Ticker	Relative Volume	Change	Ticker	Relative Volume	Change
BVSN	24.27	2.23%	EAT	3.74	-7.06%
ACHN	4.47	16.72%	RBN	1.89	-1.09%
QCOR	3.84	2.93%	KOG	1.62	-5.72%
WPRT	3.76	6.91%
DCT	2.15	0.18%
IDIX	1.62	7.82%
VOC	1.62	0.72%

I have nothing scheduled to report after the close. Before the open I have LSI, ISSI, and IGTE scheduled.

State Of The Market

2012-01-24T15:07:00.000-08:00

It seems we may be finding a resistance level here, and at least it seems to fit the chart. The trouble is, there is no distribution: I count zero distribution days and it is highly unlikely we will even remotely have anything like a top until we get at least 3. So, it may be that we are in for a minor pullback, minor being anything from half an hour to a couple of days. The uptrend is weakening, at least looking at the MACD histogram (which I have fount to be pretty reliable) but it is not weakening by much, and is certainly not high enough to be considered overbought. So for now I hold my nose and remain bullish.

One thing I was bullish about last week was WTI, which, of course, went nowhere. It did, however, stay above the 50dma, and above the mid point of it's current trading range, and I remain bullish.

I was not terribly bullish on gold, so of course it went up. It is now finding another resistance level, and I remain bearish, at least in the short term. Long term this appears to be building the right side of a long base, and is several weeks, if not months, from retesting the old high. When it does, I suspect we are in for another big move up. But that is too far in the future for me to worry about now.

The yield on the 10 year treasury made something of a move this week: not much, but compared to what it has been doing lately it was a big move. This appears to be finishing the bottoming process and may start moving up. Let's hope for Bernanke's sake it is a controlled move. Ah, hell, who cares about Bernanke?

Here is the un-updated dollar index chart, which has a nice neat pattern, as opposed to the UUP chart, which is a frightful mess. The UUP went up marginally today, so this probably did as well, and if so it is poised to bounce right off support and head higher. Again, for Bernanke's sake, any ascent here also needs to be controlled, as opposed to the skyrocketing it will do in the event of a major financial catastrophe, many of which could occur any day now.

The market appears to be running oout of steam, at least temporarily, and may be pulling back here. As the lack of distribution attests, it is highly unlikely we are going to see a major drop, and right now the most likely scenario is a 1-2% pullback before it moves higher. We do have an FOMC decision tomorrow, but lately the market has pretty much ignored them. We are also in the heart of earnings season, so that could change the complexion of the market, but so far, it is not showing up yet,

I will have the new highs update shortly.

COH

2012-01-24T13:35:00.000-08:00

Now that the heart of earnings season is here, we are going to start seeing some earnings breakouts. COH was the one most notable that I saw today. This is a long cup and handle pattern, with a handle that formed a small double bottom base, making the breakout point a little confusing, but it really didn't matter since you really didn't want to get into this before earnings. Most notable here is a weak price relative line, which puts the strength of this breakout into question.

When I looked at the weekly chart, I noticed something that has been one factor of the O'Neil system that I have not been able to figure out: base counting. One thing I see here is that the low of the current base undercut the low of the prior base (assuming that they are two separate bases), which resets the base count. Normally after the 3rd base, subsequent bases have a lower probability of successful breakouts, and stocks normally top after the 5th base. If this is a reset, then we are back to the early stage bases, where the biggest gains are normally made.

Today's Leading Industry

2012-01-24T11:58:00.000-08:00

Here are the industries with 75% or more of their stocks advancing today.

Here are the industries with 10% or more of their stocks making new highs.

Common to both list is a weak group, processing equipment and serveices, which I not only heve never graphed, I didn't even know what was in it. It has only 4 stocks, and one of those is being acquired and will soon be de-listed. That leaves one strong stock, PLT, and two very weak ones. It is probably safe to say we can ignore this group for a while longer.

Market Leadership

2012-01-24T10:23:00.000-08:00

Ticker	50-Day Simple Moving Average	52-Week High	Relative Strength Index (14)	Change	Change from Open	Gap	Relative Volume
QCOR	-11.79%	-20.24%	40.04	1.16%	1.83%	-0.66%	4.51
BWLD	-0.57%	-9.20%	44.6	0.82%	0.90%	-0.08%	1.19
FFIV	13.74%	-5.05%	70.82	1.93%	2.03%	-0.10%	0.96
CMG	7.91%	-1.28%	67.28	-0.50%	0.04%	-0.54%	0.8
CF	12.81%	-10.91%	63.94	-1.27%	-0.30%	-0.97%	0.78
NVLS	23.19%	-0.19%	76.7	2.06%	1.34%	0.71%	0.77
MELI	4.44%	-6.91%	63.44	1.54%	1.71%	-0.16%	0.56
AGP	16.85%	-8.30%	69.41	-1.74%	-0.96%	-0.79%	0.43
ULTA	9.93%	-1.54%	69.12	-0.35%	0.05%	-0.40%	0.43
HITK	-2.51%	-16.20%	46.63	-1.35%	-0.98%	-0.37%	0.35

QCOR is getting a bounce on very high volume, and may be beginning a move up the right side of a base. BWLD is still getting pretty high volume, but still going nowhere. I have one new high, NVLS, but FFIV is very close. There isn't anything making a significant move down.

Here is a link to the charts.

Early Industry Leaders

2012-01-24T08:10:00.000-08:00

Name	Stocks	NH	Pct
Cleaning Products	5	1	20
Discount, Variety Stores	12	2	16.67
REIT - Industrial	15	2	13.33
Department Stores	9	1	11.11
Sporting Goods	10	1	10
REIT - Healthcare Facilities	11	1	9.09
Semiconductor Equipment & Materials	45	3	6.67
Mortgage Investment	17	1	5.88
Telecom Services - Foreign	18	1	5.56
Beverages - Soft Drinks	19	1	5.26
Grocery Stores	19	1	5.26
Apparel Stores	46	2	4.35
Internet Software & Services	23	1	4.35
Trucking	23	1	4.35
Rental & Leasing Services	26	1	3.85
Regional - Southwest Banks	28	1	3.57
Semiconductor - Broad Line	28	1	3.57
Specialty Chemicals	56	2	3.57
Property Management	31	1	3.23
REIT - Retail	37	1	2.7
Auto Parts	39	1	2.56
Drug Manufacturers - Other	46	1	2.17
Industrial Electrical Equipment	49	1	2.04
Semiconductor - Integrated Circuits	56	1	1.79
Business Software & Services	66	1	1.52
Oil & Gas Drilling & Exploration	69	1	1.45
Business Services	104	1	0.96
Independent Oil & Gas	113	1	0.88
Biotechnology	172	1	0.58

Here are the early industry leaders in percentage of stocks making new highs.

Today's Pivot Points

2012-01-24T07:20:00.001-08:00

Floor		Woodie's		Camarilla		Demark
R3	1334.61	R2	1328.43	R4	1322.81	High	1325.34
R2	1328.45	R1	1322.2	R3	1319.41	Low	1312.95
R1	1322.22	P	1316.04	R2	1318.27
P	1316.06	S1	1309.81	R1	1317.14
S1	1309.83	S2	1303.65	S1	1314.86
S2	1303.67			S2	1313.73
S3	1297.44			S3	1312.59
				S4	1309.19

Tuesday Morning Update

2012-01-24T07:12:00.000-08:00

For the first time in nearly two weeks we have hit a lower low, broken a support level, and have established at least a somewhat bearish tone. I remember seeing something in the news last night that I thought would send the market down, but can't for the life of me remember what it was. Anyway, today's leading sector is XLV, way out in front, ithe four sectors running neck and neck for last place: XLF, XLE, XLU, and XLB. The Nasdaq and Russell 2000 are lagging a bit. Oil and gold are down, but treasury yields are up marginally.

I have 15 new highs so far, again not much in the way of breakouts, with the closest being KW. I have a report from VLTR from last night, that is up 5.3%, and from this morning I have EAT, down 8.4%.

Price Relative Scans

2012-01-23T18:21:00.000-08:00

Here is the price relative scan for Monday: 1 200 day breakout (Finvis screen here), zero 100 day breakouts, zero 50 day breakouts, and 1 20 day breakout (here). I am expecting the number of breakouts to drop as time passes, but this is a little extreme.

Monday New Highs

2012-01-23T15:39:00.000-08:00

There were 146 new highs today, here is the list.

These are the top 10 industries in percentage of stocks making new highs:

Name	Stocks	NH	Pct
REIT - Industrial	15	5	33.33
Cleaning Products	5	1	20
Lumber, Wood Production	6	1	16.67
Surety & Title Insurance	6	1	16.67
Oil & Gas Pipelines	37	6	16.22
Industrial Equipment Wholesale	13	2	15.38
Paper & Paper Products	20	3	15
Beverages - Wineries & Distillers	7	1	14.29
Gaming Activities	7	1	14.29
Agricultural Chemicals	15	2	13.33

These are the high volume advancers and decliners from the relative strength list:

Advancers			Decliners
Ticker	Relative Volume	Change	Ticker	Relative Volume	Change
BVSN	11.28	23.15%	RBN	3.97	-0.04%
VOC	4.2	3.43%	SGMS	2.94	-6.92%
MTH	2.44	0.35%	EQIX	2.05	-0.96%
AFSI	2.21	1.53%	BWLD	2.04	-0.41%
DCT	1.78	1.62%
JAZZ	1.63	2.28%
STMP	1.59	2.11%
WPRT	1.54	1.45%

After the close I have a report from VLTR, which is up 0.5% after hours. AIRT, which I had scheduled to report today, is down 2% after hours, but I do not see a report on it.

Where's My Monday Gap?

2012-01-23T14:54:00.000-08:00

It seems for nearly the last month we have morning weakness followed by a rally which brings us positive, but today we had almost the mirror image. A very nice rally early on, a bigger drop midday which started to look frightening, but then a reversal and slight rally which, on the SPX, brought us marginally positive for the day. We may be getting close to topping out here: CMF, which was at an extreme level, is coming down and volume is starting to drop, so it appears the big money crowd has decided this is not the place to buy. Whether it is a short, medium, or long term top is not knowable at this point, but the market is overdue for at the least a slight pullback.

Here's another clue for you all (no, not that the Walrus was Paul): the price relative on the Nasdaq was approaching a critical level and turned back down. This had been woefully under performing since the October bottom, played catch up this month, and almost caught up when it suddenly stopped. Now we have to see if this is just a pause, or if the longer term down trend resumes.

I have been pretty conservative with the pivot points today, so the "targets" are probably lower than they should be, but if they are correct, the Dow is now close enough to start feeling some resistance. Couple that with the drop in CMF (although this has not had a drop in volume), and we could be near a top.

If there is still evidence for the bullish case, it is the Russell 2000, which still has an up trending price relative line. It crossed an important threshold last week and held it today, and it it now continues up, the other stuff I pointed out on the other charts is probably moot. A leading Russell 2000 is, in my limited experience, about the most bullish indication you.

A lack of really compelling stock charts today gave me a chance to get some other things done, so I will give them a pass today. I will have the new highs update shortly.

Today's Leading Industry

2012-01-23T12:19:00.000-08:00

Here are the industries with 70% or more of their stocks advancing today.

Here are the industries with 10% or more of their stocks making new highs.

With a little market weakness today I was hoping to see some relative strength groups taking the lead, but that is not happening. Oil and gas pipelines is a group that I have been watching for a while now, as it is a former leader that fell apart during the 2011 correction, but has bounced back strong. That bounce back has paused, and we don't know yet whether it is just a pause or if it is topping out, but if it is topping out, I expect the rest of the market to follow it.

Market Leadership

2012-01-23T10:22:00.000-08:00

Ticker	50-Day Simple Moving Average	52-Week High	Change	Shares Float	Insider Ownership	Insider Transactions	Institutional Ownership	Institutional Transactions	Float Short	Relative Volume
BWLD	-1.52%	-10.05%	-0.53%	18.09	1.03%	-27.02%	88.28%	-0.18%	13.19%	2.01
CF	13.92%	-10.01%	-1.41%	65.16	0.41%	3.87%	98.40%	0.37%	1.95%	1.16
ULTA	9.68%	-1.86%	0.16%	47.58	2.54%	-10.27%	73.85%	-0.11%	3.45%	0.96
FFIV	10.89%	-7.62%	-0.21%	76.11	0.44%	-12.51%	88.93%	0.04%	3.28%	0.91
HITK	-1.20%	-15.21%	0.77%	10.19	14.34%	11.36%	65.02%	2.18%	13.41%	0.83
QCOR	-13.00%	-21.09%	-0.93%	58.21	0.14%	-90.64%	93.49%	-0.03%	10.49%	0.8
NVLS	21.05%	-2.48%	-0.51%	66.32	0.36%	4.34%	94.90%	1.18%	9.61%	0.76
CMG	7.96%	-0.31%	0.55%	30.77	0.89%	-3.47%		0.16%	9.65%	0.66
AGP	18.40%	-7.46%	0.72%	47.53	1.79%	-10.46%		-0.18%	10.92%	0.46
MELI	2.76%	-8.40%	-0.03%	30.46	0.08%	-95.13%	74.26%	-0.09%	8.34%	0.38

Here is the first look at the new market leadership, although most are the usual suspects. BWLD is the only one getting significant volume, but is not moving much. CMG is the only new high, but on low volume. Nothing here has an absurdly high short interest.

Here is a link to the charts.

Early Industry Leaders

2012-01-23T08:00:00.000-08:00

Name	Stocks	NH	Pct
REIT - Industrial	15	4	26.67
Cleaning Products	5	1	20
Surety & Title Insurance	6	1	16.67
Industrial Equipment Wholesale	13	2	15.38
Paper & Paper Products	20	3	15
Beverages - Wineries & Distillers	7	1	14.29
Gaming Activities	7	1	14.29
Agricultural Chemicals	15	2	13.33
General Entertainment	8	1	12.5
Major Integrated Oil & Gas	16	2	12.5
Small Tools & Accessories	8	1	12.5
Sporting Goods Stores	8	1	12.5
Health Care Plans	17	2	11.76
REIT - Residential	26	3	11.54
Rental & Leasing Services	26	3	11.54
Department Stores	9	1	11.11
Oil & Gas Pipelines	37	4	10.81
REIT - Office	19	2	10.53
Telecom Services - Domestic	21	2	9.52
Foreign Money Center Banks	11	1	9.09
REIT - Healthcare Facilities	11	1	9.09
Air Delivery & Freight Services	12	1	8.33
Auto Dealerships	12	1	8.33
Discount, Variety Stores	12	1	8.33
REIT - Retail	37	3	8.11
Food - Major Diversified	13	1	7.69
Regional - Southeast Banks	41	3	7.32
Life Insurance	28	2	7.14
Semiconductor - Broad Line	28	2	7.14
Specialty Chemicals	56	4	7.14

Here are the early industry leaders in percentage of stocks making new highs.

This Week's Economic Reports

2012-01-23T07:43:00.000-08:00

Here is the schedule for economic reports this week.

Here is the schedule for Treasury auctions.

Today's Pivot Points

2012-01-23T07:34:00.000-08:00

Floor		Woodie's		Camarilla		Demark
R3	1323.66	R2	1320.04	R4	1318.8	High	1318.49
R2	1319.52	R1	1318.49	R3	1317.09	Low	1312.28
R1	1317.45	P	1313.83	R2	1316.52
P	1313.31	S1	1312.28	R1	1315.95
S1	1311.24	S2	1307.62	S1	1314.81
S2	1307.1			S2	1314.24
S3	1305.03			S3	1313.67
				S4	1311.96

Here are the daily pivots from last Friday.

Floor		Woodie's		Camarilla		Demark
R3	1365.96	R2	1343.87	R4	1336.23	High	1334.39
R2	1340.73	R1	1334.34	R3	1325.81	Low	1296.48
R1	1328.05	P	1305.96	R2	1322.33
P	1302.82	S1	1296.43	R1	1318.86
S1	1290.14	S2	1268.05	S1	1311.9
S2	1264.91			S2	1308.43
S3	1252.23			S3	1304.95
				S4	1294.53

Here are the weekly pivots from last week.

Monday Morning Update

2012-01-23T07:07:00.000-08:00

Well, it almost looked like we were hitting a top last week as we encountered some resistance around 1315, which held for all of two days. It's gone now and , conservatively, I have the next pivot point at 1323, which we will test today at this rate. The Euro is rallying the morning on hopes the at Greece is going to get bailed out again (I have lost count of how many times Greece has already been bailed out), and the market, which had not been following the Euro of late, now seems to be. Leading sectors are XLF, XLU, and XLI, lagging are XLP and XLV. I have both the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 with slight leads. Oil, gold, and treasury yields are all up. The prognosis is bullish.

I have 74 new highs, and cannot find a single breakout. ASPS and KED are sort-of breakouts, but on not much volume. I have AIRT scheduled to report this morning but they have not. VLTR, which broke out last week, is confirmed to report after the close.

Price Relative Scans

2012-01-22T13:00:00.000-08:00

Here is the price relative scan for Friday: 2 200 day breakouts (Finviz screen here), 1 100 day breakout (here), 1 50 day breakout (here), and 5 20 day breakouts (here).

Earnings Schedule This Week

2012-01-22T10:27:00.000-08:00

Here is the earnings schedule I have so far for this week. I have not confirmed anything yet, and I will revise this if there are changes.

Earnings Growth Charts

2012-01-22T08:35:00.000-08:00

I had 5 stocks from the earnings list reporting last week. This will be the last light week for about a month, so i will be busy. On the graph, in the top anel the red line is EPS growth rate, the black line is revenue growth rate. In the middle the red line is quarterly EPS, green quarterly revenue, black is price, and blue price relative to SPX. If the stock is reporting the end of a fiscal year I have included annual EPS, which is the large red bars. At the bottom the black bars are volume.

First up is DIT, a stock that trades by appointment only. It had been in a large trading range for about w years now, and is coming off the low end, but reported a quarter of negative growth this quarter. Revenue is still growing, though, so this move up might continue, but I don't expect much out of this for right now.

EZPW is almost the opposite situation: EPS growth looks good but revenue growth is slowing. Price is currently pulling back from an all time high, so the market is probably anticipating that EPS is going to slow as well. This may be forming a long base here.

ISRG reported the end of a fiscal year, so it includes the annual EPS, which are going straight up. It reported a quarter of decelerating growth this quarter, which will slow it's ascent in the short term, but overall the up trend is intact. This has a small float but still does not get enough volume to get it on the leadership list, but I still consider this a leading stock.

NVEC reported a negative quarter, and it appears the up trend in earnings and revenue is over. Price has held up pretty well, so the market may be anticipating that this slowdown is temporary, but another quarter like this will probably send it flying down.

TESS was the only stock this week to report accelerating growth. This is currently in a very strong up trend in EPS, a somewhat weaker up trend in revenue, and is very close to becoming a leading stock. This just broke a year old down trend line and looks like it is ready to take off. I will be watching this one pretty closely.

The Republican Scorecard

2012-01-21T19:04:00.000-08:00

I have been spending a lot more time at McDonalds lately (they have a special on Big Macs right now, 2 for $3.50. too good to pass up). As regular readers know, my local McD has a nice big screen TV in it, always tuned to Fox news, so I have been paying closer attention to the Republican primaries than I ordinarily would have been (which would have been zero). It has been quite entertaining, and I would like to pass on some of my observations on the candidates. First, the defunct ones:

1. Donald Trump - Are you kidding me? What is really amazing is Fox news still actually listens to this guy.

2. Michelle Bachmann - The obligatory religious nut. Blamed the entire financial crisis on Obamacare, even though Obamacare was not in force in 2007. To prove she was a troglodyte conservative, criticized Rick Perry (see below) for innoculating girls against the human papiloma virus, saying it "took away the consequences" of young girls becoming sexually active. Yes, that's right, girls who have sex deserve to get cervical cancer. Fortunately there are enough sane Republicans left to bounce her from the campaign early.

3. Herman Cain - the pizza guy, who apparently had some problems with wandering hands (see Newt Gingrich below). A really rich guy, he devised a really nice tax plan to make the rich even richer. Unfortunately, his inability to remember anything about Libya (you know, the country we were bombing at the time?) did him in.

4. Rick Perry - It seems that the voters thought one George W. Bush was enough.

5. John Huntsman - who?

Now for the candidates still in the race:

1. Mitt Romney - Wall Street's candidate, he is the choice of the status quo. If he wins the nomination, it won't matter a lick whether he or the current President win, they both answer to the same "higher authority".

2. Rick Santorum - Taking the religious nut mantle from Michelle Bachman, and the war monger mantle from Trump, his only hope is to wait for Newt Gingrich to implode.

3. Newt Gingrich - This guy has baggage in his personal life that makes Bill Clinton look like the Pope, for which he blames the media.Has a serious problem with his temper. His answer to unemployment: "get a job". Food stamp recipients are a bunch of lazy whiners. I kind of hope he gets elected, just to see him eat those words.

4 Ron Paul - I was an enthusiastic supporter of Ron Paul in 2008, and while I support him this year, it is not with much enthusiasm. For one, he is really too old, he really does not want to be President, and he really has not addressed the root causes of the financial crisis (yes, he does blame the Fed, which is partially right), and thinks the answer is to go back on the gold standard (which begs the question, why did we have a Great Depression in the 1930's, when we were on a gold standard). He is the only candidate in either party who is not a war monger, and correctly identified why we are hated in the middle east. For that reason, there is no way in hell he will be nominated by the Republican party, even if he gets every stinking vote in every primary. If he does, be prepared for Sarah "I can see Russia from my house" Palin.

If you are looking for big change in the 2012 election, don't hold your breath. Remember the big revolution we had in 2010, that went nowhere? Or for that matter, the election in 2006 that went the other way? Nothing changed after those elections. A Libertarian acquaintance of mine once told me, "the only difference between the 2 parties is that one wants to drive us off the cliff at 100mph, but the other wants us to slow down to 99". I think he nailed it.

New Leadership Scan

2012-01-21T14:40:00.000-08:00

Ticker	Price as a % of 52 Wk H-L Range	EPS growth past 5 years	Return on Equity	50-Day Simple Moving Average	200-Day Simple Moving Average	20 day v/ms	X
NVLS	100	0.29	0.27	0.22	0.38	31.66	0.16
ULTA	100	0.79	0.24	0.1	0.22	16.39	0.12
CMG	100	0.32	0.23	0.07	0.15	12.69	0.08
AGP	88.04	0.4	0.21	0.18	0.2	12.59	0.02
MELI	85.05	1.31	0.39	0.03	0.13	12.9	0.1
HITK	77.95	0.32	0.29	-0.02	0.2	24.5	0.22
BWLD	77.44	0.33	0.17	-0.01	0.02	18.63	0.03
QCOR	75.63	0.42	0.38	-0.12	0.2	43.71	0.32
FFIV	72.99	0.3	0.23	0.11	0.23	20.11	0.12
CF	72.96	0.49	0.32	0.16	0.16	25.25	0

This week, allowing for low holiday volume, I have 5 stocks making the leadership list (the top 5 above), but again had to scraped the bottom of the barrel to get 5 more. The state of growth leadership is the one thing that is worrying me about this market right now, all other indications are bullish but this is not. At this point we really should be getting more than 10 stocks in this screen, and without fudging I would have had 2. I will be tracking these daily during the week.

Earnings Summary

2012-01-21T14:00:00.000-08:00

I have 5 stocks from the earnings list reporting this week:

Reporting a quarter of accelerating earnings growth - TESS

Reporting a quarter of decelerating growth - EZPW, ISRG

Reporting a quarter of negative growth - DIT, NVEC

All spreadsheets are now uploaded.

Relative Strength By Industry

2012-01-21T12:40:00.000-08:00

Here are the top 30 industries in percentage of stocks in the relative strength range this week. Most notable is the suddne decline in the cigarette group, which had none of it's stocks advancing this week. As usual I will be paying most attention to those groups with 4 or more categories highlighted.

Relative Strength Scans

2012-01-21T11:45:00.000-08:00

Here are the results of this week's relative strength scan. There are 1044 stocks in the top 25% of their 52 week price ranges, which is the first time in several months we have had over 1000. From left to right, the first 4 columns are the stocks retained from last week's list, the 5th column is the new stocks this week, and the 6th column is the stocks dropping off this week.

The spreadsheet will be uploaded later today.

Retained				New	Off
ACAT	FTK	MTH	STX	AFSI	ALK
ACHN	GCO	NR	TIVO	BIRT	APEI
ADS	GLNG	NUAN	TNH	BWA	AREX
AFFY	GPI	NVLS	TOL	CRI	BBBY
AGP	HOS	OCR	ULTA	FSII	CBST
AKRX	IDIX	ONXX	URI	HITK	CTAS
APOL	JAG	PHM	VOC	JCP	CVLT
ARIA	JAZZ	PIR	VPHM	LNG	DLTR
ASNA	JBL	PKT	VVUS	LSCC	ETH
BVSN	KLAC	PVH	WCC	LSI	FL
BWLD	KOG	PXD	WPRT	LTD	GBX
CALL	LEN	RATE	ZUMZ	LVS	GEOI
CFX	LIZ	RAX		MAKO	HMSY
CLR	LULU	REGN		MAS	INT
CMG	M	RYL		OAS	LAD
DCT	MBI	SAFM		PDLI	LF
DEI	MDVN	SAH		PSMT	LZB
DHI	MELI	SCSS		PXP	MW
DKS	MIND	SIMO		QCOR	PII
EAT	MJN	SNDK		RBN	PRGO
EQIX	MNTA	SPPI		SGMS	SLXP
EXP	MOH	STMP		SWI	WYN

Leader Charts

2012-01-21T09:47:00.000-08:00

It was a good week in the market, and for once the leadership list confirmed it, with 8 gainers and only 2 decliners. NVLS was the biggest gainer, no surprise since this started running away ass soon as the week started. Last Friday (the blue candles show last Friday's candle) it had just pulled back slightly, which careful analysis would have shown was back to a pivot point and a perfect buy point. I have been thinking all week that this is horribly extended, but I have another pivot point projected right above where it is now, and if it breaks out there, that may be another buy point. That may be a case of "if you torture the pivot points enough, they will go anywhere", but the beauty of paper trading is, if I'm wrong, I don't lose real money.

Speaking of paper trading, I bought ULTA, this week's second biggest gainer, when it gapped up a couple of weeks ago, one that I probably would not have done for real. A careful analysis of of the pivot points (and again, possibly a little torture), shows that the gap up was a correct buy point, and the is now right on another buy point, so I will be looking to add to this. The only real problem with this chart is the volume is awfully low.

BWLD was the biggest decliner. This is forming a handle to a long pattern, but the handle is dropping a little too far, and the price relative line is dropping with it, so this may end up being another base. This looks like it is going to test the 200dma, and that might be a decent trade there, but with the weakness it is showing now, the resik/reward ratio seems awfully high to me.

SAM is the second biggest decliner, and is also in a pullback which, last week, looked like it was going to bounce off the 50dma. This week it dropped below, so there really isn't much to do here. This one also has a declining price relative, but one thing it has going for it is a strongly positive CMF, indicating that there really hasn't been any huge selling during this pullback. If I really wanted to get into this I would wait for either a bounce off the bottom pivot or a move above the middle one.