Samurai Trader

Friday Morning Update

2012-02-03T08:20:00.000-08:00

I apologize for being late this morning, whatever problem I was having with Google docs last night has now spread to other websites, and I suspect I may have picked up a piece of malware somewhere.
Whatever it is, is is causing the web browser to run very slowly and use high memory. As you can see, we have finally broken out past 1332, with the next target at 1344, currently about 2 points above today's high. Today's NFP came in at what can best be decribed as unbelievably good numbers, as in it strains all believability. The unemployment rate has dropped to 8.3%, and the number of jobs added was about 100k more than expected. Call me skeptical, but this does not pass the smell test. The market is buying it, however, which is what counts. The leading sector, by a mile, is naturally XLF, buy far the most productive segment of the American economy, while those useless parasites XLU are lagging. The Nasdaq and Russell 2000 are both leading. Oil is up, gold down, treasury yields up huge.

I have 430 new highs. I can't load the charts so I can't see nay breakouts. Here is what I have reporting last night: SIMO up 3.5%, NVLS up 0.75%, CATM up 0.7%, CAVM down 0.9%. and CTCT up 17%. Reporting this morning: EL down 4%, IEC up 3.3%, and OYOG up 10.2%. I have no idea how much posting I can do today, there is no pattern to the problems I am having, they seem to come and go at random.

Price Relative Scans

2012-02-02T19:06:00.000-08:00

Here is the price relative scan for Thirsday: 4 200 day breakouts (Finviz screen here), no 100 day breakouts, 3 50 day breakouts (here), and 5 20 day breakouts (here).

I am still having trouble with Google docs, but the new highs spreadsheet did get uploaded. i don't have the link, but the link on the right side of this page should work.

Thursday New Highs

2012-02-02T16:17:00.000-08:00

There were 320 new highs today. I am having trouble with Google docs and have not been able to upload the spreadsheet. I will try again later.

These are the top 10 industries in percentage of stocks making new highs:

Name	Stocks	NH	Pct
Foreign Utilities	3	2	66.67
Personal Computers	2	1	50
Recreational Vehicles	6	3	50
Gaming Activities	7	3	42.86
Home Furnishing Stores	6	2	33.33
Sporting Activities	6	2	33.33
Surety & Title Insurance	6	2	33.33
Air Services, Other	7	2	28.57
REIT - Healthcare Facilities	11	3	27.27
REIT - Residential	26	7	26.92

These are the high volume advancers and decliners from the relative strength list:

Advancers			Decliners
Ticker	Relative Volume	Change	Ticker	Relative Volume	Change
EXP	2.67	5.95%	CMG	2.8	-2.05%
WPRT	2.6	2.34%	FTK	1.97	-6.19%
ADS	2.43	1.21%	ZUMZ	1.95	-2.83%
BIRT	2.4	4.62%	OAS	1.83	-2.32%
AFFY	2.33	14.04%	WTW	1.76	-4.45%
STX	2.32	0.84%	MOH	1.62	-0.16%
MTH	2.19	4.53%	ACAT	1.61	-0.23%
ACHN	2.11	11.59%	PHM	1.55	-1.02%
CALL	2.09	3.91%
LVS	2.08	1.77%
DCT	2.07	0.18%
MDVN	1.62	3.98%
M	1.57	3.65%
BWLD	1.56	0.64%

Here is what I have scheduled for after the close, along with after hours trading: SIMO up 6.8%, NVLS up 0.3%, CATM down 5%, CAVM down 3.8%, and CTCT down 0.4%.

Overbought, And More Overbought

2012-02-02T15:26:00.000-08:00

1333, which was not where I expected resistance to show up, is for now where we are seeing it, although two days is not long enough to draw conclusions. Wed still have no distribution to speak of, despite IBD's count of 3, and although the technical indicators are weakening a bit, that just means the up trend is slowing down. Whether we top here or na little higher, we are approaching at least a short term top,a nd are due for a correction of probably 2-5%. When that comes is anyone's guess, but mine is that it will begin within a week.

You wouldn't think so just looking at the Nasdaq 100, which is still barreling up. Howver, MACD is betraying some weakening, and this may start rolling over at any time. Again, with no distribution, I seriously doubt we will have much of a correction.

Even the NYSE composite, among the weakest of the indexes, has broken out and is moving higher. MACD here, however, is starting to move down, so this probably won't go much higher. I see zero distribution days until you go all the way back to mid December. Those I would not sweat.

A week ago I expected the percentage of stocks above the 50ma on the NYSE would reverse and move down. It did, for about a day, and is now moving back up. Right now is is at an extrenme level, and historically speaking, doesn't stay this high very long. I expect it to drop down below 75 imminently, but then again, I was expecting that last week.

The same indicator on the Nasdaq, while not quite as extreme, is still extremely high and the probability is it won't stay this high much longer. It won't take much of a drop in the market to bring this below 70, and if it does go below 70, that could give the market the fuel for another substantial move up.

The market is now seriously overbought, but it has been for the better part of a month, and can get more overbought. A healthy 5% correction here will probably be the best case scenario for the bulls, especially if it is accompanied byt he appearance of real leadership. If we continue to go higher propelled by crap stocks coming off bottoms, this won';t last much longer, and the resulting correction will be that much worse.

I will have the new highs update shortly.

LVS

2012-02-02T13:32:00.000-08:00

I saw lots of breakouts today, but none that I was really impressed with. LVS is one of the more heavily traded ones of the bunch, and is on the relative strength list, but the price relative line, despite a big move up in the last month, is still quite weak. that could be changing now, and this may take off to the moon after today's earning, but the probability is pretty low.

SLE

2012-02-02T13:27:00.000-08:00

SLE looks even worse. O'Neil probably wouldn't touch this one with a ten foot pole.

CNQR

2012-02-02T13:17:00.000-08:00

Here's one that, by comparison, doesn't look bad. CNQR has a decently strong price relative line, thanks to two prior breakouts in the last 6 months, but again, during the recent consolidation it was a bit weak. It is, however, at a new high, and i like everything about this except for the close, well off the high of the day.

Today's Leading Industry

2012-02-02T12:12:00.000-08:00

These are the industries with 75% or more of their stocks advancing today.

These are the induystries with 20% or more of their stocks making new highs.

The only leading industry that is common to both lists is home furnishing stores (not to be confused with several other home related groups), which is only 6 stocks, so the relative strength is slightly misleading. Having said that, there is a lot of strength here: my former nemesis, KIRK, is breaking out to a new high today, PIR broke out several weeks ago, and BBBY and HVT are close to new highs. Despite the small size, I wpould call this a genuine leading group.

Market Leadership

2012-02-02T10:34:00.000-08:00

Ticker	50-Day Simple Moving Average	52-Week High	Relative Strength Index (14)	Change	Change from Open	Gap	Relative Volume
CMG	6.34%	-3.26%	56.12	-2.94%	-1.82%	-1.14%	3.6
BWLD	5.90%	-2.67%	61.36	0.37%	-0.29%	0.66%	1.88
MELI	8.75%	-2.57%	66.74	2.54%	0.80%	1.72%	1.3
FFIV	10.04%	-6.71%	61.73	-1.00%	-0.45%	-0.55%	1.07
NANO	15.77%	-4.27%	73.24	0.98%	0.29%	0.68%	0.84
CBOU	20.07%	-0.98%	72.67	1.00%	-0.92%	1.93%	0.82
NVLS	22.69%	0.57%	72.94	1.54%	1.75%	-0.21%	0.76
CF	19.40%	-4.69%	67.86	-0.31%	-0.41%	0.10%	0.71
AGP	10.79%	-10.65%	54.84	-2.21%	-2.08%	-0.13%	0.55
ULTA	8.72%	-3.74%	58.79	-0.21%	-0.98%	0.78%	0.45
HITK	4.04%	-9.49%	56.86	0.90%	1.08%	-0.18%	0.25

CMG reported last night and is down this morning on high volume, but not as bad as I was expecting. NVLS is reporting after the close today. BWLD has been getting volume for quite a while now, but has been bouncing around in a trading range. MELI is doing quite well today. I have CMG and NVLS as the only new highs.

Here is a link to the charts.

RGR

2012-02-02T09:01:00.000-08:00

One of the best parts of IBD is a column they publish daily called "Investor's Corner". Fortunately, for those of us who don't get the paper every day, it is on the free portion of IBD's website (on the main page of the "Education" page, there are about 3 months worth of columns archived). Yesterday's column was about buying back a stock after getting forced out, which is timely as I had a really good illustration of it in the market watch gain. I bought RGR on a breakout near the high of the day, a little higher than I should have but it hit the high of the day pretty early (mistake #1). I set a stop for it, which it hit a few days later, at 37, which was too high (37 was the breakout point, I should have set it at least .50 below that point)(mistake #2). However, the critical mistake came on the next day, when I could have bought it right back as it moved up, and right now I would be sitting on a very nice gain. Had I not made that mistake, the first two would not have mattered.

Breakouts

2012-02-02T08:10:00.000-08:00

Here are this morning's top 6 relative volume breakouts. All but ZNGA are on earnings.

Early Industry Leaders

2012-02-02T08:04:00.000-08:00

Name	Stocks	NH	Pct
Personal Computers	2	1	50
Gaming Activities	7	3	42.86
Foreign Utilities	3	1	33.33
Sporting Activities	6	2	33.33
Surety & Title Insurance	6	2	33.33
REIT - Healthcare Facilities	11	3	27.27
Beverages - Brewers	9	2	22.22
Auto Parts Wholesale	5	1	20
REIT - Retail	37	7	18.92
Home Furnishing Stores	6	1	16.67
Recreational Vehicles	6	1	16.67
Regional Airlines	12	2	16.67
Industrial Equipment Wholesale	13	2	15.38
Technical & System Software	20	3	15
Air Services, Other	7	1	14.29
Food Wholesale	7	1	14.29
Major Airlines	7	1	14.29
Medical Equipment Wholesale	7	1	14.29
REIT - Diversified	37	5	13.51
Agricultural Chemicals	15	2	13.33
REIT - Industrial	15	2	13.33
General Entertainment	8	1	12.5
Small Tools & Accessories	8	1	12.5
Specialty Chemicals	56	7	12.5
REIT - Residential	26	3	11.54
Department Stores	9	1	11.11
Diagnostic Substances	18	2	11.11
Home Furnishings & Fixtures	18	2	11.11
Personal Products	18	2	11.11
Oil & Gas Pipelines	37	4	10.81

Here are the early industry leaders in percentage of stocks making new highs.

Today's Pivot Points

2012-02-02T07:54:00.001-08:00

Floor		Woodie's		Camarilla		Demark
R3	1350.31	R2	1340.85	R4	1334.02	High	1327.31
R2	1340.42	R1	1333.12	R3	1329.06	Low	1309.25
R1	1332.25	P	1322.79	R2	1327.4
P	1322.36	S1	1315.06	R1	1325.75
S1	1314.19	S2	1304.73	S1	1322.43
S2	1304.3			S2	1320.78
S3	1296.13			S3	1319.12
				S4	1314.16

Thursday Morning Update

2012-02-02T07:43:00.000-08:00

The market seems a little tentative about approaching last week's high, although I suspect ultimately it will. Yesterday's move up was one of the strongest in the last 10 days, and it should come as no surprise that we take a slight pause today. This morning the leading sectors are XLE and XLK, lagging are XLV and XLY. The Nasdaq and Russell 2000 are both leading big. Oil is down, gold up, treasury yields down.

I have 178 new highs so far, with breakouts in MTSN, CNQR, CDNS, DVAX, ZNGA, QCOM, and LVS. I have a busy day on the earnings front: from last night ALGT down 2%, CMG down 1.4%, HWKN down 1.8%, ININ up 0.8%, LVS up 1.6%, and NEU down 9.5%. Scheduled this morning are ADS up 1.1%, BOFI up 0.06%, EXP up 5.1%, IVC up 0.8%, NVLS up 0.2%, and PHM 0.1%. Some of those might not have actually reported yet, I will verify that later this morning.

Price Relative Scans

2012-02-01T16:02:00.000-08:00

Here is the price relative scan for Wednesday: 1 200 day breakout (Finviz screen here), no 100 day breakouts, 3 50 day breakouts (here), and 12 20 day breakouts (here).

Wednesday New Highs

2012-02-01T14:59:00.000-08:00

There were 299 new highs today, here is the list.

These are the top 10 industries on percentage of stocks making new highs:

Name	Stocks	NH	Pct
Personal Computers	2	2	100
Foreign Utilities	3	2	66.67
Auto Parts Stores	5	2	40
REIT - Healthcare Facilities	11	4	36.36
Agricultural Chemicals	15	5	33.33
REIT - Industrial	15	5	33.33
Sporting Activities	6	2	33.33
Surety & Title Insurance	6	2	33.33
Health Care Plans	17	5	29.41
Gaming Activities	7	2	28.57

These are the high volume advancers and decliners from the relative strength list:

Ticker	Relative Volume	Change	Ticker	Relative Volume	Change
STX	7.24	20.77%	WPRT	5.54	-7.74%
MDVN	4.3	21.95%	OAS	4.51	-5.66%
CFX	3.52	1.84%	CALL	3.98	-12.54%
DCT	2.46	1.81%	JCP	1.92	-0.55%
LSI	1.92	3.30%
ACAT	1.91	3.42%
PDLI	1.89	1.25%
AFFY	1.83	11.39%
MOH	1.83	3.10%
LSCC	1.79	2.65%
EQIX	1.72	1.35%
VLTR	1.68	0.23%
MTH	1.65	4.83%
AGP	1.63	1.75%
CMG	1.63	0.85%
WDC	1.61	4.62%
TNH	1.51	3.63%

Here is what I have reporting after the close, with after hours trading: CMG down 2%, LVS down 1.8%, ALGT not trading, HWKN not trading, ININ down 0.2%, and down 18%.

The Bulls Are Back

2012-02-01T14:10:00.000-08:00

Further reinforcing the view that that recent pullback was bullish, the Elder impulse chart never went red, and has now gone green again, flashing a new buy signal. While the SPX has not broken past last week's high, it probably will, and the most conservative target I come up with after that is about 1379. Today's volume puts the clincher on it as the buyers finally had enough of the pullback and decided things had gone low enough.

The Nasdaq did break out and is now on target, conservatively, for about 2920. The price relative line continues it's nearly straight up move: as long as that continues it is just about impossible not to be bullish.

To add insult to injury to the bears, the Russell 2000 also broke out, and also has a rising price relative line. The double whammy of the Nasdaq and Russell should be enough to keep the shorts scrambling, which will just make things rise faster. There is a time to be bearish: this ain't it.

Ticker	Relative Strength Index (14)
XLB	74.12
XLK	72.79
XLV	70.14
XLI	68.25
XLY	68.05
XLF	67.23
XLP	52.7
XLE	52.22
XLU	48.41

Here are the sectors ranked by RSI. I am surprised to see XLB in first place, but we did look at the dollar index yesterday, so that shouldn't be a surprise. We had very high overbought RSI on the leading sectors last week, and it does seem most of them came down a little bit.

When you see the leading sector with an RSI over 70, it's not a bad bet that it won;t be leading next week. On the chart, XLB has been flashing blue bars for almost a month, indicating it's up trend is severely slowing down, and a trend change could be imminent. I suspect we will see some of that here.

XLU is still in last place, but appears to be leveling out here and finding a bottom. Unfortunately, it is still under performing the market, and is highly unlikely to outperform it any time in the near future. We could be seeing some rotation into here, but probably not much, especially if the rest of the market starts moving up again.

I have been saying for the last few months that the Fed has lost relevance in the market, but it is becoming clear they still have the power to levitate markets. For how long is another matter, on that I won;t hazard a guess on.

I will have the new highs update shortly.

STX

2012-02-01T13:32:00.000-08:00

STX was a good choice for breakout of the day, although technically this was a pre-earnings breakout about 3 weeks ago. I projected a target here of about 24, and it not only broke through it, it almost gapped over it. this is probably in the process of forming a new treading range and any decent pullbacks here are probably buyable,

AZPN

2012-02-01T13:25:00.000-08:00

AZPN was more typical of the breakouts I saw today: nice volume and gain, but overall a slightly weaker chart, at least in termn of price relative. Everything else looks ok, and one thing to note is how low ATR dived before the breakout, indicating a shakeout in the consolidation prior to the breakout.

Today's Leading Industry

2012-02-01T12:04:00.000-08:00

These are the industries with 90% or more of their stocks advancing today.

These are the industries with 20% or more of their stocks making new highs.

Auto dealership is a 12 stock group that, while not terribly strong long term, is not terribly weak, either, and has bounced back very strongly from the 2011 correction, with 2/3 of the stocks int he group now int he relative strength rang and about half withing spitting distance of breakouts. Why this group is so strong right now I have no idea, but it clearly is.

Market Leadership

2012-02-01T10:32:00.000-08:00

Ticker	50-Day Simple Moving Average	52-Week High	Relative Strength Index (14)	Change	Change from Open	Gap	Relative Volume
AGP	13.52%	-8.89%	60.15	1.47%	0.91%	0.56%	1.5
CF	20.43%	-4.31%	67.79	3.72%	2.29%	1.39%	1.28
CMG	9.53%	-0.35%	73.2	0.48%	0.28%	0.19%	1.16
NVLS	20.40%	-2.01%	69.81	2.21%	1.09%	1.10%	1.16
HITK	2.74%	-10.77%	55.22	2.05%	1.38%	0.67%	1.06
NANO	15.39%	-4.92%	73.17	1.23%	0.64%	0.59%	1.01
BWLD	4.93%	-3.71%	58.88	1.94%	1.71%	0.23%	0.94
CBOU	21.22%	-0.57%	72.89	2.00%	1.17%	0.83%	0.79
ULTA	8.61%	-4.06%	60.87	0.34%	-0.52%	0.87%	0.76
MELI	3.93%	-6.98%	58.04	1.52%	0.83%	0.69%	0.74
FFIV	11.33%	-5.88%	65.36	2.12%	1.07%	1.04%	0.69

We are starting to get some volume on the leadership list, and it is on the upside. CMG, which is the only new high, is scheduled to report after the close, and NVLS is schedule for tomorrow after the close, so I am not considering any positions there until after they report.

Here is a link to the charts.

Breakouts

2012-02-01T08:52:00.000-08:00

Here are the top 6 relative volume breakouts. I believe all are on earnings.

Early Industry Leaders

2012-02-01T08:17:00.001-08:00

Name	Stocks	NH	Pct
Foreign Utilities	3	2	66.67
Personal Computers	2	1	50
Auto Parts Stores	5	2	40
Surety & Title Insurance	6	2	33.33
Health Care Plans	17	5	29.41
REIT - Healthcare Facilities	11	3	27.27
REIT - Industrial	15	4	26.67
General Entertainment	8	2	25
Office Supplies	4	1	25
Agricultural Chemicals	15	3	20
REIT - Residential	26	5	19.23
Sporting Activities	6	1	16.67
REIT - Diversified	37	6	16.22
Insurance Brokers	13	2	15.38
Air Services, Other	7	1	14.29
Food Wholesale	7	1	14.29
Gaming Activities	7	1	14.29
Specialty Chemicals	56	8	14.29
Telecom Services - Domestic	21	3	14.29
Toys & Games	7	1	14.29
REIT - Retail	37	5	13.51
Aerospace/Defense Products & Services	40	5	12.5
Beverages - Wineries & Distillers	8	1	12.5
Machine Tools & Accessories	8	1	12.5
Small Tools & Accessories	8	1	12.5
Rental & Leasing Services	26	3	11.54

Here are the early industry leaders in percentage of stocks making new highs.

Today's Pivot Points

2012-02-01T07:40:00.001-08:00

Floor		Woodie's		Camarilla		Demark
R3	1335.04	R2	1327.95	R4	1320.51	High	1316.91
R2	1328.22	R1	1319.77	R3	1316.46	Low	1302.19
R1	1320.32	P	1313.23	R2	1315.11
P	1313.5	S1	1305.05	R1	1313.76
S1	1305.6	S2	1298.51	S1	1311.06
S2	1298.78			S2	1309.71
S3	1290.88			S3	1308.36
				S4	1304.31

Wednesday Morning Update

2012-02-01T07:32:00.000-08:00

For a pullback, this one does not amount to much, and for the last 10 days we are essentially flat. A big move up this morning puts us right back into the upper half of the current trading range, with a retest of the previous high possible but unlikely. This morning's leading sectors are XLF and XLI, leading me to believe there may be a bit of a short squeeze going on, and the laggards are XLY and XLU. The Nasdaq is lagging by a good margin, but the Russell 2000 is leading. Oil and gold are up, treasury yields up pretty big.

I have 143 new high so far, with breakouts in AZPN, STX, MGAM, NICK, IACI, and LBTYA. From last night I have reports from STX, up 17%, and KEYN, down 5%. I had 3 scheduled for this morning, two (ALGT and LVS) are reporting after the close, and CRVL reported yesterday morning.

Price Relative Scans

2012-01-31T16:01:00.000-08:00

Here is the price relative scan for Tuesday: no 200 day breakouts, no 100 day breakouts, 2 50 day breakouts (Finviz screen here), and 5 20 day breakouts (here).

Tuesday New Highs

2012-01-31T14:47:00.000-08:00

There were 146 new highs today, here is the list.

These are the top 10 industries in percentage of stocks making new highs:

Name	Stocks	NH	Pct
Foreign Utilities	3	2	66.67
Auto Parts Stores	5	3	60
Personal Computers	2	1	50
Office Supplies	4	1	25
Specialty Eateries	4	1	25
Health Care Plans	17	4	23.53
Home Furnishings & Fixtures	18	3	16.67
Sporting Activities	6	1	16.67
REIT - Diversified	37	6	16.22
Food Wholesale	7	1	14.29
Gaming Activities	7	1	14.29
Toys & Games	7	1	14.29

These are the high volume advancers and decliners from the relative strength list:

Ticker	Relative Volume	Change	Ticker	Relative Volume	Change
CALL	3.14	12.14%	MTH	5.92	-10.90%
WPRT	3	9.53%	BIRT	4.26	-7.40%
LNG	2.05	0.71%	CFX	2.82	-1.43%
SAFM	1.86	0.83%	DCT	2.17	-0.18%
MOH	1.54	1.90%	ARIA	2.07	-0.74%
			ACAT	1.98	-0.50%
			JCP	1.84	-0.62%
			AGP	1.71	-1.43%
			TNH	1.53	-0.42%
			LSI	1.5	-1.05%

After the close I have reports from STX, up 5% in after hours trading, and KEYN, down 1%.

Onward To February

2012-01-31T14:35:00.000-08:00

Today was a near mirror image of yesterday - this time a strong morning and a weak afternoon. That is unlikely to change the big picture, which is a pullback in a bullish chart pattern. We did get higher volume today, but did not get the decline necessary for a distribution day (at least, I don't think so. IBD says we have 3 distribution days on the SPX, but I don't see any after December). The momentum indicators (RSI and MACD) are rolling over, but it looks like we are just working off mild overbought conditions. Until proven otherwise, this is the time to be preparing for the next leg up.

WTI is still consolidating along the 50dma as it has been for the last couple of weeks. The mid point of the trading range it is in is about 97.50, and as long as it can stay above that, I remain bullish here.

I have been trying to be bearish about gold, but it is now pretty clearly building the right side of a long base. It is now a little extended and could pull back at any time, but overall I would say the trend is up. When gold rallies like this, I get the feeling something is coming, and it could be quite unpleasant.

If the gold bugs are nervous about something, the bond guys are in a near panic. I have been trying to make sense of this chart for months, and just can't fathom what these guys are thinking. I would say it's a safe bet these guys aren't nearly as optimistic as stock traders, and they are rarely wrong.

UUP was up marginally today, and the dollar might have been as well, but the two charts are very different. This looks like it's a sure bet to hit the 200dma, which would have sent the market rallying in the near past, but the correlation is very weak now.

So far we are looking at a very mild pullback in a pretty strong up trend in the market. An up trend that has lots of warts, particularly in the lack of leadership. This pullback may give an opportunity for some big leaders to emerge, and I will be watching closely for that.

I will have the new highs update shortly.

MAT

2012-01-31T13:30:00.000-08:00

I picked up 3 more breakouts today in the Market Watch game (and got stopped out of one I already had), but now that I'm taking a closer look at the charts I'm getting a little buyer's remorse. One thing I don't like to see in earnings breakouts is a pre-earnings breakout like MAT had last week. Another thing I don't like to see is a weak price relative line. One thing I do like is today's volume, and a nice gap up over any possible resistance. I may be adding to this on any pullbacks, assuming they are just pullbacks.

TGI

2012-01-31T13:24:00.000-08:00

TGI looked pretty good as a breakout this morning, but looking at this chart it isn't that impressive. The price relative line is pretty weak, and it's hard to tell exactly where the breakout point is. This one ought to have a stop right below the 50dma, but if it fails it might be a good idea to dump it before then.

GRA

2012-01-31T13:20:00.000-08:00

I have GRA hitting a new high in price relative 10 of the last 11 days (that is all the data I have, it's been doing that for longer than 10 days), but it didn;t hit a 52 week high in price until today. It would hve been nice to get this one the breakout in December, but at that time there was nothing unusual about this stock. It has pretty clearly been accumulated for about the last month, and while it looks extended here, it is likely to go higher.

Today's Leading Industry

2012-01-31T12:02:00.000-08:00

Here are the industries with 70% or more of their stocks advancing today.

Here are the industries with 15% or more of their stokcs mnaking new highs.

Most of the groups with high amounts of stocks advancing are small groups, with the exception of health care plans, a former leading group that is still in the top 10 in 40 week average. These stocks all crashed last July-August, most bottomed out on October, and several have come back to nearly where they were before the crash. This will likely become a leading industry again very soon.

Market Leadership

2012-01-31T11:02:00.000-08:00

Ticker	50-Day Simple Moving Average	52-Week High	Relative Strength Index (14)	Change	Change from Open	Gap	Relative Volume
AGP	12.71%	-9.90%	58.12	-1.10%	-1.79%	0.70%	1.22
CF	15.89%	-8.05%	63.31	-0.16%	-1.78%	1.65%	0.97
BWLD	2.49%	-6.07%	52.42	1.64%	0.73%	0.91%	0.86
NANO	14.90%	-5.61%	71.98	2.11%	1.14%	0.95%	0.75
HITK	-0.20%	-13.41%	49.54	-1.73%	-1.78%	0.05%	0.72
CMG	9.13%	-1.01%	71.04	-0.30%	-0.76%	0.47%	0.52
CBOU	18.79%	-2.99%	69	-1.00%	-1.46%	0.47%	0.52
FFIV	9.03%	-7.98%	60.62	-0.46%	-1.22%	0.77%	0.52
NVLS	19.05%	-3.68%	67.43	0.92%	0.13%	0.79%	0.49
ULTA	10.25%	-2.74%	64.83	0.25%	-0.12%	0.36%	0.42
MELI	2.20%	-8.57%	53.13	-0.82%	-1.99%	1.19%	0.39

We have a lot of reversals of gap ups on the leadership list today, but fortunately on low volume. Only AGP is getting higher than average volume and it isn't down by much. Several of these are now forming handles on bases, so we may be seeing some break out in the coming days and weeks. CMG and NVLS are scheduled to report this week. There are no new highs.

Here is a link to the charts.

Breakouts

2012-01-31T08:54:00.000-08:00

Here are the top 6 relative volume breakouts. GRA has hit a new high in price relative 10 out of the last 11 days.

Early Industry Leaders

2012-01-31T08:07:00.001-08:00

Name	Stocks	NH	Pct
Foreign Utilities	3	2	66.67
Auto Parts Stores	5	3	60
Personal Computers	2	1	50
Office Supplies	4	1	25
Specialty Eateries	4	1	25
Health Care Plans	17	4	23.53
Sporting Activities	6	1	16.67
Food Wholesale	7	1	14.29
Gaming Activities	7	1	14.29
Toys & Games	7	1	14.29
REIT - Diversified	37	5	13.51
Agricultural Chemicals	15	2	13.33
REIT - Industrial	15	2	13.33
General Entertainment	8	1	12.5
Machine Tools & Accessories	8	1	12.5
Small Tools & Accessories	8	1	12.5
Home Furnishings & Fixtures	18	2	11.11
Pollution & Treatment Controls	10	1	10
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing	31	3	9.68
REIT - Healthcare Facilities	11	1	9.09
Textile - Apparel Footwear & Accessories	22	2	9.09
Auto Dealerships	12	1	8.33
Computer Peripherals	24	2	8.33
Regional Airlines	12	1	8.33
Water Utilities	12	1	8.33
Air Delivery & Freight Services	13	1	7.69
Aerospace/Defense Products & Services	40	3	7.5
Regional - Midwest Banks	54	4	7.41
Electronics Wholesale	15	1	6.67

Here are the early industry leaders in percentage of stocks making new highs.

Today's Pivot Points

2012-01-31T07:31:00.000-08:00

Floor		Woodie's		Camarilla		Demark
R3	1334.95	R2	1326.34	R4	1321.63	High	1314.59
R2	1325.56	R1	1320.85	R3	1317.32	Low	1298.92
R1	1319.28	P	1310.67	R2	1315.88
P	1309.89	S1	1305.18	R1	1314.45
S1	1303.61	S2	1295	S1	1311.57
S2	1294.22			S2	1310.14
S3	1287.94			S3	1308.7
				S4	1304.39

Tuesday Morning Update

2012-01-31T07:23:00.000-08:00

If you set lines at the 10 day high and low, you have a range of about 34 points, meaning the middle is 17 points from the bottom, a 50% retracement. In this case it is a retracement of a down move, which is a good indication that we are probably entering a down trend here. "Down trend" could mean we are hav ing a 1-2% pullback, or it could mean a collapse of epic proportions, although with the current lack of distribution days (IBD says there are 3 on the SPX, I'll be damned if I see them), and epic collpase is highly unlikely. The leading sectors this morning are XLV and XLK, lagging are XLE and XLI. The Nasdaq is leading slightly, the Russell 2000 is lagging. I have oil and gold up, and treasury yields are schizophrenic - the 10 year down, the 30 year up.

I have 100 new highs so far, with breakouts in FUEL, MAT, TGI, CNL, and GRA. I have reports from BIRT, down 3.5%, and MTH, down 10%.

Price Relative Scans

2012-01-30T19:15:00.000-08:00

Here is the price relative scan for Monday: 2 200 day breakouts (Finviz screen here), no 100 day breakouts, 3 50 day breakouts (here), and 1 20 day breakout (here).

Monday New Highs

2012-01-30T15:30:00.000-08:00

There were 98 new highs today, here is the list.

These are the top 10 industries in percentage of stocks making new highs:

Name	Stocks	NH	Pct
Auto Parts Stores	5	2	40
Office Supplies	4	1	25
Department Stores	9	2	22.22
Agricultural Chemicals	15	3	20
Home Furnishings & Fixtures	18	3	16.67
Recreational Vehicles	6	1	16.67
Sporting Activities	6	1	16.67
Water Utilities	12	2	16.67
Food Wholesale	7	1	14.29
Regional - Midwest Banks	54	7	12.96

These are the high volume advancers and decliners from the relative strength list:

Ticker	Relative Volume	Change	Ticker	Relative Volume	Change
JCP	2.15	0.94%	DCT	3.53	-3.66%
KOG	1.84	0.77%	CFX	3.02	-4.47%
MOH	1.53	1.49%	GCI	2.3	-6.90%
			JAZZ	2.11	-2.54%
			ACAT	2	-2.15%
			OCR	1.97	-0.57%
			LSI	1.67	-1.16%
			DDR	1.59	-1.78%
			TNH	1.57	-0.83%
			WPRT	1.52	-1.20%

I have one report after the close, BIRT, which is up 0.16% after hours.

The January That Wasn't Supposed To Happen

2012-01-30T15:16:00.000-08:00

The market is getting unbelievably predictable, with another morning drop and a rally the rest of the day. The only real challenge is guessing which sector is going to lead the way up. The trouble is, once the market gets predictable, it has a tendency to change. I have been expecting a mild pullback, and so far that is what we are getting. Even more bullish is the fact that the market is closing well off the lows, which could be an indication the big money is buying. Also Bs that the market weakness is being accompanied by low volume, so no one is rushing for the exits. Right now I am expecting a pullback to about 1220, and most likely a move up from there. We can only wait.

I had been bemoaning the weakness of the Nasdaq for months, but that weakness is done. Even with price dropping, price relative is rising. Until price relative starts dropping, I would say it is safe to say we are not going to have a major correction, and the lack of distribution days indicates we won't have one for quite a while. This was definitely not the January I expected.

The price relative of the Dow industrials has stopped dropping. That is about the only bearish indication I have found. Seriously.

The Russell 2000 was a little weak today, and the price relative did drop a bit, but the up trend is intact. I suppose I could torture the pivot points to come up with a lower target price, but at this point I don't really see any point to it.

There is one day left in January, the month I expected, if not an epic collapse, at least something of a collapse. It did the exact opposite. I am sure glad I'm not like some other bloggers (who shall remain nameless) who won't admit they were wrong and stayed short the entire month. PPT, HFT, QE, or whatever the reason, I trade what the market does, not what it is supposed to do.

I will have the new highs update shortly.

TMP

2012-01-30T13:16:00.000-08:00

Breakouts were few today, TMP being the one with highest relative volume. This one looks like it is trying to bottom, and may have done so, although the 200dma is still descending it is likely to turn soon. However, with a volume "surge" of a little over 100k shares, this one may move up, but not very fast.

Today's Leading Industry

2012-01-30T11:59:00.000-08:00

Here are the industries with 50% or more of their stocks advancing today.

Here are the industries with 10% or more of their stocks making new highs.

One of the more spectacular breakouts last week was JCP, whcih is one of 4 strong stocks in the 9 stock department stores group. While this is not yet a leading industry, and half of the stocks in the group look very weak, it is probably one to keep an eye on as a few look like they are ready to move up with the group. In particular, BONT is just now coming off a 52 week low and appears to be starting a new uptrend which may be good for a pretty hefty gain.

Market Leadership

2012-01-30T10:20:00.000-08:00

Ticker	50-Day Simple Moving Average	52-Week High	Change	Shares Float	Insider Ownership	Insider Transactions	Institutional Ownership	Institutional Transactions	Float Short	Relative Volume
BWLD	0.74%	-7.72%	-1.89%	18.09	1.03%	-27.02%	87.95%	-0.62%	13.82%	0.88
CF	15.63%	-8.35%	-1.88%	65.16	0.41%	3.87%	98.43%	0.42%	2.98%	0.86
CBOU	20.08%	-2.36%	-0.88%	20.08	6.86%	-78.37%	69.03%	0.35%	11.48%	0.78
NVLS	18.21%	-4.90%	-1.89%	66.32	0.36%	4.34%	94.90%	1.00%	10.05%	0.65
HITK	2.82%	-10.88%	0.40%	10.19	14.34%	11.36%	65.84%	3.51%	11.10%	0.61
ULTA	9.17%	-3.82%	-0.92%	47.58	2.54%	-10.27%	73.62%	-0.39%	3.99%	0.59
FFIV	9.32%	-7.87%	-0.38%	78.78	0.44%	-12.55%	88.89%	-15.95%	3.04%	0.58
NANO	11.81%	-8.40%	-1.45%	20.49	4.26%	-23.99%	69.81%	-1.41%	7.02%	0.53
CMG	9.11%	-1.27%	-0.30%	30.77	0.57%	-5.31%		-0.10%	8.45%	0.46
AGP	14.39%	-8.91%	-0.89%	47.53	1.79%	-4.46%		-0.37%	12.14%	0.31
MELI	3.61%	-7.37%	-1.71%	30.46	0.08%	-95.13%	74.38%	0.06%	8.63%	0.22

Here is the new leadership list for this week. Notice none are geting higher than average volume, which is good; we wantt to see leaders declin eon low volume during market weakness. Anyhting with more than 10% of the float short is a potential short squeeze candidate, but none here are absurdly high. None are at new highs.

Here is a link to the charts.

Early Industry Leaders

2012-01-30T08:31:00.000-08:00

Name	Stocks	NH	Pct
Auto Parts Stores	5	2	40
Department Stores	9	2	22.22
Recreational Vehicles	6	1	16.67
Food Wholesale	7	1	14.29
Agricultural Chemicals	15	2	13.33
Health Care Plans	17	2	11.76
Accident & Health Insurance	9	1	11.11
Home Furnishings & Fixtures	18	2	11.11
Sporting Goods	10	1	10
Broadcasting - Radio	11	1	9.09
REIT - Healthcare Facilities	11	1	9.09
Water Utilities	12	1	8.33
Industrial Equipment Wholesale	13	1	7.69
Insurance Brokers	13	1	7.69
Mortgage Investment	17	1	5.88
Regional - Midwest Banks	54	3	5.56
Paper & Paper Products	20	1	5
Wireless Communications	42	2	4.76
Trucking	23	1	4.35
Diversified Electronics	50	2	4
REIT - Residential	26	1	3.85
Rental & Leasing Services	26	1	3.85
Regional - Pacific Banks	56	2	3.57
Credit Services	34	1	2.94
Specialty Retail, Other	34	1	2.94
Biotechnology	172	5	2.91
REIT - Diversified	37	1	2.7
Regional - Southeast Banks	41	1	2.44
Industrial Electrical Equipment	49	1	2.04

Here are the early industry leaders in percentage of stocks making new highs.

This Week's Economic Reports

2012-01-30T08:02:00.000-08:00

Here is the schedule for economic reports this week.

Here is the Treasury auction schedule.

Today's Pivot Points

2012-01-30T07:51:00.000-08:00

Floor		Woodie's		Camarilla		Demark
R3	1328.69	R2	1324.45	R4	1320.92	High	1322.37
R2	1324.38	R1	1320.5	R3	1318.62	Low	1314.03
R1	1320.35	P	1316.11	R2	1317.86
P	1316.04	S1	1312.16	R1	1317.09
S1	1312.01	S2	1307.77	S1	1315.57
S2	1307.7			S2	1314.8
S3	1303.67			S3	1314.04
				S4	1311.74

These are the daily pivots from Friday.

Floor		Woodie's		Camarillo		Demark
R3	1358.59	R2	1345.46	R4	1331.41	High	1338.61
R2	1346.03	R1	1330.04	R3	1323.87	Low	1311.2
R1	1331.18	P	1318.05	R2	1321.36
P	1318.62	S1	1302.63	R1	1318.84
S1	1303.77	S2	1290.64	S1	1313.82
S2	1291.21			S2	1311.3
S3	1276.36			S3	1308.79
				S4	1301.25

These are the weekly pivots from last week.

Monday Morning Update

2012-01-30T07:38:00.000-08:00

Those of you who were using Clearstation got the same rude surprise I got this morning with the discovery that E-Trade closed it down over the weekend. Not a great loss, as anything you could do in Clearstation could be done better with Finviz, but the message boards on Clearstation were a pretty good source of ideas. I never can figure out why one company buys another company, pnly to shut it down. Now lets hope they don't buy Finviz. The market is breaking more support this morning, and I am trying to find the next support level, which I have tentatively at 1294. I don't know what triggered the avalanche, but European markets are down as well, so it probably has something to do with Europe. Among the sectors the leaders are XLK and XLU, the laggards are XLE and XLF. The Nasdaq is about even, the Russell 2000 is lagging. Oil, gold, and treasury yields are all down.

I have 38 new highs, with no breakouts that I can see. I have one stocks from the relative strength list reporting this morning, GCI, which is down 7%.

Bank Body Count

2012-01-29T18:38:00.000-08:00

I fell asleep at the switch last week and missed 3 bank failures. This week there were 4 (I am not going to waste time with the cost to the FDIC, they are broke anyway). They were:

BankEast Knoxville TN
Patriot Bank Minnesota Forest Lake MN
Tennessee Commerce Bank Franklin TN
First Guaranty Bank and Trust Company of Jacksonville Jacksonville FL

Here are the 3 from last week:

American Eagle Savings Bank Boothwyn PA
The First State Bank Stockbridge GA
Central Florida State Bank Belleview FL

That brings the 2012 body count to 7.

Price Relative Scans

2012-01-29T11:53:00.000-08:00

Here is the price relative scan for Friday: 4 200 day breakouts (Finviz screen here), no 100 day breakouts, 1 50 day breakout (here), and 7 20 day breakouts (here).

FUL	9	BVSN	6
GRA	9	UCTT	6
FOLD	8	VOXX	6
IMOS	8	IVZ	6
HT	8	NEWP	6
LNET	8	WAL	6
RUTH	8	KV-A	6
CNH	8	CGI	6
CASC	8	CRAY	6
CAT	8	EQIX	6
COR	8	FLT	6
ASR	8	GILD	6
SBRA	7	GHL	6
CQP	7	MTSN	6
CRUS	7	UEPS	6
SHO	7	PEB	6
CAP	7	TGH	6
CLDX	7	WOOF	6
MTSC	7	WINA	6
TER	7	ASH	6
AEPI	7	LL	6
DCT	7	QLGC	6
POOL	7	STC	6
		UEC	6

For the last two weeks I have been keeping track of stocks making new highs in price relative. The table above is all the stocks making new highs 6 or more times in the last 10 days. I have been working on a way to incorporate the price relative data into some sort of rating for each stock, roughly analagous to IBD's relative strength rating, but imparting more information. I will probably be doing a post like this on weekends.

Earnings Schedule This Week

2012-01-29T10:21:00.000-08:00

Here is the earnings schedule i have for this week. I have nothing confirmed so far, and will likely have a revision or two during the week.

Earnings Growth Charts

2012-01-29T07:52:00.000-08:00

I had 9 stocks from the earnings list reporting last week, and chose the 5 most of interest to graph. In the top panel, the red line is quarterly EPS growth rate, black is quarterly revenue growth rate. In the middle, the red line is quarterly EPS, the green line is quarterly revenue, the black line is price, and the blue is price relative to the SPX. If the stock is reporting the end of a fiscal year, the large red bars are annual EPS. At the bottom the black bars are volume.

AHGP reported a quarter of decelerating growth, but has very consistent annual growth over the last 5 years. It is now forming a base (I believe this would be a second stage base), and the ideal scenario here would be a handle that lsts anywhere from a week to a month, with a slight price deline and a rising price relative line. Cup and handle patterns lately have been less than ideal, but we could get a good one here. This does not get the volume to be considered a leading stock, but that could change if it begins another move up. Long term I think this one has pretty good prospects.

IGTE also reported a quarter of decelerating earnings, which may slow the recent straight up move it has made That move came off a 50% retracememt of the big move it made off the 2009 low. Earnings growth has slowed down quite a bit (the big jump in revenue this quarter was due to an acquisition they made), and this will probably start forming a real (not v shaped) base here.

NEI is new on the list this quarter, and this is the first time I graphed it with price data included. While the down trend it is in looks pretty frightening here, this is a linear chart: it doesn't look quite as bad on a log scale. It is going through some high growth right now, but that is coming off essentially zero, so that isn't saying much. We will really need to watch this for a couple of quarters before coming to any conclusions.

SYNA reported accelerating growth, and staged another breakout last week. This is still off it's 5 year high but is now among the leading stocks (it didn't make the list this week, but it likely will be on it in coming weeks). One word of caution: this is growing EPS on declining revenue. That situation won't last long.

VLTR also reported accelerating growth, and also staged a breakout move, this one hitting a new 5 year high. This one is showing signs of slowing growth, but the market may be anticipating a resumption of the high growth in the near future. This is also an early stage base that could be the beginning of a big long term move.

New Leadership Scan

2012-01-28T13:24:00.000-08:00

Ticker	Price as a % of 52 Wk H-L Range	EPS growth past 5 years	Return on Equity	50-Day Simple Moving Average	200-Day Simple Moving Average	20 day v/ms	X
CMG	100	0.32	0.23	0.1	0.18	14.41	0.08
CBOU	100	0.47	0.45	0.22	0.33	12.16	0.11
NVLS	97.9	0.29	0.27	0.21	0.4	40.44	0.19
ULTA	96.46	0.79	0.24	0.1	0.23	17.24	0.13
NANO	89.8	0.85	0.32	0.14	0.2	12.62	0.06
MELI	89.53	1.31	0.39	0.06	0.16	13.02	0.1
BWLD	86.94	0.33	0.17	0.03	0.06	22.57	0.03
HITK	86.86	0.32	0.29	0.03	0.25	26.4	0.22
FFIV	86.04	0.3	0.22	0.1	0.22	23.65	0.12
AGP	85.73	0.4	0.21	0.16	0.2	15.24	0.04
CF	85.19	0.49	0.32	0.18	0.18	30.42	0

This week I did not have to relax the standards because, allowing for holiday volume, I got 11 stocks this week that qualify. I expected AAPL to be on this list, but they just missed on volume. It might be a good idea to keep an eye on it anyway. I will be tracking this list during the week.

Earnings Summary

2012-01-28T12:31:00.000-08:00

I have 9 stocks from the earnings list reporting this week:

Reporting a quarter of accelerating earnings growth - VLTR, SYNA

Reporting a quarter of decelerating growth - IGTE, NEI, AHGP

Reporting a quarter of negative growth - ISSI, ESI, DEST, JVA

All spreadsheets have been updated.

Relative Strength By Industry

2012-01-28T11:41:00.000-08:00

Here are the top 30m industries in percentage of stocks in the relative strength range this week. This reinforces what I sawyesterday: the weaker groups are the ones that are moving up fastest now, and smaller groups are making larger percentage moves. I will be paying most attention to thise groups that have 4 or more categories highlighted.

Relative Strength Scans

2012-01-28T11:07:00.000-08:00

Here are the results of this week's relative strength scan. There are about 1150 stocks in the top 25% of their 52 week price ranges, a slight improvement over last week. From left to right, the fisrt 4 columns are the stocks retained from last week's list, the 5th column is the new stocks this week, and the 6th column is the stocks dropping off last week's list.

The spreadsheet will be uploaded later today.

Retained				New	Off
ACAT	GCO	MOH	TNH	AGCO	ASNA
ACHN	GLNG	MTH	TOL	CBST	BVSN
ADS	GPI	NUAN	ULTA	CF	BWA
AFFY	HITK	NVLS	URI	DDR	FSII
AFSI	HOS	OAS	VPHM	EL	MAS
AGP	IDIX	OCR	VVUS	FFIV	MBI
AKRX	JAG	ONXX	WCC	FINL	MELI
APOL	JAZZ	PDLI	WPRT	GCI	MJN
ARIA	JBL	PHM	ZUMZ	JBLU	MNTA
BIRT	JCP	PIR		LYB	NR
BWLD	KLAC	PSMT		PII	PKT
CALL	KOG	PVH		SDT	QCOR
CFX	LEN	PXD		TER	RATE
CLR	LIZ	PXP		TPX	RAX
CMG	LNG	REGN		TXT	RBN
CRI	LSCC	RYL		VLTR	SAH
DCT	LSI	SAFM		WDC	SGMS
DEI	LTD	SCSS		WTW	SNDK
DHI	LULU	SIMO		XLNX	VOC
DKS	LVS	SPPI
EAT	M	STMP
EQIX	MAKO	STX
EXP	MDVN	SWI
FTK	MIND	TIVO

Leader Charts

2012-01-28T07:57:00.000-08:00

Overall the leadership list had a good week, up about 2%, but there weren't nay that made big gains. HITK was the biggest gainer. This got hit hard twice (once on earnings, I don't know the reason for the second one) and has done nothing but go up since. It is now back above the 50dma and price relative is rising again. Last Friday (the blue arrows represent last Friday's candle) this looked like it was in the midst of a dead cat bounce, but as it turned out it was a lot stronger than that. This may be range bound for a while. That bottom pivot point is probably a lot stronger than it looks, and any retests there may be pretty good entry points.

BWLD was the second biggest gainer. This is also range bound but in an up trending channel. Last Friday it was right at the bottom of that channel, and got a bounce up. The bounce up looks a little weak to me, and it is up against a pivot point that seems to be throwing up resistance. The price relative line, in a word, sucks. It will take a catalyst to break out of this mess, and I believe it will be reporting soon.

QCOR was the biggest (of 2) decliners, but at less than 0.5% it wasn't much of a decline. this is also trying to find support after a big drop, and seems to have found it at the bottom of the October gap. The volume pattern is pretty bad here, with increasing volume on the way down. The price relative line isn't any better. This needs some more work.

FFIV was the second biggest decliner, losing a whopping 0.11 a share. This broke out a week ago, gapping up and trying to establish a new trading range. It briefly broke the support at the top of the gap, but quickly got back above it. This may be about as good an entry point as we are going to get.
The price relative line is not particularly strong, but at least it isn''t dropping the way it is on so many of the other leaders. This one got hammered pretty hard during the 2011 bear, but has come back quite strong.

Friday New Highs

2012-01-27T16:34:00.000-08:00

There were 131 new highs today, here is the list.

These are the top 10 industries on percentage of stocks making new highs:

Name	Stocks	NH	Pct
Foreign Utilities	3	2	66.67
Building Materials Wholesale	3	1	33.33
Cleaning Products	5	1	20
REIT - Industrial	15	3	20
REIT - Healthcare Facilities	11	2	18.18
Home Furnishing Stores	6	1	16.67
Home Furnishings & Fixtures	18	3	16.67
Recreational Vehicles	6	1	16.67
Regional Airlines	12	2	16.67
Surety & Title Insurance	6	1	16.67
Water Utilities	12	2	16.67

These are the high volume advancers and decliners from the relative strength list:

Advancers			Decliners
Ticker	Relative Volume	Change	Ticker	Relative Volume	Change
LNG	2.08	11.79%	IDIX	1.95	-0.14%
ACAT	2.38	7.24%	WPRT	1.98	-0.23%
STX	1.82	4.90%	RYL	2.15	-0.97%
KLAC	2.32	4.12%	MIND	1.91	-1.19%
CFX	1.8	3.80%	LSI	1.55	-1.40%
LSCC	3.41	3.16%	KOG	1.61	-2.27%
JAZZ	2.38	3.14%	OAS	1.51	-3.21%
DHI	1.51	1.91%	BVSN	4.58	-3.68%
JCP	4.18	1.72%
QCOR	1.91	1.36%
RBN	1.5	1.10%
EQIX	1.86	1.03%
SNDK	1.7	0.67%
MOH	1.8	0.00%

I will have a complete earnings summary this weekend, and will post the price relative scan on Sunday.

Friday Weekly Charts

2012-01-27T16:16:00.000-08:00

The market is now in the midst of what can best be described as a bullish pullback, with a possibility of pulling back to about 1290, depending on how long it lasts. Volume shrunk ont he way down, and we did come well of the day's low, so it does appear we are still in good stead fpr a resumption of the up trend. You can see that the pivot points didn't have much effect this month: we got up above R2 before finally stalling. I still have ti investigate why the pivot points changed mid month, as they are calculated on the data from the previous calender month and supposedly do not change.

We continue to march slowly up on the weekly chart. Here the momentum indicators are still rising, and approaching last year's high is not out of the question. We betteer get better volume than we are getting now, however.

The Nasdaq is getting nominally better volume, and is starting to assert leadership again. This should be runnig into hellacious resistance right about now, but so far seems unfazed.

It may seem paradoxical, but when the Dow is relatively weak, that is usually a bullish indication, and right now it's relative strength over the past few months seems to be about over. This could be hitting a new high next week.

The transports are not only making a pretty good move, they are also getting volume.

The Russell 2000, which had been so weak for the better part of a year, is now kicking it into gear and is rising pretty fast. It still has a long way to go, but if it continues leading, it will go far. Unfortunately, "far" might not even get it to last year's high. That's how hard this got hit during the correction/bear market.

Despite bad economic numbers (GDP absolutely sucked today), or perhaps because of it, the market continues higher on the hopes of more "liquidity" (read "money printing", or more accurately, "credit printing"). It won't go on forever, but it might long enough to get the "right" people elected this November. But then again, maybe not.

I will have the new highs update shortly.

SYNA

2012-01-27T13:21:00.000-08:00

SYNA has now teo straight quarters where it broke out on earnings, and is very likely to be back on the leadership list next week. One thing to note here is the placement of the pivot points: this one established a high before pulling back, which normally marks the middle of it's new trading rang. It never supposed that high until today, whihc may mean it is still in the same trading range, the top of which I calculate around 40. Although today's breakout was a bit weaker than the last one, I think that target is probably pretty reasonable.

WRLS

2012-01-27T13:17:00.000-08:00

WRLS has what looks like a nice breakout today, with a few warts. On the price relative line, I highlighted a couple of areas where it was dropping while the price was consolidating, something you really don;t want to see in a breakout stock. I calculated a top pivot point of about 8.75. Today's high was 8.73. I have a suspicion this one isn't going to be going a lot higher.

This Week's Industry Performance

2012-01-27T12:00:00.000-08:00

Here are the top 30 industries in percentage of stocks advancing for the last 5 days (not including today). Just as I suspected, most if the stocks moving up this week were from weak groups, the only leading industries here are very small. I will re run this tomorrow with the new relative strength data.

Market Leader Performance

2012-01-27T10:37:00.000-08:00

Ticker	Performance (Week)	Relative Volume	Change
BWLD	3.56%	0.53	0.27%
HITK	2.91%	0.33	0.26%
CMG	2.16%	0.39	-0.18%
CF	1.68%	0.79	2.67%
FFIV	0.68%	1.43	-0.58%
MELI	0.17%	0.26	1.02%
NVLS	0.11%	0.81	1.71%
ULTA	-0.90%	0.49	0.22%
QCOR	-4.03%	2.24	3.11%
AGP	-4.98%	0.55	3.32%

Here is the performance for the leaders for the last 5 days, not including today, along with today's relative volume and change.

BVSN

2012-01-27T08:46:00.000-08:00

I was right about a 50% retracement in BVSN, but quite wrong about the timing. Now I am looking to go long here.

Early Industry Leaders

2012-01-27T07:59:00.001-08:00

Name	Stocks	NH	Pct
Foreign Utilities	3	1	33.33
Recreational Vehicles	6	1	16.67
General Entertainment	8	1	12.5
Machine Tools & Accessories	8	1	12.5
Small Tools & Accessories	8	1	12.5
Department Stores	9	1	11.11
Broadcasting - Radio	11	1	9.09
REIT - Healthcare Facilities	11	1	9.09
Air Delivery & Freight Services	12	1	8.33
Regional Airlines	12	1	8.33
REIT - Retail	37	3	8.11
Insurance Brokers	13	1	7.69
Management Services	26	2	7.69
Specialty Chemicals	56	4	7.14
Rubber & Plastics	15	1	6.67
Health Care Plans	17	1	5.88
Mortgage Investment	17	1	5.88
Residential Construction	17	1	5.88
Home Furnishings & Fixtures	18	1	5.56
Data Storage Devices	19	1	5.26
REIT - Office	19	1	5.26
Auto Parts	39	2	5.13
Paper & Paper Products	20	1	5
Technical & System Software	20	1	5
Trucking	23	1	4.35
Computer Peripherals	24	1	4.17
Shipping	50	2	4
REIT - Residential	26	1	3.85
Rental & Leasing Services	26	1	3.85
Regional - Pacific Banks	55	2	3.64

These are the early industry leaders in percentage of stocks making new highs.

Today's Pivot Points

2012-01-27T07:33:00.001-08:00

Floor		Woodie's		Camarilla		Demark
R3	1349.94	R2	1340.85	R4	1329.36	High	1335.89
R2	1341.7	R1	1328.37	R3	1323.89	Low	1316.02
R1	1330.07	P	1320.98	R2	1322.07
P	1321.83	S1	1308.5	R1	1320.25
S1	1310.2	S2	1301.11	S1	1316.61
S2	1301.96			S2	1314.79
S3	1290.33			S3	1312.97
				S4	1307.5